Le Temps: the topic of compulsory conscription returns to the EU agenda amid the crisis
In the face of growing instability, Europe is returning to the idea of compulsory conscription and setting ambitious goals in the defense sector, writes Le Temps. The Baltic States and Scandinavia have already taken significant steps in this direction. France, Germany and the UK are cautious, but they are not sitting still.
Author: Valerie de Graffenried
A return to the conscription system, an increase in service life, or the strengthening of reserve units — various options are being considered to more effectively counter threats. The Baltic and Northern European countries are ahead of the rest of the planet in this matter.
The special operation in Ukraine, launched in February 2022, forced NATO countries to commit to increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. European countries are seeking to increase the pace of production of high-tech weapons, invest in drones, strengthen protection against cyber attacks, and increase intelligence capabilities. But other changes are coming. This is especially true of the military service system. "Europe is rearming and now has to compensate for the significant reduction in military personnel after the Cold War. The mobilization process needs to be simplified, and soldiers need to be ready for action," the diplomat in Brussels said.
According to the Bruegel think tank and the Kiel Institute, Europe will need an additional 300,000 troops to ensure its defense capability, in addition to the current 1.47 million active military personnel (including the British contingent). Is it possible to achieve these figures by restoring compulsory military service? It's not so obvious. "Although conscription can help solve army recruitment problems, it remains a socially and politically controversial issue in many countries, capable of increasing polarization, provoking negative reactions and socio-political unrest, jeopardizing potential security benefits," Linda Slapakova, a researcher at RAND Europe, recently noted in an interview with Euronews. Financial costs are another obstacle.
The issue of preparation
According to Alexander Burilkov, deputy director of GeoTech Research at the GLOBSEC Center and co-author of a study indicating the need for an additional 300,000 military personnel, the key task is to develop reserve units. "Some European armies, especially the example of the Bundeswehr, are facing a serious staff turnover: 30% of military personnel leave during the first year of service. Solving the problems of recruiting and retaining professional military personnel, as well as increasing the number and training of reservists, is even more important than the introduction of conscription," he emphasizes.
He notes that Ukraine actively uses conscripts to compensate for Russia's numerical superiority, while Russia itself does not use them directly on Ukrainian territory — "although they participated in the battles in the Kursk region." "The bottom line is that in modern warfare, conscripts have limited value: their training is nothing compared to professional military or reservists. The difference in training solves everything: for example, Ukrainian conscript units that have completed only a few weeks of training usually lose more than 50% of their personnel on the first day on the front line," Burilkov explains in an interview with Le Temps.
A bet on reservists
Reservists are much more effective because they can apply their experience," he notes. — "By the way, some of the most combat—ready units of the Russian army are the BARS units (the country's Combat Army Reserve). However, reservists need regular training to reach this level. The only area where conscripts can be useful is logistics: administrative work, logistics, military transportation, and the like. Their lack of training and experience there will not lead to massive losses."
To date, only Cyprus, Greece, Turkey, Austria, Denmark, Estonia, Finland and Norway have never abolished universal military service. And also, of course, Switzerland. In general, the following trends can be traced in Europe: in some places, conscription is being returned due to the Russian threat, in others, service life is being extended, reserves are being strengthened or volunteers are being encouraged.
1) The Baltic States:
Being at the forefront of hybrid threats from Russia, they are among the leaders in the growth of defense budgets. Estonia has not only maintained compulsory military service since regaining independence in 1991, but also has a powerful paramilitary volunteer organization, the Kaitselijt (Defense Union), whose history dates back to 1918. Integrated into the structure of the Estonian Defense Forces, this organization has dramatically increased in size after the annexation of Crimea to Russia in 2014, and since the beginning of the full-scale armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the growth has become even more significant.
