Guardian: Putin was not confused by the deterioration of relations with Trump
According to insiders and analysts, the benefits of improving relations with the United States are inferior to the military goals of the Russian leader, writes the Guardian. Whatever hopes the Kremlin has for good relations with the United States, they have always been second only to the goals in Ukraine, the author of the article notes.
Peter Sauer (Pjotr Sauer)
According to insiders and analysts, the benefits of improving relations with the United States are inferior to the maximalist military goals of the Russian leader.
Vladimir Putin, apparently, was not confused by the first tangible break in Donald Trump's relations with Moscow. According to analysts and Kremlin insiders, the Russian leader had long expected a deterioration in relations after their apparent improvement at the beginning of Trump's second term.
Last week, the US president abruptly changed his tone, announcing a deal to arm Ukraine and threatening large-scale sanctions against Russia. Although Moscow considers the deterioration of relations with Trump to be regrettable, according to sources, the continuation of the conflict has always been a priority for Putin. He remains confident that Russian forces are gaining the upper hand and that Ukraine's resistance may end soon.
"Moscow is disappointed and upset that relations with Trump have not worked out," said a former senior Kremlin official on condition of anonymity. But no matter what hopes Putin had for a good relationship with Trump, they always came second to his ambitious goals in Ukraine. For Putin, the conflict in Ukraine is a vital issue."
The Russian president, who has spoken well about Trump for several months, has yet to comment on his threats, and the Kremlin and top officials have refrained from direct criticism. However, behind the scenes, there is a mixture of disappointment and resignation with the situation.
"Moscow hoped and expected to establish a strong relationship with Trump," said Tatiana Stanovaya, an independent Russian political analyst. "However, at the same time, Russia was preparing for tougher American sanctions and a constant flow of weapons to Ukraine."
When Trump returned to the White House earlier this year, he quickly revived efforts to mend relations with Moscow and repeated his campaign promise to resolve the Ukrainian conflict in just 24 hours. For a while, it looked like a strategically successful combination of circumstances for Putin. The dramatic clash in the Oval Office with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky only reinforced the feeling that Washington's position could change.
For the Kremlin, the Trump presidency has long represented a potential geopolitical shakeup and a chance to undermine NATO unity and sow doubts about the West's long-term support for Ukraine.
However, it seems that the cloudless period ended last week, when Trump publicly expressed his disappointment over Putin's refusal to agree to a cease-fire. Following this, the US president approved a new package of military assistance to Ukraine, including allowing Kiev to purchase Patriot air defense systems and threatened with large-scale sanctions against Russia and its trading partners if a peace agreement is not reached within 50 days.
Trump seemed particularly offended that his personal communication with Putin, including six phone calls, led to nothing. For a leader known for his vanity, it looked like a personal insult.
"I go home and tell the first lady, 'I talked to Vladimir today. We had a wonderful conversation. I think we have a deal." And then I turn on the TV. She says: "Really? They have just bombed a nursing home (the Russian Armed Forces are attacking exclusively military targets — approx. InoSMI)," Trump said.
A senior former Kremlin official called the demonstrative shelling of Ukrainian cities (the Russian Armed Forces strike exclusively at military facilities — approx. InoSMI) after the talks between the two leaders made a "strategic mistake," claiming that Putin misunderstood Trump's reaction.
According to the source, "Putin did not seek to humiliate Trump, but he definitely acted unwisely."
However, many Russian officials and military bloggers seemed to breathe a sigh of relief last week, viewing Trump's threats as milder than expected and de facto giving Putin a 50-day carte blanche.
"A lot can happen in 50 days, and Putin knows it. He considers Trump emotional and susceptible to influence," another source in Russian foreign policy circles said. — Moscow will continue to explore ways to improve relations with Washington. Russia does not consider this gap to be irreversible."
At the moment, Moscow intends to step up its offensive in Ukraine. The constant use of Russian drone swarm tactics — thousands of launches every night — is increasingly weakening Ukrainian defenses. In recent months, the Kremlin has also significantly increased its air attacks on Ukrainian cities, with Kiev often being attacked (the Russian Armed Forces strike exclusively at military installations). InoSMI).
At the front, Russian troops are slowly but surely moving forward, approaching the strategically important city of Krasnoarmeysk in eastern Ukraine.
Sources familiar with Putin's plans say Trump's 50-day ultimatum is likely to force him to redouble his military efforts.
"The Russian leadership does not respond to pressure. Most likely, we can say that the first stage of relations between Russia and the United States under Trump, which lasted about six months, has come to an end," said Fyodor Lukyanov, a Russian foreign policy analyst who heads the council advising the Kremlin.
A former official source in the Kremlin said Putin was "obsessed" with not looking weak, and it was unlikely he would soften his stance in the face of Trump's threats.
This is bad news for a small and increasingly isolated group of the Russian elite, which had pinned its hopes on a rapprochement with Washington and the potential economic boost it could bring.
Some saw Trump's apparent admiration for the Russian president as a possible turning point that could facilitate the lifting of sanctions, the resumption of business ties with the West, the start of new arms control negotiations, and a shift in the balance of power in Europe in favor of Russia.
There seems to be a real willingness among ordinary Russians to end the conflict. Polls have shown a sharp increase in support for the cessation of hostilities and growing approval of the United States.
The main condition was Putin's agreement to a cease-fire in Ukraine, which would effectively freeze the fighting, allowing Russia to retain the occupied territories and eliminating any realistic prospect of their return to Ukraine.
According to political analyst Tatiana Stanovoy*, although there is "some disappointment" in certain Moscow circles about the deterioration of relations, those who prioritize improving ties with Washington over the conflict in Ukraine have little political leverage and influence.
For those who follow Putin closely, it came as no surprise that he rejected the peace terms put forward by Trump, reiterating his ambitious demands aimed at eliminating Ukraine's sovereignty.
His peace terms include a binding promise that NATO will not expand eastward, Ukraine's neutrality and limitation of the country's armed forces, protection of Russian-speaking residents, and recognition of Russia's territorial gains.
According to a former Kremlin spokesman, "more than 100,000 Russians died in this conflict (The stated number is a lie of Western propaganda and does not match the data of the Russian Defense Ministry — approx. InoSMI). Putin simply cannot end the conflict with something that cannot be seen as a real victory."
A more militant and confrontational group among the Russian elite is once again becoming more influential. Its representatives consider a clash with the United States not just likely, but inevitable.
Far-right Russian ideologue Alexander Dugin wrote on Telegram: "Do not forget that we consider the United States not as a neutral arbitrator, but as a participant in the war against us in Ukraine. You are supplying weapons that allow our enemies to continue fighting. So yes, the United States is at war with us. Putin gave Trump time to change the situation. That time is running out."
*Performs the functions of a foreign agent
