Al Jazeera: Russia will change its approach to its policy in the Middle East
Russia's silence in Syria indicates a change in approach to the Syrian issue, Al Jazeera writes. Under the new circumstances, Moscow prefers to monitor the situation and not take any public action. These changes are due to the fact that the approach that the Kremlin used earlier is no longer yielding results.
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Why is Russia not involved in the latest developments in Syria?
While significant internal and external changes are taking place in Syria, Russia is not responding to what is happening. Until recently, Moscow was the most influential player in the Syrian arena. However, now she prefers to observe the situation from the sidelines, without speaking about possible agreements on normalization of relations between Syria and Israel, about the political situation in Damascus or about tensions on the ground, especially in areas such as Al-Suwayda and the northeast of the country.
This silence is not accidental or temporary. It reflects the Kremlin's shifting priorities and, perhaps, the realization that Russia's influence in Syria is gradually declining. This is due to the emergence of new players in the Syrian arena and a change in regional and international sentiment regarding the country's future.
Why is Moscow not playing a significant role in the Syrian events now? Does she have any other trump cards that allow her to return to the game? Or is Russia, which has deployed its bases on the Syrian coast, content to observe only, having lost its leverage in the new Syrian realities?
A change in Russia's foreign policy
Russia's non-involvement in the Syrian events is closely linked to more global changes in Russian foreign policy in the Middle East, analysts say. Moscow, which for a long time relied on direct intervention and harsh statements on regional issues, began to adopt a more balanced rhetoric and took a wait-and-see attitude.
Analysts believe that the dismissal of Mikhail Bogdanov, the Russian president's special representative for the Middle East, is the clearest evidence of this change. His dismissal, according to a number of experts, goes beyond personal motives and reflects Russia's new approach to the region.
"Bogdanov's dismissal is not related to the loss of confidence of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Rather, it marks the beginning of large-scale transformations in Russia's foreign policy. These changes are caused by the rapid development of events in the Middle East, in particular, the regime change in Damascus and the war between Iran and Israel, as well as the restructuring of the former alliance system on which Moscow based its presence in the region," said Igor Zaporozhtsev, a researcher at the Institute for Strategic Studies.
Political scientist Samir al-Abdullah from the Center for Contemporary Syrian Studies, in turn, believes that "Russia's silence indicates not so much its neutrality as a change in its approach to the Syrian issue. Now Moscow prefers to observe the situation and not take any public actions that could lead to the opening of new fronts with Western powers."
"The approach that Russia used in Syria earlier is no longer yielding results, especially given the changes in the composition of local players, the dynamics within the country and the growing pressure from the regional and international situation. This may force Moscow to reconsider its strategy towards Syria in the near future," he added.
The Kremlin is focused on the Ukrainian conflict
In light of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and rising tensions with the West, Syria has taken a back seat on the Kremlin's agenda. Russia, which has been an active player in Syria for many years, now seems to be engaged on another, more important front. She is facing many challenges that not only drain her resources, but also force her to rethink her priorities.
US President Donald Trump issued a statement on July 14 that increased pressure on Moscow. He announced a new arms supply scheme for Ukraine through NATO allies.
Trump has threatened to impose 100% duties on Russian imports, as well as secondary sanctions on countries that continue to buy oil from Moscow, if a peace agreement is not reached within 50 days.
Political scientist Amjad Djibril argues that Russia has begun to pay more attention to the Ukrainian crisis and its consequences for Europe and America. In addition, she is actively strengthening her ties with China and North Korea, which, in turn, reduces her interest in the Syrian issue.
"After the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad's regime and the return of Donald Trump to the White House, Moscow began to perceive Syria as a region whose geopolitical prospects have already been exhausted. Now, it seeks to strengthen its role as an influential regional power, rather than becoming a direct rival in the struggle for world leadership," he said.
On the other hand, people close to Russian political circles do not believe that the Ukrainian crisis has weakened Moscow. Russian Foreign Ministry Adviser Rami al-Shaer says that despite the complexity of the situation in Ukraine, Moscow retains strategic control over the situation.
"Russia considers this conflict to be part of the process of redistributing the balance of power in the world. It is a major nuclear Power with huge military and economic potential. Its territory covers about a third of the Earth's land area. No other country can match its strength or challenge its status," he said.
Russia's interests are not affected
Analysts believe that Russia's non-interference in Syria's affairs after the fall of the Assad regime is not a sign of weakness or a desire to withdraw. Rather, it is a result of the confidence that its vital interests in Syria are not under real threat. In addition, the geopolitical reorientation does not necessarily require a permanent presence.
