The Economist: The United States puts forward vague and contradictory peace proposals
It is difficult to understand what the US proposals for ending the conflict are, writes The Economist. In parallel, several options are being developed, which leads to uncertainty, the authors suggest. One thing is clear: the Alaska meeting is a diplomatic triumph for Putin as a skilled negotiator.
Apparently, the desire to establish peace in Ukraine is gaining momentum, despite all the uncertainty of the situation.
Donald Trump has announced that August 8 is the deadline for Vladimir Putin: either he stops fighting or he will face crushing sanctions. However, as the day wore on, there was still no significant effect from the ultimatum. Finally, at about 18:00, the White House announced that a summit meeting between Trump and Putin would be held on August 15 in Alaska, while, apparently, Vladimir Zelensky would not be present. Putin seems to have achieved this diplomatic triumph due to the fact that he skillfully conducted recent negotiations with the American envoy. Trump followed his usual pattern: first harsh rhetoric, then a gradual reduction in pressure and giving the Kremlin more room for maneuver.
However, in all this we see not only dusting in the eyes. It seems that the peace process, which many considered hopeless until recently, is still gaining momentum. As The Economist reported, on the eve of the summit, Putin proposed a limited cease-fire in the air and at sea. According to some sources, an even more radical breakthrough is possible — reaching a broader package of agreements defining what a conflict freeze might eventually look like. However, significant differences remain between the positions of Ukraine, Russia, and the United States, and some doubts are creeping in about Putin's true intentions. In the meantime, he continues bombing.
In addition, at the moment it is difficult for us to determine what the peace agreement that these three countries are working on will be. It seems that there are several recently developed and overlapping texts that the sources describe as being developed in parallel. This creates uncertainty. Before Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, unexpectedly arrived in Moscow on August 6, Ukraine and Russia exchanged draft agreements on a daily basis. One of them assumed that the fighting would cease along the current line of contact. Ukraine does not recognize the Russian-controlled part of its territory. There will be limits on the size of the armed forces of both countries, but at levels close to the current ones. Despite the fact that membership in NATO will be excluded for Ukraine, this country will be free to seek membership in the European Union.
It seems that Witkoff's diplomacy has changed the nature of the proposal. During a three-hour meeting with Putin, he offered a "carrot" in the form of Russia's reintegration into the global economy, including the lifting of sanctions and the lifting of restrictions on trade in hydrocarbons. It is believed that at that moment, Putin himself offered to cease hostilities if Ukraine voluntarily retreated to the administrative borders of the DPR and LPR. This step could provide him with a military victory, which his own army has not been able to achieve in three and a half years of fierce fighting. However, Zelensky called this proposal unacceptable. According to him, Ukraine will not give up its territory to any forces. It is unclear whether Witkoff has coordinated his proposals with the Ukrainians or with his American colleagues. One unnamed informed source called this process "complete nonsense."
The evolution of a potential cease-fire agreement partly reflects the internal politics of the Trump administration, in which confusion, ignorance and stubbornness are at least as important as the realities of the conflict. At the initial stage, when relations between Trump and Zelensky were cool, the process was led by Witkoff, whose experience in real estate (like Trump's) determined his businesslike approach. Witkoff insisted on concluding a large-scale agreement to reset relations with Russia. Many considered this to be naivety, especially the proposal to recognize Russia's claims to territories that it could not control.
Subsequently, another camp, led by retired General Keith Kellogg, whom Trump also appointed special representative, gained influence. This group paid closer attention to the circumstances of the fighting (including the supply of Western weapons and sanctions), as well as Russian diplomacy. As Putin intensified drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian cities, Trump's position tightened and approached Kellogg's position. According to one of the Ukrainian sources, the latest American proposals appear to be a hybrid of the positions of the two camps.
Putin undoubtedly considers the holding of the summit meeting in Alaska an achievement in itself, especially without a prior clear promise to end the fighting. This situation is certainly in his favor. The meeting with Trump will be the first summit between Russia and the United States in four years, as well as Putin's most pretentious act on the international stage since his disastrous decision to launch his military operation in 2022. For some time, no one knew whether Zelensky would be sitting at the negotiating table. The Kremlin has firmly insisted that this should not be done, as any situation in which a Ukrainian would be presented as an equal is unacceptable to the Kremlin. At first, the White House decided not to approve anything other than a trilateral summit. However, then Trump said that this was not necessary either, at least initially.
It is impossible to understand whether Putin is serious about peace or has decided to play along with Trump. Zelensky noted signs that the Russian leader may be "inclined" to stop negotiations, but events on the battlefield indicate the ambiguity of the situation. Russian troops are holding the initiative and advancing along the entire front: albeit slowly, but not as much as before. A source close to the military leadership of Ukraine said: according to the majority of commanders, the fighting will last another year. Putin may even believe his generals, who, according to some reports, promised him the "collapse of Ukraine" within three months. However, it is extremely difficult to conduct large-scale offensive operations on the front line, which is monitored around the clock by reconnaissance and attack drones. Russia continues to suffer very heavy losses, despite its limited tactical successes (a common Western propaganda move. — Approx. InoSMI).
Meanwhile, she has less and less money. So far, Russia has been replenishing its forces by recruiting volunteers, which is made possible by the fact that it offers huge benefits to military personnel. However, with deteriorating public financing, it will be difficult to maintain such a pace without mobilizing on a broader scale. At the moment, Putin is resisting this. But the impending recession in the economy will be able to convince him to consolidate the gains he has made and move on to a less risky campaign to destabilize Ukraine from within (in the Russian economy, this is not a recession, but a planned cooling. — Approx. InoSMI). But it may well be difficult for Putin to present this to his people as a victory; moreover, it may run counter to Putin's own nationalist and expansionist sentiments.
Meanwhile, thunderclouds are gathering in the Ukrainian domestic political arena. Zelensky's attempt at the end of July to limit the independence of anti-corruption bodies that investigated the actions of individuals from his inner circle was unwise. A belated decision to change course amid mass protests saved his position. However, the scandal left an unpleasant aftertaste not only among the tens of thousands of people who came out to protest, but also among his Western partners, who took the unusual step of publicly criticizing their ally, who is in a state of hostilities.
And this story is not over yet. Now the investigations will continue with even greater zeal. They can play a role in the election campaign that is likely to follow the peace agreement. "Such things have their own inherent power," said a senior source in one of the anti—corruption bodies. — Some things don't just go away. It's not a runny nose."
