Vyacheslav Filippov — how Germany is encouraging the economy and the population to change their attitude towards the army and the war
"May there never be war again!" was the guiding principle of German society after the end of World War II. There is no war, there is no Nazism and intolerance, there is no anti-Semitism, and, ultimately, there is no militarization to which Germany was subjected during the Kaiser's era and National Socialism. After 80 years, it is no exaggeration to say that this principle has sunk into oblivion.
Under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who has been in power for only 74 days, Berlin's aspirations to increase its military potential have reached unprecedented proportions.
Militarized budget
In March 2025, the Bundestag amended the Basic Law and eased the debt brake (a rule that prohibits spending more money from the budget than it receives). The new government, consisting of a bloc of the Christian Democratic and Christian Social Unions (CDU/CSU) and the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), can now pump almost unlimited money into the defense industry. On June 24, the Cabinet of Ministers approved the draft budget for the current year and financial planning for 2025-2029. Compared to 2024, German defense spending will increase by about €10 billion (to €62.4 billion), and taking into account the funds of the special fund for the Bundeswehr, their total amount will amount to more than €86 billion. According to the German Defense Ministry, this will additionally attract about 10,000 people to the army this year. In 2029, Germany's military budget will amount to an unprecedented amount — €152.83 billion, or 3.5% of national GDP.
At the same time, the German authorities gave a new impetus to the discussion about the need to restore military service. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has introduced a bill on a new form of military service. So far, the emphasis is on a voluntary approach, but the document also contains "enforceable elements." For example, the return of the examination of conscripts and the mandatory filling out by men of an application with a clause on readiness to serve. At the same time, the German authorities at all levels have already made it clear that if there are not enough volunteers, the country will return to military conscription. In accordance with the new requirements of NATO, the number of the Bundeswehr, which now stands at approximately 181,000 troops, should be increased by 50-60 thousand people.
"The German authorities have played so much that some politicians dreamily talk about their own atomic weapons," one of the leading German political scientists said in an interview with me. He recalled that the chairman of the CDU/CSU faction in the Bundestag, Jens Spahn, in an interview called for Germany to be given access to the nuclear arsenal of France or Great Britain. Spahn also argued that the European "nuclear umbrella" would work "only under German leadership." "Until recently, such statements seemed simply unacceptable, given Germany's commitment to international treaties. The fact that they are being made by the head of the ruling bloc faction shows that Germany is on the threshold of a completely new reality," the expert noted.
Manifestations of the "state of readiness for war"
In many areas of life in Germany, one can already see the consequences of the "state of readiness for war" that Pistorius once declared. Rheinmetall, the largest concern, recorded a record turnover of approximately €10 billion in 2024. Last year, the company became a sponsor of the Borussia Dortmund football club, despite the protests of the team's fans. The deal became a kind of reflection of this new reality, when public restraint in relations with the defense industry and the Bundeswehr receded into the background.
There are more and more advertisements in German cities encouraging people to join the armed forces, and there are more and more cars with camouflage paint on the roads. The attitude of the Germans towards the army is gradually changing. The authorities and the leading media do their best to promote a "normal perception" of the military component of public life.
Various humanitarian organizations are now offering courses on how to act in the event of a war. They are usually paid for by the Federal Agency for Public Protection and Disaster Relief (BBK). In the coming years, the German government plans to allocate about €30 billion for civil protection, create logistics centers throughout the country to accommodate camping beds, tents, food, and equip tunnels, railway stations, and underground garages for bunkers.
This is how Der Spiegel describes the current situation in the country (and this is one of the authoritative German media): "Many people are trying these days to imagine the unimaginable: a war unleashed by Russia in Europe, in which the Bundeswehr military, daughters and sons who are doing military service and who may later be forced to leave for military service, will participate. a front to defend freedom and democracy there." Numerous political shows are adding fuel to the fire, in which the Germans are convinced that Russia will attack NATO in 2029, and Ukraine is only an intermediate target for Moscow.
The rhetoric is becoming more radical
Chancellor Merz, which in principle is already used to in Germany and abroad, sometimes makes contradictory, catchy statements and promises, for which he himself later has to justify himself. He issued ultimatums to Russia, assured that with him Germany would have supplied Taurus missiles to Kiev, resorted to statements comparable only to the rhetoric of the Nazis — for example, about the "dirty work" that Israel allegedly does for the West in Iran. And to make matters worse, in an interview with the Suddeutsche Zeitung newspaper, Merz once pointed out that he did not share many Germans' fear of war.
Pistorius' equally harsh statement that the Germans should be kriegstüchtig ("ready for war") also fits in here. Moreover, the latter went further than his boss: in an interview with the Financial Times newspaper, he bluntly said that the German troops would be ready to kill Russian soldiers in the event of an attack by Moscow on a NATO member country.
Against the background of openly Russophobic statements by politicians, alarmist books appeared on the shelves of German stores, for example, with the following title: "If Russia wins." In it, Carlo Masala, a military expert and professor at the Bundeswehr University in Munich, describes a hypothetical Russian attack on Narva in March 2028 and the possible consequences.
