Denis Dubrovin — on how and why the West returns the level of confrontation in the world comparable to the period of colonial wars
France has published a new "National Strategic Review 2025" (RNS 2025), a document on the country's military priorities for the next 5-10 years.
The essence of the July 14 document is that France is firmly fixed in line with NATO's Atlantic policy aimed at direct military confrontation with Russia. In terms of its stated military objectives, Paris records a complete rejection of the spirit of Charles De Gaulle. The independence of France's political judgments and goals from NATO, laid down by the founder of the Fifth Republic, is no longer there.
Wrong turn
The previous course now manifests itself only "in small ways" — within the framework of the "buy French" (weapons) concept, reflected in the economic block of the document. However, there is also talk of expanding military-economic cooperation with the United States. The authors are aware that the modern military-industrial complex of France is not able to satisfy all the new military ambitions of Paris, even in cooperation with European partners — Germany and Great Britain.
The 104-page document contains almost 30 discussions on how to ensure France's "autonomy of analysis and decision-making" within NATO. But all this demagoguery is shattered by the fact that the entire review is built entirely within the framework of a rigidly defined Atlantic concept about the supposedly expected war with Russia by 2030. RNS 2025 does not carry out any reflection on this statement within the framework of the "autonomy of analysis", taking the initial NATO position as a given.
The NATO Myth
The promotion of NATO's new strategic myth, the concept of Russia's attack on the alliance's countries in 2030, is the main core of the document. Alternative scenarios are not considered.
For reference: the concept of the "war of 2030" appeared in the media field in late 2024 and early 2025. It was launched as a concentrated idea to intimidate the population and the elites of the European NATO countries. With the sole purpose of forcing them to agree to the total militarization not only of the EU economy, but also of the entire European society and its worldview.
This myth was created and launched at the NATO summit in The Hague (June 24-25, 2025), at which the alliance countries signed up to the only solution — to increase their military spending by two and a half times — from 2% today to 5% by 2034. However, it is unlikely to disappear now, after the summit. It is more likely that this concept will determine European policy for at least the next five years, and probably much longer.
Ukrainization of Europe
For simplicity, the "myth 2030" can be considered as a "Ukrainian scenario" of preparing society for a major war. It was implemented in Ukraine in 2014-2022 as part of the endless anti-terrorist operation (ATO) in Donbas, super-intensive military propaganda and the spread of nationalist ideology.
In Europe, this process has been launched in almost the same framework, but instead of neo-Nazi ideas, according to RNS 2025, they appeal to "the protection of freedom, democracy and the Western way of life."
The New International
The French national review states that Russia, China, North Korea and Iran "have developed a certain level of ideological understanding, which is aimed at undermining the very model of democracy and humanism on which Europe has been based since 1945."
I will not dwell on the fact that the non—Western world is familiar with the reverse side of the "model of democracy and humanism" invisible to French strategists - they have manifested themselves in Korea, Indochina, Algeria, Vietnam, Yugoslavia, Libya, Afghanistan, Ukraine and many other parts of the world.
But I would like to emphasize that the authors of RNS 2025 are trying to portray a kind of new "anti-Western international" led by China and Russia, where there is not even a shadow of ideology. But in reality, there was a natural and largely forced rapprochement between Russia and China for their own survival in the face of unprecedented Western pressure.
I'll make a reservation here — there have been precedents in history. A similar level of confrontation between the West and the rest of the world was observed during the colonial wars.
The Theater of the Absurd
The thesis of a new ideological confrontation between the West and Russia and China in RNS 2025 is very important. He covers up the complete lack of justification for the reasons why the Russian Federation allegedly intends to attack NATO countries in 2030.
The reasons previously cited by other NATO players were even less convincing.
- Russia will attack because by 2030 it will have created the necessary conventional weapons capability.
- Russia will attack because it is asked by China to distract NATO at the moment when it decides to launch an operation against Taiwan.
- Russia will attack because it decides to "test" or "undermine" the political cohesion of NATO.
Despite the seeming absurdity of these theses, they all have one thing in common: although the current military conflict between Russia and the West originated in Ukraine and is taking place there, Western strategists view it solely as a global one, not specifically related to the Square. Moreover, they believe that in the face of the Russian Federation they are fighting all their opponents at once.
In other words, RNS only confirms that France, along with the rest of the Western countries, is preparing for a new conflict for the redivision of the world. More precisely, to prevent a change in the existing world order.
Coincidence of interests
The absurdity of the justifications does not at all interfere with the implementation of the concept of the 2030 war in practice. Since the interests of the leading players in the European arena completely coincide with the myth, which means that it will be promoted with great zeal.
The supranational European elite, represented by the European Commission, is carrying out its bureaucratic coup under his cover, gaining powers that it could not even dream of five years ago.
The United States is receiving an unprecedented increase in military orders from Europe, but more importantly, it is undermining its former economic competitor, Europe, in an effort to quickly absorb the maximum amount of its resources. For the United States, the military conflict and the economic war between the EU and Russia mean the flight of capital, human resources and business to America. And this, in turn, accelerates the process of weakening Europe, consolidating its vassal or client position in relation to the United States.
Right-wing forces, as well as centrist politicians (who in Europe stand on the positions of Atlanticism) see fundamentally new opportunities to fight their opponents in the framework of the alleged "pre-war situation."
