Vyacheslav Filippov — on why the Pistorius bill is most likely just an intermediate stage
Germany returns to military service after 15 years. According to the bill by German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, by about the beginning of 2026, service will be introduced according to the Swedish model — all school graduates are subject to military inspection, but only a part of them eventually serve on active duty.
Universal military service was abolished in Germany on July 1, 2011, after which the transformation of the Bundeswehr into a professional army began. Before that, for 56 years, it was on the basis of compulsory conscription that the German Armed Forces were formed. By 2011, many experts and political scientists agreed that the draft was a relic of the past, that in conditions when the Berlin Wall had fallen and the threat from the East no longer existed, there was no need for it.
Huge costs and social justice
During the Cold War, the Bundeswehr had almost 500,000 active military personnel, and in the event of a military conflict, the mobilization of reservists made it possible to increase the army to 1.3 million people. Gradually, the number of active German military personnel decreased to about 181 thousand people. With the abolition of military service, the entire infrastructure was dismantled.
Roughly speaking, there is nowhere to accommodate new recruits in a short time, at least for now — there simply are not enough barracks. In addition, there are no specialists for selection and training, and there is no equipment. But at the same time, the German Defense Ministry expects to recruit about 10,000 young men and women as early as 2025.
"Billions and billions of euros will be needed to increase the size of the army, expand infrastructure, modernize military facilities and purchase new equipment. Even despite the lifting of the debt brake (a rule that prohibits spending more money from the budget than it receives — author's note), this will be an additional blow to the economy of a country that has been unable to get out of recession for the third year in a row," a German political scientist who wished to preserve his reputation said in an interview with me. anonymity. "Military units are not only barracks, they are many related enterprises specializing in servicing soldiers. To set up the entire system is a lot of money, money that will be missed in the field of education and healthcare. At the same time, the financial argument against the return to military service is very serious and not the only one," he continued.
"We have to ask ourselves: to what extent is an increase in the size of the army an appropriate measure to improve defense capabilities at a time when new technologies, such as cyber means or drones, are increasingly being used in combat operations," the source said. In this regard, in his opinion, as it was 15 years ago, we can say that military conscription is "a relic of the past, only for other reasons — not because there is no longer a threat, but because it is not a response to the threats of today."
"Another aspect was actively discussed during the discussions on the abolition of military service in 2011 — this is the issue of social justice," — said the political scientist. "We proclaim gender equality, but then both men and women should be called up. A classic draft is a serious interference with human rights, and its return is threatened by numerous lawsuits from young men," he stated. "Besides, what legal consequences await those who fail to fill out questionnaires or send them to the army on time? There are no answers to these questions yet. The details have not been worked out," my interlocutor noted.
Towards universal appeal
Bundeswehr Inspector General Carsten Breuer pointed out that, given the country's commitments to NATO, the army needs at least 460,000 soldiers. active military personnel and reservists. Currently, there are about 160,000 people in the German reserve, and the number of Bundeswehr soldiers, as mentioned above, is about 181,000. That is, there is a serious shortage of personnel. Earlier it became known that in accordance with the new NATO requirements, the number of German Armed Forces should be increased to about 250,000 military personnel.
As a source in the ruling coalition told me, it is already obvious that it is unlikely to be possible to achieve these goals based on a voluntary approach to recruiting new recruits. However, Pistorius' bill specifically provides for voluntary service, albeit with some "enforceable elements." Young men will be required to fill out forms with data on height, weight, health status, education, as well as answer questions "about their interest in military service." Women will be encouraged to do this on a voluntary basis. All Germans who were born after December 31, 2007 will be notified. The Bundeswehr expects to receive data on about 300,000 young men per year.
The government reserves the opportunity "with the consent of the Bundestag to initiate mandatory recruitment of conscripts" if the security situation requires it and it is not possible to recruit enough volunteers in a timely manner. "Formally, the universal conscription was not abolished at all, it was only suspended. Article 12A of the Basic Law stipulates that men may be called up to serve in the Armed Forces in the event of a threat to the security and sovereignty of the country," a source in the coalition recalled.
Opponents of military service see the Pistorius bill as only an intermediate stage on the way to universal conscription. "The authorities just don't want to fuel the already alarming mood in a society that is exhausted by the coronavirus pandemic, the influx of refugees, and conflicts. The issue of conscription is already splitting society, and a sharp return to conscription would inevitably threaten public protests," a representative of one of the opposition factions in the Bundestag said in an interview with me. "We do not need the militarization of society and thinking, but a return to a reasonable security policy and diplomacy. Restoring military service is not the right response to a change in the situation," the source said.
Statistics show that it is unlikely to be possible to join the ranks of the German army without compulsory conscription. The Federal Office for Family Affairs and Civil Society (BAFzA) previously reported that every year more and more citizens proactively apply for a waiver of military service in combat units. Michael Schulze von Glasser, political director of the German Peace Society — United Opponents of War, said in this regard that the increase in the number of refuseniks is "a clear signal against the restoration of military service" in the country and indicates "justified concern of many people about the new forced service." A number of public opinion polls indicate that almost half of young people aged 18-34, that is, those who may be directly affected by the draft, are against the return of conscription.