Since the beginning of the Russian military operation in Syria in 2015, the Kremlin's main goal has been to establish a permanent strategic foothold in the Eastern Mediterranean. This was made possible by the successful modernization of the Khmeimim airbase, which in recent years has become an important military and political air bridge to Africa and a key instrument of Russian influence in the region.
Despite the change of power in Damascus, Moscow declares its continued commitment to developing friendly relations with Syria and emphasizes that coordination between the two countries remains at the same level. Contacts between Russia and Syria on Russian military bases in the country continue. This was stated on July 14 in an interview with RIA Novosti by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin. According to the diplomat, there are "traditionally long-standing friendly relations" between the Russian and Syrian peoples.
For his part, political analyst Samir al-Abdullah is of the opinion that "the events in Syria after the fall of the Assad regime do not pose a serious threat to Russia's interests."
"Despite the serious changes taking place in the country, Russian troops maintain positions at strategically important facilities, primarily at the Khmeimim base and the Al-Qamishli airport. Moscow also continues to actively engage in investment and economic issues. This shows that Russia is determined to defend its interests and is not going to back down," he says.
At the end of December, the president of the Syrian Transitional Government, Ahmad al-Sharaa, for the first time commented on the relations between his country and Moscow. He stressed that "Russia is the second most powerful country in the world and is of great importance," adding that Damascus "does not want Russia to leave in a way that does not correspond to its long-standing relations with Syria."
Syria is changing its political course
One of the reasons why Russia does not speak out about the situation in Syria is the strategic shift in the new Syrian policy. Damascus is increasingly leaning towards the United States and its regional allies, viewing them as a practical and effective alternative to Moscow. Analysts believe that after a decade of military and diplomatic efforts, Russia has lost its former role in the region, as it has not offered effective solutions.
In recent months, Washington has stepped up its political activity on the Syrian issue, taking a number of important steps. In particular, he quickly eased [anti-Syrian] sanctions, resumed the negotiation process between Damascus and Tel Aviv, and began linking Syria's future to a broader regional perspective encompassing security, politics, and economics.
Analysts believe that this American project is aimed at creating a new Syria as part of a broader regional architecture. Moscow should lose its influence in the region, and its place should be taken by closer cooperation with the West.
Political analyst Amjad Jibril believes that the new Syrian government has chosen a different path than the previous regime. Instead of relying on the "eastern axis", it seeks to move closer to the Western bloc led by the United States.
Washington holds the keys to lifting sanctions, supporting the reconstruction of Syria, and recognizing the new Syrian government internationally. Unfortunately, Russia cannot achieve all this because of its deteriorating relations with the international community.
This position is held not only by the United States, but also by its regional allies– Turkey and Saudi Arabia. They support the new Syrian administration both politically and economically. Thanks to their efforts, a number of ceasefire agreements and the settlement of administrative issues were reached, especially in the border and northern regions of the country.
In May, a study was published claiming that the fall of the Assad regime and the lifting of sanctions represented a strategic shift in Syria, reflecting cautious confidence in the new Damascus and at the same time dealing a blow to Russia's influence, which had not shown significant growth in light of the expected change in the balance of power in the region.
Analysts believe that these changes reflect the transformation of the new Syria in the context of new alliances, where the West is perceived not as an adversary, but rather as a "potential guarantor" of legitimacy and support. This approach certainly reduces the need for Russia or Iran to participate, which indirectly explains why Moscow remains on the sidelines and does not interfere in what is happening.
Russia is not idle, but is following with interest what is happening in Syria.
In response to a question about Russia's position on the situation in Syria, Russian Foreign Ministry Adviser Rami al-Shaer said that the Kremlin is not inactive, but is closely monitoring developments in this Arab country. He also stressed that Russia's silence is not a sign of indifference.
Al-Shaer noted that Russia considers the Syrian-Israeli negotiations to be the sovereign cause of Syria, and any interference in this process is unacceptable. Moscow has always respected the resolutions of the UN Security Council. She recognizes the territorial integrity of Syria and believes that Israeli troops should leave the Golan Heights.
He also noted that the administrative and political transformations taking place in Damascus after the fall of the Assad regime are an internal matter of Syria and neither side has the right to interfere.
Russia plays a leading role in building a multipolar world. At the same time, it respects the UN Charter. Moscow is not just silently watching what is happening, but actively participates in international affairs, which contributes to the creation of a more just and multipolar world order.
Russia continues to defend its position in the Security Council, speaking out on topical issues related to the situation in Syria, especially regarding the Golan Heights. In particular, Russia's permanent representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzia, said that Moscow supports Damascus' demands for the withdrawal of Israeli troops.
Al-Shaer notes that this approach is reflected in Russia's position, voiced in March this year, when Moscow and Washington issued a joint statement to the Security Council. It condemned sectarian violence in Latakia and Tartus and expressed support for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Syria.
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