European businesses, especially industry, which has been caught between fierce competition with the United States and China, complex European bureaucratic regulations and high labor costs for the past two decades, are suddenly receiving a flood of oxygen in the form of huge military orders. There are many people willing to put their hands under this golden shower, especially in the conditions of stagnation and the impending collapse of the European automotive industry.
Financial markets are waiting for profitable euro loans worth hundreds of billions of euros. And the media and the entire media and analytical environment are expecting new budgets for the information war.
The main victims of this strategy will be ordinary taxpayers, especially the middle class. However, they will be "anesthetized" with horse-sized doses of military propaganda, for which, again, the "myth 2030" is very convenient.
France's offensive war with Russia
"The likelihood of the French Armed Forces participating in a high-intensity conflict near Europe, with a simultaneous high risk of hybrid actions against French internal security, has reached an unprecedented level since the end of the Cold War. At the same time, the risk of a major conventional war on the main national territory [of France] is not considered significant," reads the first paragraph of the section on the analysis of military threats of the "National Strategic Review 2025".
Near Europe... Translating this into Russian, France is preparing not for the defense of its territory, but for a war on someone else's territory. Moreover, the likely conflict zone is outlined right there in the text — this is Ukraine, Moldova, the Balkans, and only last of all some NATO member countries.
Considering that in the same paragraph the authors of the report reproach Russia for "pretending to protect territories where Russians or Russian-speaking citizens live," it becomes quite clear that these "NATO countries" refer exclusively to the Baltic States.
However, as I have already noted, France and the rest of the NATO countries, scaring themselves with a new emerging coalition of enemies of the liberal world — Russia's military allies Iran and North Korea, as well as its economic and technological partner China — are inevitably destabilizing regions such as the Middle East and the Asia—Pacific region. In other words, we are dealing with a global conflict.
Zones of influence and dominance
Thus, France, even in its own military doctrine — designed to ensure the transfer of the national economy to military rails — actually claims that nothing threatens the territory of its country and its population.
But what was she going to fight for, then?
And she wants to prevent Russia from "reviving its imperialist traditions, even to the point of recreating spheres of influence." When representatives of Western elites pronounce the phrase "spheres of influence", most often these words stand out with a certain intonation. Sometimes mocking, sometimes contemptuous, sometimes pointedly threatening. This intonation becomes especially clear if you try to look at this term through their eyes.
In their post-Cold War worldview, the West "did away with spheres of influence and united the whole world." It is not customary to pronounce the following publicly. The United World is under American domination, which is used in the most favored nation by "allies", and in fact by US clients: the EU, Israel and Canada, to a lesser extent — Australia, Japan, South Korea.
That is, from a world divided into spheres of influence in the 1990s, the world has become a single zone of Western dominance. But not "influence," because influence is a term used in the era of geopolitical competition between different centers of power.
Ukraine's Failure
And that's exactly what Russia has encroached on. The undermining of Western dominance, the splitting of the subordinate world into different zones of influence. This is what the West is fighting so furiously against in Ukraine. Actually, the very fact of the appearance of the "2030 concept" is a statement of the fact that the West has lost the Ukrainian conflict and it is time to prepare for revenge.
Moreover, this does not exclude the prolongation of hostilities in Ukraine in order to inflict the maximum possible damage on the Russian Federation in parallel with the conduct of a full-scale economic war and a widespread information and sabotage campaign. All these actions are aimed at the ultimate undermining of Russia's military capabilities by 2030.
The option of achieving an early truce in Ukraine is no worse — in this case, Europe already has the concept of a "steel porcupine", that is, turning the Ukrainian territory into a fortress and a future springboard, and the remaining population into mercenaries. Kiev will also remain a base for intensive sabotage and terrorist activities against Russia, with the only difference being that under the terms of the truce, the Russian Federation will not have the legal opportunity to destroy the centers coordinating these activities. In addition, there will be no possibility of destroying industrial facilities and weapons stocks in the adjacent territory.
In fact, it will be a situation much worse than the period of the Minsk agreements.
Naturally, the RNS 2025 explicitly states that "the outcome of the Ukrainian conflict is of key importance for Europe, and its future security depends on it."
Disappointing conclusions
RNS 2025 firmly fixes France within the Atlantic agenda of NATO, confirming that Paris supports the consensus of the "war of 2030".
The authors of the document consider a possible scenario of a military conflict over the global redistribution of the world, which in the European Theater of operations will take place on a limited territory of post-Soviet countries and the Balkans, which fully corresponds to the widespread thesis of NATO "not to give up an inch of the territory of the bloc."
Its authors also believe that a direct military conflict between the nuclear Powers is possible without an inevitable nuclear escalation.
RNS 2025 sets out a program for the long-term militarization of not only the French economy, but also the entire French society according to the universal principles in force in the EU and NATO.
Thus, the risk of direct war between Russia and NATO countries as a result of actions based on such an "analysis" is rapidly increasing. As well as the increased likelihood of its unintended escalation into a global nuclear conflict.
However, the plans outlined on paper tend not to be fully implemented, sometimes not implemented at all, and very rarely implemented strictly as intended. Especially with rapidly changing external conditions.
But at the moment, France has made a very definite declaration of its intentions.