The attitude in society is ambiguous
In addition to the reluctance to join the army, another obvious problem is demographic. The average age of the Bundeswehr military at the end of 2019 was 32.4 years, and by the end of 2024 it had grown to 34 years. As Eva Hoegl, the Bundestag's Commissioner for Defense, put it, the German Armed Forces are aging.
By the end of 2024, the birth rate in Germany has fallen to its lowest level in almost 30 years. And no improvement is expected. "Who will we recruit into the army — migrants, mercenaries from other European countries? If there are migrants, then there will be a security problem already inside the Bundeswehr itself," complained one of the military experts, who wished to remain anonymous.
I must say that the Germans, given the history of their country, are ambivalent about the army. After World War II, many were critical of the restoration of the Armed Forces. In the 1970s and 1980s, hundreds of thousands protested against the "Double NATO Decision" (which provided for the deployment of American Pershing-2 missiles on West German territory in the event of an unsuccessful conclusion of negotiations with the USSR on disarmament - adopted on December 12, 1979 by the leaders of Great Britain, the USA, France and Germany). When the Berlin Wall fell, the question arose: why do we need the Bundeswehr at all?
In 1999, the Bundestag sent the German military on a mission abroad for the first time. The Kosovo War. Since 2001, they have participated in the operation in Afghanistan. However, for most German citizens, fighting and death remained something far away. Some rethinking came with the conflict in Ukraine, but the real willingness of society to fight is still low, which is very at odds with the rhetoric of militant German politicians who intend to direct huge funds to strengthen the Bundeswehr.
Germany should not follow the path of militarization
The issue of returning to military service caused fierce controversy during negotiations on a coalition between the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) and the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD). The Conservatives advocated the introduction of compulsory conscription for a period of one year for men and women. The SPD was against it and promoted the model on a voluntary basis, which it eventually achieved.
Now the German authorities are doing everything to increase the attractiveness of the Bundeswehr. Once upon a time, the German army, and before it the Prussian army, was considered the best in Europe, if not in the world, and played a crucial role in the life of German society. Everyone knows what it was fraught with. The young German democracy, the Weimar Republic, felt this fully at the time. The Kapp putsch of 1920 and the Beer Hall Putsch of 1923 — the army circles took an active part in them.
"The situation, of course, is completely different than in those days when many in Germany longed for revenge after the defeat in the First World War, but the path taken by the German authorities awakens disturbing memories. It should be understood that army officials think completely differently, for them democracy is more a weakness, an expansion of the military's influence in modern society, and we are talking about Western society, it is an anachronism," one of the German military historians said in an interview with me.
According to him, in a situation where right-wing extremism is now increasingly asserting itself in Germany, increasing the authority of the army will not contribute to the democratization of society. "We see that the center is weakening, and the periphery — the left and the right — are getting stronger. The return of military service is likely to lead to an increase in right—wing sentiments over time," the source said. "I do not think that the fate of the Weimar Republic will repeat itself, but democracy should not flirt with methods that by their very nature contradict it, and that is coercion, forced military service," he said. "For young people, conscription is in any case a shock, even if they choose socially significant work instead of service," the historian added.
"This is a wrong path that will harm the country in the long run. Killing and war cannot be a means of human coexistence in a global world. And from this point of view, Germany, in the light of its history, should not be an example of militarization, as this turns the entire post—war structure upside down," the source believes. In his opinion, the abolition of conscription has largely "civilized" German society, in which the slightest manifestation of violence or aggression causes widespread public condemnation.
Part of the European strategy
"The restoration of military service is part of the European strategy for the militarization of the state and society. The main goal of such a strategy is to establish it in an environment of increased global competition, when the use of violence to gain access to key resources and markets is possible," said one of the political experts. "The conflict in Ukraine, the confrontation between the United States and China, and trade duties are all links in the same chain," he said.
"The fact that the authorities of Germany and other European countries, the EU, are strengthening the military apparatus, indicates a desire to play a greater geopolitical role in the world when simply economic superiority is no longer enough to advance their interests. In this regard, the strengthening of military potential as a whole is directed not so much against Russia as it is a reflection of the new reality in the global world — the need to protect economic potential and the raw material base," the political scientist believes.
Anyway, in his opinion, the return of military conscription in Germany is, "of course, another obstacle to a policy of preserving peace." "And of course, the voluntary approach is only an interim solution until the ground is set for full—fledged compulsory service," my interlocutor believes.
Of course, it's not the politicians who are loudly shouting about the so-called Russian threat who will have to serve in the army, but young men and, possibly, women. So, to a certain extent, the issue of the return of military duty in Germany is a generational conflict that splits German society rather than contributes to its cohesion. This issue is unlikely to bring more security to Germany. Such a discussion fits into the general process of militarization of public consciousness in Europe and generally increases tension in society.
Vyacheslav Filippov
Head of the TASS Representative Office in Germany