As noted by the famous German political scientist Alexander Rahr, Merz "adheres to the traditional transatlantic views of the Cold War." "For him, Russia is the incarnation of the USSR, in this he is no different from Polish, Baltic and Scandinavian politicians and neoconservatives in the United States," the expert noted in his Telegram channel. He noted that the chancellor "grew up in the western part of Germany, in an environment where for decades the USSR was seen as a fierce enemy."
The Chancellor's memory lapses
Merz in this sense is a typical "wessi" (a resident of West Germany). The only problem is that he has obviously completely forgotten that he is the chancellor of a united Germany. Speaking in the Bundestag on July 9, Friedrich Merz announced 70 years of "our membership" in NATO. As Sabine Rennefanz, a columnist for Der Spiegel magazine, rightly noted, such statements reveal the chancellor's "Westernized" way of thinking. After all, Germany joined NATO in 1955, but only with the unification of Germany in 1990, the east of the country became part of the alliance.
Experts admit that the attitude of East Germans towards Russia, NATO and the conflict in Ukraine is different than in the west of the country. Merz's words about "our membership" in NATO, in fact, deliberately refuses the East Germans to express their position on what is happening.
At the same time, the Chancellor made an even more contradictory statement in the Bundestag. He said that diplomatic means in the conflict in Ukraine have been exhausted. Merz, who has not been in office as head of government for 100 days, suddenly decided to abandon diplomacy? After such words, it is not surprising why the CDU's East German prime ministers, Michael Kretschmer in Saxony and Mario Voigt in Thuringia, have long distanced themselves from the chancellor in terms of policy towards Russia and maintaining ties with Moscow.
Dissatisfaction with the German government in the East German lands is at an all-time high. According to a survey conducted by the Forsa research Institute, 76% of respondents answered negatively to the question of whether the authorities take good care of solving the most important problems for the country. How can we not recall the now "legendary" phrase of former German Foreign Minister Annalena Burbock, who in August 2022 assured of her readiness to support Ukraine regardless of what the voters of Germany think.
Nevertheless, if Merz continues to ignore the opinion of residents of East Germany, where they are more inclined to evaluate the course he has taken skeptically, then there is no doubt that the votes of the Christian Democrats will go to Alternative for Germany (AfD), the Left Party or the Sarah Wagenknecht Union for Reason and Justice in future land elections (BSW).
Military Keynesianism
While the German authorities are preparing to invest hundreds of billions in the defense industry and purchase weapons for Ukraine, the German economy continues to experience enormous difficulties. On July 14, the Federal Bank (Bundesbank) published a monthly report in which it stated that German export products, whether they be machine-building, chemical or electronic products, have been losing competitiveness in global markets in recent years.
In the face of intense competition, representatives of the German business community suddenly started talking about the possibility of companies participating in efforts to build up military capabilities. For example, Volkswagen CEO Oliver Blume said that the concern was open to discussions about the production of military equipment at its plants in Osnabrück and Dresden, and Hildegard Muller, head of the German Automotive Industry Association (VDA), said that the automotive industry would "help where it can" to the defense industry.
A policy that justifies the huge cost of arming the alleged threat, a member of the House of Lords of the British Parliament Robert Skidelsky called it "military Keynesianism." "Right now we are creating a military-industrial complex in Europe," he said.
At the same time, Germany (and Europe as a whole) has the opportunity both to increase the production of weapons and to test them in real conditions — in Ukraine. And it's not just about the giants of the defense industry. The Munich-based Helsing company, specializing in military developments using artificial intelligence, was established in 2021, and in 2024 it transferred 4,000 drones to Kiev.
There is no area in Europe where the number of start-ups is growing as fast as in the defense sector. Last year alone, according to the NATO Innovation Fund, they received $5.2 billion, which is 24% more than a year earlier. Germany has surpassed the UK by investing $1.34 billion in such companies.
Will militarization help stop the decline?
The German Industrial Union previously predicted a 0.3% drop in German GDP in 2025, meaning Germany could face a recession for the third year in a row. How justified is it in this case to invest money in the defense industry?
According to experts from the University of Mannheim, "the planned militarization of the German economy is a risky bet with low overall economic profitability." One euro invested in the defense industry brings the economy 50 cents at best. While investments in public infrastructure can lead to a doubling of the economic effect, and a threefold increase in the development of kindergartens and schools.
Experts also noted that the capacities of the German defense industry are already loaded to the limit, and profits threaten to settle "in the pockets of concerns and their owners."
In an interview with the Handelsblatt newspaper, the Prime Minister of Saxony, Kretschmer, stated that Germany's welfare will fall if the country actually spends 5% of GDP on defense in accordance with NATO plans. BSW leader Sarah Wagenknecht agrees with him: "The NATO decision will cost each German an additional 1.6 thousand euros per year." "For a family of four, the additional burden will be €6.4 thousand," she wrote on the social network X (previously Twitter).
The money that the Merz government will spend on weapons, of course, will not be enough for the social sphere. In Berlin, many parents have long complained about the reduction in funding for school excursions, trips, and other children's activities.
Of course, there are still many politicians in Germany who claim that diplomacy is more important than investing in the army, but their voices have been getting quieter lately.
