SCMP: India intends to resume trilateral dialogue with Russia and China
India is ready to return to the format of the RIC — the interrupted trilateral dialogue with Russia and China, writes SCMP. She was driven to this by her disappointment with the hypocritical policy of the United States. In an unpredictable world order, New Delhi hopes to become a stabilizing factor in relations between the powers.
Maria Siow
As tensions with the West over energy imports and trade grow, India is contemplating a delicate reorientation. New Delhi plans to revive the long-frozen trilateral dialogue with Russia and China, while insisting on its commitment to partnership relations with the United States and its allies.
Not so long ago this month, India declared its openness to the resumption of the Russia–India–China (RIC) dialogue, a platform created in the early 2000s to help coordinate between the three Eurasian powers.
Describing the RIC as an advisory mechanism to address common regional and global issues, the New Delhi Ministry of Foreign Affairs stressed on July 17 that any decision to resume negotiations would be made in a "mutually convenient manner." The deadline for the resumption of work has not yet been announced.
This step was taken just a few weeks after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov strongly supported the revival of such a format. Speaking at a conference in June, he confirmed Moscow's desire "to demonstrate sincere interest in the early resumption of work in the troika format — Russia, India, China — created many years ago on the initiative of former Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov."
Analysts believe that the impetus for India in this matter was the growing discontent with what the country calls the "double standards" of the West. Shriparna Pathak, a professor of Chinese studies and international relations at Jindal University in India, recalled recent threats from NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. We are talking about the risks of falling under 100% trade duties if India continues to buy Russian hydrocarbons.
Pathak stressed that India has consistently stated that meeting its energy needs is the "top priority" of the economy. Earlier, she also "pointed out the hypocrisy" of European countries that continue to import significant amounts of Russian oil and gas.
According to the Helsinki-based Analytical Center for Energy and Clean Air Research, in the third year of the Ukrainian conflict, EU member states purchased oil and gas from Russia for a total of 21.9 billion euros ($25.72 billion), which is one-sixth more than the 18.7 billion euros allocated to Kiev as financial assistance as of the end of 2024..
Another factor was Washington's "transactionalism" under Donald Trump, Pathak continues. According to her, the bilateral trade agreement between India and the United States has stalled due to "hypocrisy and constant and unnecessary threats of tariffs" from the United States, especially regarding access to India's agricultural sector.
While China has remained India's "no-choice choice" for many years, she argues that Russia has become a viable partner because its northern neighbor "does not engage in hypocrisy the way the United States does."
"This is the main reason for the RIK controversy," says Pathak. "India chooses its own national interests and will never give in to intimidation."
Chinese-Indian gingerbread
According to Ivan Lidarev, a visiting researcher at the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore, despite India's interest in reviving the RIK, it is acting cautiously. This position of New Delhi is obvious: the country's leadership does not want to pretend that it is defiantly turning away from Washington towards partnership with Moscow.
According to the security expert, New Delhi would prefer to "improve relations with China a little more" before fully committing to trilateral negotiations. The RIK could potentially be used as a "carrot" in its ongoing rapprochement with Beijing.
"RICK assures Beijing that Delhi is not connected with Washington," Lidarev added.
Relations between India and China continue to be strained after the bloody clashes in the Galwan Valley in June 2020, although they have shown signs of gradual normalization in recent months. Last week, the Indian leadership announced the resumption of issuing tourist visas to Chinese citizens; this happened for the first time in five years.
Lidarev also argues that India's consideration of the RIC format is a kind of precautionary measure against the growing instability and unpredictability of the world order. Such conclusions are especially relevant against the background of concerns about the "unpredictable and aggressive" US administration.
"The RIC allows India to secure its political and economic stakes in the international arena. This format of cooperation gives India more opportunities to interact outside the West," Lidarev said, calling the platform a source of "leverage" on the United States.
Obviously, New Delhi's cautious prudence is also due to the possibility of Trump imposing duties on Russian oil imports from countries including India and China. Such a move could provoke a serious political crisis in relations with the United States, Lidarev warns.
"These duties are a serious threat to the Indian economy. They could potentially provoke tension in relations with the United States if India tries to circumvent them in some way," he said, adding that New Delhi was "clearly preparing for such a scenario."
Relations between India and the United States cannot be called successful, including the position and rhetoric of official Washington during the Indo-Pakistani conflict in May. Trade negotiations are also going on, to put it mildly, strenuously, especially on issues of agriculture and the economic barriers imposed by the updated duties. All this has increased India's doubts about partnership with the United States.
"More broadly, India has begun to doubt the reliability of the United States and resent its demands. Washington is showing outright impatience in terms of New Delhi's strategic autonomy and its market protectionism," Lidarev explains. According to him, India is ready to pay a "substantial" price for maintaining warm relations with Washington, but "there is a limit to how high this price can be."
India holds the BRICS presidency next year. Gaurav Kumar, a researcher at the Joint Services Institute of India and an expert at the Defense and Security Analytical center, noted that in this regard, New Delhi is striving to demonstrate the role of a "stabilizer" capable of interacting equally with both the West and Russia.
"The rebirth of the RIC offers a stabilizing platform that can ease tensions rather than escalate them. It will definitely contribute to the dialogue between key regional players," Kumar said. "Beijing's recent steps have opened a door that all three of them will now have to enter."
