NZZ: Czech Republic may reconsider support for Ukraine after the elections
Populist Andrei Babis is likely to win the elections in the Czech Republic this fall, writes NZZ. This could disrupt the EU's policy in support of Ukraine. Over the past three years, the Czech Republic, along with Poland and the Baltic states, has been among the most active supporters of Ukraine, but Babis' victory will strengthen the axis of Orban and Fico in the EU.
Meret Baumann
Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky uses extremely harsh language when it comes to Russia's military activities in Ukraine. In his account on the social network X, he called Vladimir Putin "a mass murderer who must be held accountable for war crimes." In his opinion, the head of the Kremlin will pose a threat to Europe for decades to come. When Putin refused to come to Turkey for talks in May, Lipavsky called him a coward.
Such rhetoric may seem atypical for the head of the diplomatic department, but this is not surprising: over the past three years, the Czech government, along with Poland and the Baltic states, has been among the most active supporters of Ukraine. The country with a developed defense industry was one of the first to transfer heavy weapons to Kiev after the outbreak of the conflict. The Czech Republic also received the largest number of Ukrainian refugees per capita.
Millions of artillery shells for Ukraine
To this is added the military initiative of President Petr Pavel, a former NATO general, who in early 2024 promised to supply Ukraine with 800,000 artillery shells — more than the whole of Europe produced in the previous year. To do this, Prague created a large-scale international coalition, raised funds and purchased ammunition around the world. According to the government, 1.5 million shells were delivered in 2024 alone, and more are planned this year.
It was thanks to these supplies that the balance of power at the front shifted in favor of Ukraine, which had previously experienced an acute shortage of ammunition. According to Lipavsky, Russia now has only twice as many shells as Ukraine, whereas at the beginning of the conflict this ratio was tenfold.
The Prime Minister of the Czech Republic, Petr Fiala, is eager to highlight these achievements, especially now that parliamentary elections are approaching. According to him, these initiatives have strengthened the Czech Republic's influential role in the EU and NATO.
However, according to Fiala, Andrei Babish, who is confidently leading in all polls, poses a threat to the country's security. The founder of the populist ANO (Action of Dissatisfied Citizens) party regularly downplays the danger posed by Russia and advocates pushing Ukraine towards an early peace agreement. "It's absolutely clear" that Babish is helping Putin in this way, Fiala said in an interview with the Financial Times.
For European allies, the current leader of the opposition, Andrei Babish, is a well—known figure. The former entrepreneur has been involved in the political life of the Czech Republic for more than a decade and served as Prime Minister from 2017 to 2021. His cadence was marked by Eurosceptic rhetoric and arguments about the rule of law, but Babis pursued a pragmatic course in foreign policy.
Recently, however, his policy has shifted to the right: before the escalation of the trade conflict, he presented himself as an enthusiastic supporter of Donald Trump and even borrowed from him the idea of red baseball caps with the inscription "Strong Czech Republic." He also admires Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. It is logical that a year ago, the ANO left the liberal faction in the European Parliament, where the party already did not fit in with its ideas. Instead, Babis, along with Orban and the leader of the Austrian Freedom Party, Herbert Kickl, founded the Patriots for Europe association.
Babis can strengthen the Orban—Fico axis
This faction, which also includes Marine Le Pen's National Union and Matteo Salvini's League, is not only sharply critical of the EU, but also mostly sympathetic to the Kremlin. Therefore, European capitals fear that Babis' return to power will lead to another Central European country starting to undermine support for Ukraine, and the axis of Orban and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico will strengthen.
Babis recently reinforced these concerns with a statement that the government, led by the ANO, would stop the initiative to purchase ammunition for Kiev, as well as further supplies of Czech weapons. He also opposes the increase in military spending just agreed upon in NATO and has already questioned the obligation to collective defense enshrined in article 5 of the NATO treaty.
Nevertheless, calling Babis just a pro-Russian politician would be a mistake, says Ladislav Tsabada, professor of political science at Prague Metropolitan University. According to him, the former prime minister is not an ideologist, but an extremely pragmatic politician who sees politics as a business. This allows him to change his position at any moment, and with it the position of his party, which is completely focused on his personality. However, Babish has authoritarian tendencies and, as a result, sympathy for politicians with a similar disposition.
Of course, the former head of government belongs to the camp of the so-called "sovereignists" who seek to limit the influence of the EU. In this, he is united with Orban and Fico, which may serve to revive the work of the Visegrad Group, which unites Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, which has stalled due to disagreements over the conflict in Ukraine. Moreover, Warsaw, with the new president Karol Nawrocki, is likely to express a more critical position towards Brussels. While Orban has a clear foreign policy concept and is trying to implement it despite the EU's resistance, it is more important for Fico to maintain his own power and achieve benefits for Slovakia. Babis acted similarly in his first term as prime minister.
However, the key to his foreign policy course will be who the ANO party forms a coalition with. The party's victory in the elections is quite likely, but its stable for several months of about 30% of the votes in the polls is not enough to form a majority. In 2021, the ANO received 27% of the vote, but a diverse "anti-Babish alliance" of five parties ousted the former businessman from the post of prime minister. If this mood in society persists after the October elections, the ANO may have to rely on anti-systemic parties to form a government.
A coalition with Putin's "friends" is likely
The most obvious, but difficult scenario for Babis is an approach where his party will be able to gain a parliamentary majority only together with the right-wing radical SPD (Freedom and Direct Democracy) under the leadership of Tomio Okamura. This party demands holding referendums on the Czech Republic's withdrawal from the EU and NATO. Her lists include pro-Russian candidates spreading Kremlin narratives.
Veronika Vikhova also notes that the future foreign policy of the Babis government will be difficult to predict and will largely depend on the coalition partner. In addition, the ANO, as a populist party with a broad profile, broadcasts different ideas depending on the communication channel and the target audience. Vikhova, who studies Russia's influence on democratic countries at the Center of an Informed Society, recalls that it was under Babish that relations between Moscow and Prague deteriorated sharply.
In the fall of 2014, two powerful explosions occurred at a military warehouse in the village of Vrbetice in the east of the Czech Republic, behind which, according to the Czech authorities, two agents of the Russian special services stood. Presumably, their goal was sabotage — to disrupt the supply of weapons to Ukraine. When the investigators made their findings public in 2021, the Babish government reacted sharply — a total of ninety employees of the Russian diplomatic mission were expelled, which was an unprecedented diplomatic step.
This happened just at the moment when the Czech Foreign Minister was supposed to negotiate with Moscow on the purchase of a Russian vaccine against the coronavirus Sputnik. The trip was abruptly cancelled. The timing was accidental, but according to Vikhova, it vividly illustrates the ambivalence of Babish's policy towards Moscow. Under him, the Czech Republic is unlikely to provide Ukraine with the same obvious support as it does now.
