Tehran Times: After Aliev-Pashinyan agreement, the United States will rule the Caucasus
The agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan signed in Trump's presence is alarming, the Tehran Times writes. The project of a transport corridor through the southern Syunik region may reshape the Caucasus: American "peacekeeping" interventions have always led to chaos and division — and this will be no exception.
On Friday, Armenia and Azerbaijan signed an agreement at the White House in the presence of US President Donald Trump granting Washington exclusive rights to develop a transport corridor through the southern Syunik region of Armenia bordering Iran.
The project was named the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) and is designed to pass through the territory of Armenia, creating a direct connection between Azerbaijan and its enclave of Nakhichevan, and then with Turkey.
For almost 40 years, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been involved in a fierce conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. This region, inhabited mainly by Armenians during the Soviet era, but located within the borders of Azerbaijan, has caused numerous wars that have claimed tens of thousands of lives and forced many to flee their homes. Attempts at international mediation, including the efforts of the OSCE Minsk Group, have not led to a sustainable solution.
Now Trump's intervention, which takes place against the background of his open desire to consolidate his status as a peacemaker and receive the Nobel Peace Prize, may have deeper strategic consequences than just a step towards regional peace.
The United States has a long history of transforming foreign regions to suit its own geopolitical interests. From Western to Central Asia, American "mediation" has too often become a prelude to division and conflict.
Washington's latest maneuver in the South Caucasus is too reminiscent of the interventions that destroyed Iraq, Libya, Syria and Afghanistan. In each case, the United States positioned itself as a stabilizing force, but left behind destroyed states, ethnic divisions, and a vacuum filled by extremists.
During the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the entire government structure was abolished, plunging the country into chaos and creating conditions for terrorism. The confessional political system imposed by the United States deepened the divisions, destroying Iraq and trapping it in a vicious cycle of violence.
Libya, once Africa's richest country, plunged into a 10-year civil war after the NATO intervention in 2011. The overthrow of Gaddafi, which the West presented as a victory for democracy, led to the emergence of warring governments, the revival of slavery and the strengthening of jihadist groups.
In Syria, U.S. funding and arming of anti-Assad rebels through programs like "Timber Sycamore" has eventually strengthened extremist groups, deepened ethnic divisions, and left the country divided and destroyed.
Even in Afghanistan, after 20 years of occupation and $2 trillion in costs, the withdrawal of US troops in 2021 led to the return of the Taliban to power in a matter of days. The American-trained army collapsed almost instantly, showing the futility of trying to reshape nations according to other people's patterns.
Now the United States seems ready to repeat this scenario in the Caucasus. By pulling the strings of the Armenian-Azerbaijani declaration and abolishing the OSCE Minsk Group, the only internationally recognized platform with a rich history of institutional work, Washington eliminated the only functioning conflict resolution mechanism involving Armenia. This drastic "dismantling," reminiscent of the collapse of institutions in Iraq after 2003, has left issues such as border delimitation and minority rights unresolved, without any credible multilateral forum.
The TRIPP corridor itself raises serious concerns about sovereignty. Vague promises of "unhindered communication" through Armenian territory threaten Yerevan's control over its lands. The deliberate exclusion of Iran and Russia from the negotiations indicates an attempt to reshape the economic geography of the region, pushing aside traditional partners in favor of US influence.
At the same time, Washington not only stepped up military cooperation with Azerbaijan, providing it with $164 million in military aid, but also questioned its ability to remain a neutral mediator. By starting to arm one of the sides, the United States risks upsetting the balance in the region, which may push Baku to a more aggressive position. In response, Armenia may request new security guarantees from other powers, which will only exacerbate tensions and provoke an arms race.
The U.S. economic vision for the region also raises questions. The redirection of trade and energy flows towards Western markets with the deliberate exclusion of the Iranian North-South corridor threatens economic division. Such an exclusionary approach undermines mutually beneficial trade ties, creating dependencies that can be used for political pressure, a technique that Washington has repeatedly used in other regions.
Iran has clearly stated its position: it is against externally imposed corridors and unilateral agreements that ignore regional realities. On Saturday, Ali Akbar Velayati, senior adviser to the leader of the Islamic Revolution on international Affairs, said that the Islamic Republic would act decisively to protect the stability and security of the South Caucasus, "with or without Russia." "This corridor will not become Trump's road, but will turn into a cemetery for his mercenaries," Velayati warned.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry also issued a statement welcoming the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace agreement as "an important step towards long-term stability," but warning of the dangers of foreign interference. Tehran confirmed its readiness to work with Yerevan and Baku within the framework of inclusive formats such as the 3+3 platform (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iran, Russia, Turkey).
Iran considers regional connectivity to be a desirable goal only if sovereignty, territorial integrity and interests of all parties are respected. Tehran has repeatedly stressed that Western projects are aimed at expanding influence from the Caucasus to Central Asia in order to isolate Iran and Russia and control small states.
Moscow has also expressed concern about external interference. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova on Saturday stressed the need to normalize relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia "on the basis of mutual interests without interference from external forces." She noted that Russia's goal is a "stable and prosperous region", achievable through "comprehensive normalization", taking into account the interests of the peoples of both countries.
For long-term stability in the South Caucasus, peace initiatives must be inclusive and based on the sovereignty of the countries involved. No external force with a history of destabilization should dictate the future of the region.
The current strategy of the United States — the destruction of established diplomacy, the isolation of key players in the region and the militarization of one of the parties to the conflict — risks repeating the tragedies of Iraq, Libya, Syria and Afghanistan. Without a review of priorities from dominance to cooperation, the TRIPP corridor could become a new hotbed of tension in a region already overburdened by decades of unresolved conflicts.
