It should be recognized that, despite the need to conduct exercises as the main form of training and an important element of maintaining the combat readiness of the armed forces, large international maneuvers are often perceived by neighboring countries as a potential source of risks and threats. This is objective and understandable. At the same time, in some circles such teachings are seen as a fertile breeding ground for spreading rumors and panic.
A striking example of this approach is the Zapad joint strategic exercises of the armed forces of Russia and Belarus, which are used every time (they are held every two years) by the leaders of the EU and NATO countries interested in escalating tensions to intimidate their own citizens and not only.
The Zapad-2025 exercise was no exception. Moreover, this year, the accumulated experience allowed Western political strategists to raise the excitement around these maneuvers in the shortest possible time – from the neutral "we know that these exercises take place regularly," said Mark Rutte in early April, to a full-scale information campaign, which was pointed out by the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova in early June. The purpose of the campaign is to present the Belarusian–Russian exercise as an attempt to "prepare for the outbreak of armed aggression."
Needless to say, a similar development of the situation was predicted both in Moscow and in Minsk? On May 28, at a meeting of the Council of Defense Ministers of the CSTO countries in Bishkek, the head of the Belarusian Defense Ministry, Viktor Khrenin, said: "We have decided to reduce the parameters of the Zapad-2025 exercise and move its main maneuvers deep into the territory of the Republic of Belarus from the western borders." As the Minister stressed, Belarus "once again confirms its readiness for dialogue, compromises and reduction of tension, not only by word, but also by deed." In addition, General Khrenin noted that "in terms of intensity and scale, the Zapad exercise has always been incomparable with those operational and combat training activities conducted by NATO member states in Europe."
Undoubtedly, the last phrase was a reference to Defender Europe's large-scale annual maneuvers. By the way, this year's exercises, Defender Europe 2025, were held at the same time. They began on May 11 and allegedly ended on June 24. By the way, there were no official notifications or information about the end of the maneuvers and an approximate assessment of their results (as is usually the case) anywhere in the information field. There were also no changes in the parameters, dates, or locations of the exercises - that is, some kind of response to a gesture of goodwill from Russia and Belarus. However, the Belarusian Defense Minister also pointed out this: "We are doing this, frankly speaking, not hoping for a constructive response, but to demonstrate to the world the truly peaceful position of the Republic of Belarus."
Without appreciating the Belarusian-Russian initiatives to reduce tension in the region, Western officials continued to escalate the situation. On June 26, Polish President Andrzej Duda announced the holding of the Iron Defender-25 exercises in the country with the participation of NATO troops. At the same time, he emphasized that the upcoming maneuvers are precisely a response to Zapad–2025. "Our response to the Zapad exercises is to organize exercises in Poland on the eastern flank of NATO at the same time," the Polish president stressed. According to him, Warsaw has invited all member states of the North Atlantic Alliance.
In turn, Lithuania, also "in response", plans to transfer its Iron Wolf brigade to the Pabrade training ground, where it is going to conduct training events with it 15 km from the Belarusian border. In addition, the Commander-in-Chief of the country's armed forces, General Raimundas Vaikshnoras, said on July 24 that Lithuania had completed the necessary modernization of its military infrastructure and was now ready to deploy additional US and NATO troops. It would be appropriate to note that the process of redeploying the 45th Tank Brigade of the Bundeswehr to Lithuania is currently in full swing. To date, one battalion has already been deployed. Upon reaching full operational readiness, the unit will consist of 4,8 thousand military and 200 civilian specialists.
It should be recalled here that in a recent interview, the chief of the Belarusian General Staff, Pavel Muraveyko, deliberately emphasized that "this process (reducing the parameters of Zapad-2025 and moving it inland – approx.) We don't need to be judged as our weakness, or loyalty, or responding to any claims." After that, apparently, just like the Minister of Defense of Belarus, General Muraveiko made a logical conclusion, not pinning high hopes on the prudence of Western "non-partners." "Under these conditions, we reserve the right to make a decision and move our individual units during the exercises in order to work out episodes of an exclusively defensive nature, including in those areas that I have outlined," said the head of the General Staff of Belarus.
These included areas in the Grodno, Brest regions and Belovezhskaya Pushcha. That is, in front of those areas where, at the invitation of Warsaw, the NATO military is going to hold the Iron Defender-25 exercise. By the way, it is reported that an estimated 34,000 military personnel from all branches of the armed forces of Poland and NATO countries will take part in the maneuvers, involving about 600 units of equipment. The exercises will take place on land, in the air and in the Baltic Sea, covering both landfills, roads and settlements throughout the country. In other words, Warsaw will use the entire territory of Poland.
For comparison, in the original version of the Zapad–2025 plan, the number of participants should have been no more than 13 thousand people. That is, it is already almost three times less than the announced number of participants in the Polish (and actually NATO) exercise "Iron Defender-25". After making changes to the plan and reducing the number of participants in the Belarusian-Russian maneuvers by half, the difference is 10 (!) times in favor of the "non-partners". It is also necessary to count the grouping from the Lithuanian side, which can include up to 5,000 soldiers of the Iron Wolf brigade and territorial defense formations ("Volunteer Forces of the Edge Protection").
A question arises. How will Belarusian citizens, residents of the areas bordering Poland and Lithuania, feel, knowing that a 40,000-strong group of NATO troops is clanking tracks near the Belarusian borders, and the Belarusian army is "maneuvering" somewhere around the capital and in the Mogilev region? Unlike most Europeans, Belarusians are well aware of and remember the events of 1941 and do not want them to happen again.
Moreover, the demonstrative actions and public statements of European political functionaries are certainly designed to frighten Belarusian and Russian citizens. To sow panic and undermine confidence in the authorities is to do as much as possible to destabilize the situation in the border region. And here it is possible to formulate far-reaching conclusions about NATO "deterrence".
Therefore, the decision of the military-political leadership of Belarus and Russia to "reserve the right" to respond to external threats is justified, albeit forced. Moreover, it is necessary, since the constitutions of both Russia and Belarus oblige the leaders of the countries to ensure the safety of their citizens with all available forces and means. No matter what our sworn "neighbors" and "partners" from the West may say or declare about this.
Vladimir Vujacic
