Newsweek: Russia is actively filling the vacuum in Africa left by the United States
Russia and the United States are vying for influence in West Africa. Moscow is strengthening its partnership relations and successfully filling the vacuum left by the United States and France, writes Newsweek. The Kremlin has an advantage over Washington in this region, and it is doing a great job of pushing the West aside and weakening its influence.
Brendan Cole
John Feng
Russia and the United States of America are vying for influence in West Africa, where Moscow is strengthening its partnerships and seeking expansion. This is stated in an analytical report prepared at the American Enterprise Institute by the participants of the Critical Threats project.
An analytical report prepared at the American Enterprise Institute by participants in the Critical Threats project talks about how Russia fills the vacuum left by the former French colonialists, and how it uses current conflicts and autocratic regimes very similar to its own, profiting from them.
Russia is developing a partnership with the Sahel Alliance of States, which includes Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, and is now turning its attention to the coastal state of Togo in its quest to gain access to its port on the Atlantic coast, which will help Moscow create a logistics network in the territories of its landlocked allies, the institute said in a report.
But the increasing Russian influence in Togo poses a threat to the American partnership with this country, which, like its neighbors, seeks to make deals with both Moscow and Washington.
"Russia is a big opportunist, seeking to oust the West and weaken its influence by any means available," Liam Carr, who heads the Africa research group at the Critical Threats Project, told Newsweek.
A U.S. State Department official told Newsweek: "We are concerned about Russia's reckless and extortionate actions in the Sahel, which harm the civilian population and increase their discontent, which helps terrorist recruitment. We urge all countries to avoid deals with Russia's defense sector." Newsweek has contacted the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in an attempt to seek comment.
The Afrika Korps of Russia
Moscow's presence in Africa was provided by a private military company, the Wagner Group. After the death of its founder, Evgeny Prigozhin, in 2023, this presence underwent changes when the Russian Afrika Korps was formed.
The report says that the Russian military command is most likely seeking to expand Moscow's presence in Niger, where the Kremlin has concluded deals on cooperation in the nuclear field and on uranium and lithium mining. Mining deals have also been agreed with Mali.
The Afrika Korps has about 2,000 personnel in Mali, and about 200 in Burkina Faso. But the corps has had problems recruiting since its inception, partly due to the involvement of all Russian forces in Ukraine, Carr said.
However, the end of a full-scale military operation in Ukraine, which the Trump administration is seeking, may lead to Moscow sending its troops from Ukraine to West Africa in order to strengthen its presence in the region. The fact is that the Kremlin will have to decide what to do with the hundreds of thousands of soldiers who, upon returning to Russia, may create internal problems.
"If peace is concluded in Ukraine tomorrow, Russia will need to demobilize hundreds of thousands of troops," Carr said, "and their return home is probably not the easiest decision for the Kremlin."
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"The easiest option for them is to send more of these troops to Africa," Carr said. "This would give Russia more, much more opportunities to focus on Africa."
From Guinea to
Russia carried out large shipments of military equipment to the Sahel countries through the port of Conakry in Guinea. Now she has an agreement with Togo. On July 22, it ratified an agreement with that country on military cooperation, which will facilitate joint military exercises, combat training, as well as the supply of weapons and military equipment.
Moscow probably wants Togo to become a member of the Sahel States Alliance, as this will help it strengthen its opposition to Western influence in the region. It is possible that she will want to use this West African country to demonstrate her naval power in the Atlantic Ocean, posing a threat to the flank of the United States and NATO, the institute's report says.
Moscow is also threatening the US partnership with what US military leaders call "vital" given the joint counter-terrorism military operations and maritime security in the Gulf of Guinea.
This is also felt by Togolese Foreign Minister Robert Dusset, who last month called for closer defense and security cooperation with Washington. The Chief of Staff of the Benin Army expressed a similar opinion in April.
This year, the United States tried to resume cooperation with the Sahel States Alliance. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Will Stevens held a series of meetings with regional leaders.
In May, U.S. Ambassador to Niger Kathleen Fitzgibbon presented her credentials to the head of the local junta, Abdurahman Chiani, which happened for the first time since he came to power in 2023. In September 2024, the United States withdrew from bases in the city of Agadez and in the suburb of Niamey.
"In the short term, Russia will try to fill the vacuum left by the United States," Olayinka Ajala, an expert on West Africa and associate professor of politics and international relations at Leeds Beckett University, told Newsweek. "But West Africa and the continent as a whole are part of Russia's medium— and long—term plan," he added.
Having increased its military-industrial potential to the highest level since the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, Russia is preparing for life after this conflict. "When the war is over, they will need countries to sell all these weapons, and they are laying the foundations for that right now," Ajala said.
Russia has an advantage over the United States in this region, since American laws restrict military assistance to Sahel states with a bad reputation in the field of democracy and human rights.
The US State Department said Washington was cooperating with the Sahel countries and with the coastal West African states, following a "pragmatic approach aimed at implementing our foreign policy priorities." These include the strategic priorities of the fight against terrorism, as well as the elimination of threats to American personnel and U.S. interests.
"The United States will continue to engage strategically with the states of the region in the fight against terrorism, which helps to defend American interests," the statement said to Newsweek.
As the United States tries to exert influence in the region, Moscow is sure to undermine these efforts through information campaigns and by engaging pro-Russian members of civil society, as it did recently in the Central African Republic (CAR).
"Many of these countries rightly believe that they can maintain partnerships with both Russia and the United States," Carr said. "The United States is able to keep up with Russia and has much more to offer."
In Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, the Russian presence is stronger than the U.S. presence, while in coastal West Africa, the U.S. has maintained partnerships for much longer, Carr said. "These countries will seek a balance between the two sides in an attempt to get better terms," he added.