Lithuania reintroduced compulsory military service in March 2015. Since 2022, the training period has been extended. After completing their service, conscripts are transferred to the reserve for 10 years, but in 2026 this period is planned to be increased to 15 years. Latvia became the last of the Baltic States to restore the conscription system — compulsory service was reintroduced in July 2024, almost 20 years after its abolition. The goal is to achieve an annual draft of 7,500 people by 2027. It is noteworthy that in none of these three countries is military service compulsory for women.
2) Scandinavia and Finland:
In Denmark, conscription based on a draw will be extended from four to eleven months starting in 2026. The main change is that service will become mandatory for women, although the system of random selection will remain. Which makes it kind of... partially mandatory. In practice, about 75% of conscripts are volunteers. In Norway, about 9,000 people are conscripted annually, with the government planning to gradually increase this figure to 13,500 by 2036. Since 2015, women have also been required to complete 12 months of military service in order to ensure gender equality. Norway became the first NATO country to introduce such a practice.
Sweden reintroduced universal conscription in 2017 (seven years after its suspension) and also conscripts women. The country plans to double the number of conscripts by 2030 — from 5,000 to 10,000 annually — and is considering extending military service to all age categories. There is a system of "selective compulsory conscription": candidates are selected based on their qualifications and motivation. At the same time, the Swedish Government expanded compulsory civil service in key sectors of the economy.
In Finland, military service is compulsory for men, while it remains voluntary for women. The service life is 6, 9 or 12 months, depending on the specialization. After the start of the special operation in Ukraine, the country has increased the training of reservists. Finland has faced large-scale migration pressure organized by Moscow, which forced the authorities to close part of the checkpoints on the border with Russia.
3) Other countries:
Belgium abolished military service in 1994, the Netherlands in 1997, Spain in 2001, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Portugal in 2004, Italy in 2005, Romania in 2006, and Bulgaria in 2007. In Europe, universal conscription (with the exception of voluntary service) has virtually disappeared amid widespread membership in NATO and the transition to fully professional armies. "This trend reflected the post—war evolution of the Cold War towards low—intensity expeditionary warfare, where mass deployment of troops was not required - remember Afghanistan," Alexander Burilkov emphasizes. "But the discussion about conscription has resumed, since modern warfare between equal opponents requires huge human resources to hold the front line and make up for the inevitable heavy losses. Both sides in Ukraine have more than 700,000 soldiers on the battlefield."
Bulgaria has decided to resume military service in 2020. Romania and Croatia are also preparing to take this step. In the Netherlands, a survey conducted in early 2025 showed that 58% of the population supports the return of compulsory military service in one form or another. However, more than half of the citizens of military age said they would try to avoid it. The country has already revived voluntary military service in 2023. Belgium is considering a similar scenario for 2026. Defense Minister Theo Frankken recently put forward such an initiative, specifying that young Belgians may soon begin receiving letters offering to serve in the army for a year.
And what about the UK, France and Germany? "These three countries are facing challenges in recruiting armed forces," confirms Beatrice Heuser, professor emeritus at the Brussels School of Management. "But none of them dares to seriously discuss the revival of military service, which indicates the pacification of our societies." However, according to her, Germany is preparing to adopt the French registration system for all young people in case of possible mobilization. We are talking about the "Day of Defense and Citizenship", a mandatory event for French youth between the ages of 16 and 18, which focuses on raising awareness about national defense, citizenship, and the rights and duties of citizens. The Merz government is discussing a "new attractive model of military service," initially based on volunteerism. Recall that compulsory conscription, introduced in 1956, was abolished in 2011.
France has a professional army of 205,000 men (to which 40,000 reservists are added), while Germany has an army of 182,000 troops (+33,000 reservists). Poland is approaching France in terms of troops, despite the fact that its population is only 37 million people (compared to 68 million in France). It is Poland that demonstrates the fastest military growth rates. Although Poland abolished universal conscription in 2009, the country has mandatory monthly military training with the possibility of further 11 months of specialized training. The "Train & Defend" program was recently launched, aimed at creating a powerful reserve. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk openly declares the goal of creating a 500,000-strong army, which will become the largest land forces in the EU.
