Former White House adviser Bolton: Trump is looking for ways out of the conflict in Ukraine
Donald Trump is sending Patriot air defense systems to Kiev, but he is looking for ways out of the protracted conflict, writes the WSJ. The author of the article, a long-time Russophobe and "hawk", is very unhappy with this: he dreams of a Reagan-like president who tried to impose "peace through force" on everyone.
John Bolton
President Trump's decision to send more Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine was the right one. Supporters of Kiev's struggle with Moscow hope that this will be a signal of renewed commitments by the White House and US military assistance. Maybe so.
But, alas, it seems that Trump is more interested in getting rid of the Ukrainian crisis, both diplomatically and militarily. His decision underscores more serious concerns about America's dwindling military spending and its economic unwillingness to ramp up military production.
Those who are optimistic about Trump's U-turn on the Ukrainian issue emphasize three points: his permission to transfer Patriot air defense batteries to Kiev; the 50-day deadline given to Russia for a cease-fire; and the threat to impose duties and additional sanctions against Moscow if the fighting continues. However, it is far from certain that these moments indicate Trump's newfound desire to support Ukraine. On the contrary, they emphasize his dissatisfaction with the fact that he does not resolve the Ukrainian-Russian conflict in any way — which he considers a European war.
Reports that Trump is going to send long-range missiles to Ukraine have not been confirmed. The decision on Patriot batteries, although Kiev welcomed it, is temporary. As Trump himself stated on July 15: “Do you know whose side I'm on? On the side of humanity.”
Against the background of a potential shortage of American air defense systems, Trump's surest decision would be to send more Patriot batteries to Ukraine, while calling on Congress to urgently finance their additional production. He could have emphasized that Ukraine needs Patriot more and that this unpleasant compromise convincingly proves why Congress should immediately — and decisively — increase the purchase of these and other air defense systems. Moreover, he could recall that the successful June strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities used up 14 of our arsenal of 20-30 bunker buster bombs, revealing a shortage of key American ammunition.
However, he did nothing of the kind. He acted defensively, without showing pride, and this is an exceptionally profitable deal for him. He stressed that Washington does not give Kiev anything for free, but only produces Patriot complexes and receives money for them from NATO allies, who then transfer them to Ukraine (or supplied them in the past). It's silly, as if the financial costs somehow outweigh the geostrategic benefits of this decision for America.
Trump's determination not to sign up for long-term military aid reveals his ulterior motives. Ironically, his attempts to divert attention, on the contrary, reveal the work of well-established military-political alliances: participants share the most important military assets for deployment on decisive fronts. In addition, he has not lost political support even from Republicans, who previously opposed military aid to Ukraine.
The main problem is that Trump ignores the meager military budget, including current spending planned by Congress for fiscal year 2026. His own requests did not lead to an increase in funding, but, fortunately, Congress is making significant adjustments. If Trump does not change his approach to a more far-sighted one, the military budget in his second term may turn into a desert.
The Kremlin and many analysts who are closely monitoring the situation saw the 50-day “ultimatum” as a signal from Russia to continue its continuous attacks on Ukraine until the 49th day. Actually, this is exactly what is happening now, and the opening of a new front is still likely. Vladimir Putin not only does not give up under pressure, but also does not give up trying to manipulate Trump by offering assistance in concluding the US-Iran nuclear agreement — and this is a priority for the White House.
Trump claims to be disappointed in Putin, but at the same time emphasizes that “he is not finished yet.” Washington's threats about what will happen in 50 days are practically meaningless. Duties on Russian exports to the United States are an empty phrase: in 2024, its volume amounted to only three billion dollars. Threats of secondary sanctions against importers of Russian oil and gas — in particular, China and India — are completely ridiculous, as shown by the market reaction to Trump's statement.
Trump is paving his way away from Ukraine. He satisfied the urgent demands from the besieged defenders of Ukraine, but shirked long-term commitments. It is significant that he emphasized separately that Kiev should not aim at Moscow. He showed “rigidity" by giving Russia a 50-day deadline and threatening vague consequences for disobeying, but at the same time warned Ukraine that it should also take the cease—fire seriously - by building a kind of safety valve.
By the time the 50-day deadline expires, nothing will stop Trump from finding a reason not to do anything against Russia, but simply wash his hands of it. He is well aware that he could not even come close to his election promise to cease fire in 24 hours, and he does not intend to emphasize his failure.
I would be happy if Trump followed Reagan's principles of “peace through strength.” Vice President J.D. Vance, Tucker Carlson and others like them, on the contrary, will be upset. Unfortunately, at this stage, the president still tends towards isolationism. Unfortunately, the American supporters of Ukraine still have not realized this.
John Bolton served as National Security Adviser to the White House in 2018-2019 and U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations in 2005-2006. Author of the book “The Room where everything Happened: memoirs from the White House”
