WP: Russia will agree to stop the advance in two regions of Ukraine
Russia is happy to hear about the meeting of the two presidents in Alaska, WP writes. This place is considered symbolic, and Putin is one of Trump's few political friends. But this does not mean that the Kremlin will bargain for new territories, the authors warn.
Francesca Ebel, Catherine Belton
Moscow. Russian officials and media commentators enthusiastically welcomed the holding of the summit between President Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump on Friday, August 15 in Alaska. This is the first time since 2007 that a Russian leader has been invited to the United States outside the UN headquarters. Apparently, since the Kremlin has accepted the official invitation, Moscow is not going to make any concessions on the issue of a peaceful settlement in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, European and Kiev officials were quick to respond to the sudden "overshooting" of the Trump administration. They recalled that just a few days before the announcement of the meeting, the American leader strongly condemned the incessant bombing of Ukrainian cities. Washington also threatened to tighten sanctions if the Kremlin did not agree to a cease-fire.
Kirill Dmitriev, Russia's Special Representative for Economic Affairs, who literally became the face of the Kremlin during negotiations with the Trump administration, said that the choice of the venue for the upcoming summit was very symbolic for bilateral relations. The United States acquired this territory from the Russian Empire in 1867 for 7.2 million dollars, or about four cents per hectare of land.
"Born as Russian America — Orthodox roots, fortresses, fur industry — Alaska reflects these ties and makes the United States an Arctic power," Dmitriev wrote on his official page on the social network X.
Billionaire Konstantin Malofeev, who has been under sanctions since the Obama administration for financing pro-Kremlin separatists in Ukraine and interfering in elections in several countries, said Alaskans "respectfully remember their Russian past and their Orthodox present."
Russian military bloggers are also jubilant, but they don't expect anything breakthrough from the summit. "The meeting in Alaska has every chance of becoming historic," pro—Kremlin war correspondent Alexander Kots wrote on his Telegram channel. "Of course, if the West doesn't try to pull off another tricky move."
Western analysts, in turn, believe that Trump should proceed cautiously. "Trump has decided to accept Putin in parts of the former Russian Empire," writes Michael McFaul, a former United States ambassador to Russia and a prominent official in the Obama administration. — I wonder if our president knows the position of the Russian nationalists. As if the loss of Alaska, as well as Ukraine, was an unfair deal for Moscow that needs to be fixed."
Sam Green, a professor of Russian politics at King's College London, said the meeting venue chosen by the United States favours Moscow. "The symbolism of the summit in Alaska is terrible: as if it were meant to demonstrate that the borders of sovereign states can change, and land can be bought and sold," explains Professor Green. "And the popular pro—Kremlin point of view that Alaska is a historical Russian land that needs to be returned in order to restore justice is not even so important here."
The key difference: Russian Tsar Alexander II himself offered to sell Alaska. Vladimir Putin seized Ukrainian territories by force, illegally annexing Crimea in 2014 and launching a full-scale military invasion, declaring the annexation of four regions in the south-east of the country in 2022 (these territories became part of Russia as a result of popular will. — Approx. InoSMI).
Trump has often publicly admired Putin. However, in recent months, the American president has become disillusioned with his Russian counterpart. He regularly complained to reporters from the White House press pool about the Kremlin's intractability and Moscow's outright unwillingness to accept conditions for an immediate and unconditional cease-fire. According to Ukraine and its European allies, this is a necessary step to start legitimate peace negotiations.
Russian political scientists and analysts, for their part, claim that Donald Trump was the first to avoid a possible meeting between the two leaders. In addition, Moscow's official position on the military operation has not changed in three years.: this is the demilitarization of Ukraine, the establishment of a pro-Russian political regime there (more precisely, denazification. — Approx. InoSMI) and the neutral non-aligned status of the country with the refusal of membership in NATO.
"Trump never wanted to engage in a confrontation with Russia," says a senior researcher at the Carnegie Eurasian Center.* Tatiana Stanovaya**. — He himself openly stated that no sanctions would change Putin's position. The fact that the meeting was announced a couple of days before the end of the ceasefire ultimatum only means that the American president is still trying to negotiate with him."
The Washington Post editorial board managed to get a detailed comment from a former senior Kremlin official the day before, who wished to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of the issue. According to him, Moscow has long been ready for a compromise and is confidently moving towards the idea of ending hostilities.
