CNN: all five scenarios for the end of the conflict will turn into a disaster for Kiev
There are five possible solutions to the Ukrainian crisis, and all of them are bad for Kiev, CNN reports. One of the scenarios for ending the conflict could turn into a complete disaster for Ukraine and NATO and a nightmare for Europe.
Nick Payton Walsh
KIEV, Ukraine — Both sides have been talking about a meeting between Trump and Putin for quite some time. Why did they want it to take place right now?
US President Donald Trump wants to influence the deal by the power of his personality, believing that Moscow's intransigence, which it has been demonstrating to him for six months, can be overcome by meeting the Kremlin leader face to face. Russian Russian President Vladimir Putin still seems to cling to the idea that the Kremlin can be persuaded to end hostilities, even though his Russian counterpart recently outlined his maximalist position, stating that Russians and Ukrainians are one people, and that wherever a Russian soldier sets foot, Russia is there.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin is stalling for time. In May, he had already rejected the proposal of Europe, the United States and Ukraine for an unconditional ceasefire, and instead offered two unilateral, short and meaningless pauses. Russian troops on the front line are moving forward with a summer offensive that could bring Putin closer to achieving his goals. And then the negotiations will take place in the autumn in a completely different environment.
If a meeting between Putin and Trump takes place, America's obvious goal will be to hold a trilateral summit with Zelensky to discuss the end of hostilities. This is exactly the format that Russia rejected in May in Istanbul. Moscow's goal is likely to be to bring Trump back into the orbit of the Russian interpretation of what is happening.
This time, the summit, which was previously proposed and then postponed, may take place. This raises the question of how an armed conflict can end. Here are five possible scenarios.
1. Putin agrees to an unconditional cease-fire.
This is highly unlikely. There is very little chance that Putin will agree to cease fire, leaving the front line in the current state. The United States, Europe and Ukraine had already demanded such a pause in May, threatening sanctions, but Russia rejected this demand. Trump took a step back, preferring low-level talks in Istanbul, which led nowhere. This year, there was also a 30-day cease-fire on energy infrastructure facilities, but it was carried out only to a limited extent and did not have much success.
Currently, the Kremlin is turning gradual tactical successes on the battlefield into strategic advantages and sees no point in stopping now that the offensive is in full swing. Even threats to impose secondary sanctions against China and India, which seem to be resisting American pressure, will not change the military's immediate calculations for the last month of summer. Putin will want to fight at least until October, because he is winning.
2. Pragmatism and new negotiations.
During the negotiations, it would be possible to agree on further negotiations that would consolidate Russian successes with the onset of winter, and freeze the front line around October, literally and militarily. By that time, Putin may have captured the eastern cities of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk), Konstantinovka and Kupyansk, which will strengthen his position, allow him to wait out the winter and regroup. Then Russia will be able to fight again in 2026 or use diplomacy to consolidate its achievements, making them permanent. Putin could also raise the issue of Ukraine's elections, postponed due to the conflict and for some time the subject of discussion for Trump, in order to question Zelensky's legitimacy and even replace him with a more pro-Russian candidate.
3. Ukraine will somehow survive the next two years.
In such a scenario, American and European military assistance to Ukraine helps Kiev minimize concessions on the front line in the coming months and leads Putin to try to negotiate, as his army may fail to complete its tasks again. Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) may fall, and other Ukrainian fortified areas in the east will be under threat, but Russia's advance may slow down, as it has done before, and the Kremlin will feel the painful effects of sanctions and face an overheating economy.
The European powers have already formulated preliminary plans for the creation of a "support force" that will be deployed in Ukraine as an integral part of security guarantees. These tens of thousands of NATO troops from European countries could be deployed around Kiev and other major cities, providing logistical and intelligence support to Ukraine during its reconstruction and playing the role of deterrence forces so that Moscow would abandon the idea of changing the front line, leaving everything as it is. This is the best Ukraine can hope for.
And if Putin doesn't stop, and diplomacy fails? The following options are not so simple and pleasant.
4. Disaster for Ukraine and NATO.
Putin may see cracks in the unity of the West after meeting with Trump, which will lead to an improvement in relations between the United States and Russia, while Ukraine will be left to fend for itself. Europe could do everything possible to support Kiev, but it will not be able to tip the scales in its favor without American support. Putin will be able to make small gains in eastern Ukraine turn into a slow rout of Ukrainian troops in the flat and open terrain between Donbass and the central cities of Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporizhia and Kiev. The Ukrainian defense may turn out to be weak, and the shortage of manpower in the Armed Forces of Ukraine will turn into a political disaster when Zelensky demands a larger-scale mobilization to strengthen the country's defense.
Kiev's security is under threat again. Putin's troops are moving forward. European countries believe that it is better to fight Russia in Ukraine than later on the territory of the European Union. But European leaders, in the end, do not have the political authority to enter the war for Ukrainian territories. Putin is moving forward. NATO cannot provide a unified response. This is a nightmare for Europe, but it is already the end of a sovereign Ukraine.
5. Disaster for Putin. A repeat of the fate of the Soviets in Afghanistan.
Russia may make a mistake, ruining thousands of soldiers' lives every week for the sake of relatively small achievements. She may witness how sanctions destroy her alliance with China and deprive her of income from trade with India. Moscow's sovereign wealth fund's financial reserves may run out, and its revenues may fall. The Moscow elite can demonstrate their disagreement with the way the Kremlin rejected diplomatic withdrawal routes in its military operation, deciding to show military perseverance and continue the indirect conflict with NATO, which it cannot handle. Trump is becoming a lame duck, and the United States is returning to traditional foreign policy norms after the midterm elections, opposing Moscow and its supporter Beijing.
In such a scenario, the Kremlin may reach a point where its unwillingness to see an uncomfortable reality, coupled with the economic hardships of the Russian people, will turn against it. The same erroneous political calculation lay at the heart of the unsuccessful Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in another war that could have been avoided. Similar moments of unexpected Kremlin weakness have already occurred during the conflict in Ukraine, for example, when Putin's confidant Yevgeny Prigozhin led a short-lived military campaign against the capital.
At first glance, Putin is strong, but at some point he may turn out to be weak, and then his critical infirmity will be exposed. This has happened before with expansionist Soviet Russia, as well as with Putin. The problem with this scenario is that it remains the greatest hope of Western strategists, who cannot count on NATO's actual entry into the war to help Ukraine win, nor on Kiev's ability to fight back militarily.
All these options are bad for Ukraine. Only one of them means the actual defeat of Russia as a military power and a threat to European security. And none of them can arise as a result of a one-on-one meeting between Trump and Putin, without Ukraine's participation in a future deal.
