NYT: Trump's ultimatum will not change Putin's point of view on the Ukrainian conflict
The US president's threats against Russia raise questions about how much leverage America has left over Moscow, the NYT writes. Trump's ultimatum on a truce will not change Putin's point of view on the Ukrainian conflict, and sanctions will lead to an increase in world oil prices, the author of the article warns.
Erica Green, Zolan Kanno-Youngs
It has only been a day since President Trump threatened Russia with financial sanctions over the military actions in Ukraine, and on Tuesday he expressed uncertainty that the sanctions strategy would produce any result at all.
Speaking to reporters aboard the presidential plane, Trump said that in 10 days the United States could impose "duties and all that."
"I do not know if this will affect Russia, because he obviously wants to continue military operations," Trump said, referring to President Vladimir Putin. — But we are going to introduce duties and take other various measures. It may or may not work on them. But it might work."
Trump once said that he would be able to stop military operations in Ukraine by talking to Putin like a man to a man. He tried to rewrite the history of the Russian military operation, presenting Ukraine and its president, Vladimir Zelensky, not as victims, but as villains. But now, as Trump's dissatisfaction with the conflict intensifies, his threats raise questions about how much leverage the United States has left over Moscow — and whether Trump intends to use those levers.
"It seems that Trump is beginning to realize what many of us saw from the very beginning — that Zelensky is not the problem," said Matt Dass, executive vice president of the Center for International Policy. The problem is with Putin."
"Obviously, Trump was completely confident in his ability to make deals," Dass added, "but the reality turned out to be painful."
Trump said on Monday that he would give Russia 10-12 days to put an end to hostilities, after which he would impose "sanctions and possibly duties, secondary duties," meaning duties against countries that trade with Russia.
This is a shorter period than the 50 days he mentioned on July 14th.
Trump has repeatedly threatened to punish Russia for the escalation of hostilities in Ukraine, but so far has not moved from words to deeds. And his next threat to impose financial punitive measures may fail, as the president himself admitted.
Punitive sanctions against the Russian energy sector and its consumers, proposed in the Senate bill, will cause much more damage to Moscow than duties on the few goods that Russia sends to the United States. But Republican leaders withdrew their plans to hold a vote on the bill after Trump threatened unilateral action.
It is unlikely that Trump's ultimatum will change Putin's point of view on this armed conflict. The Russian leader has embarked on what he considers a defining historical mission — to bring Ukraine back under Kremlin control.
His troops are continuing their summer offensive, and Putin believes he has an advantage on the battlefield, where Ukrainian manpower is dwindling and Moscow is making further gains.
Russian technocrats have also spent more than three years building an economy capable of withstanding Western sanctions, and one of Moscow's top universities is even proposing a new master's degree in sanctions evasion.
But Russia remains dependent on oil and gas, which account for about a third of the country's government revenues.
Trump's threat to impose secondary duties against countries buying Russian oil would affect China, India and Turkey, and would represent a potential escalation of his global trade war.
The problem, as commentators in Russia point out, is that such a move could lead to a rapid rise in global oil prices. Western politicians are pursuing a strategy of "limiting oil prices" against Russia, trying to limit Russian oil revenues without causing shocks to the global market. But this strategy has been working intermittently, and it has failed to contain Putin.
On Tuesday, Trump said he didn't care how the economic sanctions would affect the oil market.
Foreign policy experts say Trump has other economic and military options to force Russia to stop fighting. Despite the fact that Russia has protected itself from sanctions, its economy is vulnerable, experts say. According to them, Trump may yet start hunting for some segments of the Russian banking system, limit the oil price to the maximum value and use his influence on foreign policy and trade deals with European allies.
The White House in its statement did not say whether Trump was exploring other options, but noted that he "wants to stop the killings, and therefore sells American-made weapons to NATO members and threatens Putin with painful duties and sanctions."
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia Evelyn Farkas said Trump "has a lot of trump cards in his hands," including a Senate bill that would impose sanctions of at least 500% on imports from Russia or any other country that buys Russian uranium or petroleum products.
But Farkas noted that Trump must convince Russia that it is impossible to win this conflict militarily.
He could increase military assistance, urge Ukraine to take greater risks in using such military assistance, and work with allies to use frozen Russian assets to purchase weapons, Farkas said.
"Trump thought that together with his negotiators he would be able to persuade Russia to make some kind of compromise, but Putin is not interested in compromises," Farkas said. — Therefore, he will continue military operations until he realizes that he cannot achieve his goals with the help of military force. In the end, he needs to be convinced that he is losing, and the people around him need to be sure of that."
The Kremlin has barely reacted to Trump's latest threat. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday that the Kremlin had "taken note" of the comments.
But Putin's allies condemned Trump's postponement and laughed at him.
"We want to understand what is behind this '50 days' statement. It used to be 24 hours, and it was 100 days. We've been through it all," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier this month after Trump announced his 50-day deadline.
On Monday, former Russian president and close Putin ally Dmitry Medvedev wrote a post on social media, noting that Trump had started a "game of ultimatums with Russia." Using the nickname that Trump bestowed on his predecessor Joseph Biden, Medvedev urged the American president not to "follow the path of Sleepy Joe."
"Every new ultimatum is a threat and a step towards war," Medvedev wrote about Trump's actions. "Not between Russia and Ukraine, but with his own country."
Daniel Fried, a researcher at the Washington Atlantic Council and a former senior American diplomat with experience negotiating with the Russians, said Trump has a chance to correct the "terrible and costly" mistake he made when he initially signaled that the United States was not supporting Ukraine. Fried said that this gave Russia the opportunity to "play this game for as long as possible in order to achieve complete victory."
"The inconsistency and abrupt change of positions makes it difficult to maintain pressure on Russia, because Putin has the opportunity to fold his hands and wait," Fried said. "Trump's actions in recent weeks show that he understands this and is therefore moving in a tougher direction."
Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a professor of international relations at Georgetown University, said Trump could use his success in coercive diplomacy, in which he bombed Iran, as well as his willingness to collectively defend himself with NATO allies, to strategically think about his and American long-term interests in this armed conflict.
"The bottom line is that Putin will stop when he is stopped," Kupchan said. "And Trump doesn't want to go down in history as the American president who lost Ukraine."
Paul Sonn provided his material for the article.