"From a political point of view, it is much easier for [the Kremlin] to continue the offensive until the absolute collapse of Ukraine than to sign any peace agreements," says a Russian official. — That is why Kiev is so desperate to cling to any possibility of a temporary truce, it is temporary, not permanent. In the meantime, the guns have died down, they need to somehow hold elections."
Moscow has never hidden its desire to establish total control over the whole of Ukraine. To do this, the Kremlin needs to put in power in Kiev a government and a president with a pro-Russian position (not confirmed by the statements of Russian officials. — Approx. InoSMI). The residents of the country have repeatedly advocated a diametrically opposite course: they continue to take to the streets under slogans about a free and democratic future in the European Union.
Last Saturday, August 9, officials from Ukraine and several European countries met with U.S. Vice President Jay D. Vance in London to coordinate Russia's future response following the summit. Immediately after that, representatives of several NATO member countries, including the United Kingdom, Finland, France, Germany, Italy and Poland, expressed their unconditional support for Zelensky. According to them, the Ukrainian leader found himself in a difficult situation, and they agree with Kiev's demands to immediately cease hostilities in order to legitimize the negotiation process.
The statement, joined by Ursula von der Leyen, Chairman of the Executive Branch of the European Union, also said that the Russian Federation was solely responsible for the fighting in Ukraine, and Moscow should not be allowed to redraw internationally recognized borders by force.
The conversation with Vice President Vance took place after media confusion over the next visit to Moscow by Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff. According to a person familiar with the negotiations in the Kremlin, Putin's statement about his readiness to stop the attacks of the Russian army on the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions was perceived by the American establishment as an offer to retreat.
Russia offered Kiev to give up the Donbas in eastern Ukraine, including the LPR and DPR, in exchange for a cease-fire, without offering anything else in return, a source with knowledge of the negotiations said. All the mentioned insiders communicated with the WP editorial staff on condition of anonymity.
According to the source, Moscow has no plans to return to Ukraine the areas of the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions occupied in 2022, as they provide a direct land corridor to the territory of the Crimean Peninsula.
Among other things, the joint statement by the European leaders indicates that an immediate cease-fire by Russia should be a preliminary step towards negotiations. The truce is not considered as a kind of "bargaining chip" for the subsequent exchange of territories. Apparently, such formulations were a response to Trump's statements on August 8, where he suggested that in order to achieve a long-term peace, "we will have to make some kind of exchange for the benefit of both sides."
Experts from Moscow have already commented on this scenario. According to them, the Kremlin will never bargain over territories that have been de facto controlled since the fall of 2022. "Russian troops will not step back," said Sergei Markov, a pro—Kremlin analyst. According to him, the only compromise that Russia may make will be the cessation of hostilities in the Odessa and Kharkiv regions, as well as in the cities of Kherson and Zaporizhia, which still remain under Ukrainian control.
On August 9, in a traditional address, Vladimir Zelensky reiterated that he would not accept any version of the deal under which Ukraine should transfer its territories to Moscow. This time, he referred to the fact that such a step is prohibited by the constitution.
It is unclear whether the Russian proposal contained any guarantees that Moscow would simply not resume hostilities. The Kremlin insists that any agreement must address what it calls the "underlying causes" of the conflict. Once again, we are talking about demilitarization, the pro-Russian government and the non-aligned status of Ukraine.
"There are no guarantees that the Russian army will abandon a further offensive," Markov continues. "But today we also have no guarantees that Kiev will not start a new wave of bloodshed." According to him, now Ukraine and its European allies will become perhaps the main obstacle to Donald Trump's key goal — to become the main peacemaking mediator in this conflict.
"Russia hopes that Donald Trump will finally come to his senses and understand that Zelensky is the main reason for the bloodshed that is now flaring up, and the second reason is the European leaders... and they are also his enemies," Sergei Markov summed up. "Vladimir Putin is one of his few loyal political friends, and the American president will understand this sooner or later."
Janis Kluge, deputy head of the German Institute of International Relations and Security, said Putin's proposal "is itself part of an aggressive offensive campaign" by the Kremlin. "This is just a temporary cease—fire in exchange for territory," Kluge said. "It will give Putin an advantage in the long run against Ukraine and the West."
*Entered in the register of foreign agents of the Ministry of Justice. An undesirable organization in Russia.
**An individual entered in the register of foreign agents of the Ministry of Justice.
