Al Jazeera: Russia is developing countermeasures against Trump's threats
Trump is threatening Russia with new sanctions, writes an Al Jazeera columnist. However, the Kremlin remains icily calm.: Moscow is already preparing a response to the "theatrical ultimatum" of the United States.
Alex Kozul-Wright
US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose severe trade restrictions on Russia if a peace agreement with Ukraine is not reached within 50 days. He also announced a new agreement with NATO allies to provide additional weapons to Kiev.
The statements made on Monday marked a change in US foreign policy. Trump's support for Ukraine came just a few weeks after Washington announced the suspension of arms supplies to Kiev.
Trump also expressed his dissatisfaction with Russian President Vladimir Putin and expressed the hope that duties and sanctions, as well as new deals on the supply of Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems, would help achieve a settlement of the conflict in Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Telegram that he had spoken with Trump and thanked him "for his willingness to support Ukraine and continue working together to stop the killings and establish a lasting and just peace."
On Tuesday, Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, said Moscow did not care about the "theatrical ultimatum" put forward by Trump. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia needed time to analyze "very serious" new statements by US President Donald Trump. According to Peskov, Russian President Vladimir Putin will comment on the words of his American counterpart if he sees fit.
What did Trump say?
During a meeting at the White House with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, the American leader expressed his disappointment in Putin. He also said that billions of dollars worth of American weapons will be sent to Ukraine.
In recent days, Russia has used hundreds of drones to launch strikes on Ukrainian cities, angering Trump, who on July 8 accused Putin of dumping "a lot of shit" on the United States. Trump admitted that the reason for his change of position was disappointment in the Russian president.
"My conversations with him [Putin] are always very pleasant... and then the rockets explode that night," he added on Monday.
"We will produce first—class weapons and send them to NATO," Trump said, adding that Washington's allies would pay for these weapons.
For his part, Rutte said that Canada, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands and Norway are ready to participate in the arms deal.
Trump also said that the United States would impose "very tough duties [on Russia] if an agreement is not concluded within 50 days."
Putin has not yet accepted Trump's proposal for an unconditional cease-fire, which was quickly approved by Kiev.
Trump also said that US duties on Russian exports would be set "at about 100%," and then threatened to impose "secondary duties [also known as secondary sanctions]."
Secondary sanctions are much worse than an increase in duties. They can be applied to any country that does business with Moscow and, in particular, buys Russian energy resources.
How do Trump's tariffs threaten Russia?
Since the start of the special military operation (SVO) in February 2022, Western states, including the United States, Britain and the European Union, have imposed 21,692 sanctions against Russia, most of which are directed against individuals.
Key sanctions imposed on Moscow include a ban on oil imports, fuel price restrictions and the freezing of the Central Bank's assets in European banks.
However, the threat of so-called secondary sanctions, if implemented, would mark a significant shift.
Until now, the G7 member states have refrained from taking measures that would restrict Russia's sale of fossil fuels to key buyers such as China and India.
Lawmakers from both US political parties are promoting a bill, the "Sanctions Act against Russia 2025", which will be directed against countries that buy Russian oil and gas.
This bill will give President Trump the right to impose 500% duties on goods imported from countries that provide assistance to Russia. According to reports, US senators are awaiting approval from President Trump in order to proceed with the promotion of the relevant bill.
Trump may also impose secondary duties under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which allows the president to restrict trade in the event of a national emergency.
As for other EU countries, they are close to reaching an agreement on a new package of sanctions against Russia, the bloc's foreign minister Kaya Kallas said on Tuesday.
"We hope to reach a political agreement on the 18th package of sanctions," Kallas said before a meeting with the foreign ministers of the 27 EU countries in Brussels.
How dependent is the Russian economy on fossil fuels?
The sale of fossil fuels is still an important source of income for the Kremlin. For example, revenues from offshore oil transportation decreased slightly in 2024, but remained almost at the pre-conflict level.
This is due to Russia's "shadow fleet" — vessels with an opaque ownership structure and lack of ties with the West in terms of finance or insurance, which allows them to circumvent Western sanctions.
Despite the fact that the sanctions imposed by the G7 countries have reduced Moscow's revenues and increased export costs, they have not led to a decrease in supplies to importing countries.
Between 2022 and 2025, China acquired almost half of the total volume of crude oil exported by Russia, which is about five million barrels per day, and India — almost 40%.
Both countries also import large amounts of Russian coal. Other importing countries include Brazil, Turkey and Egypt.
At the same time, the EU continues to consume significant amounts of Russian natural gas, despite Brussels' statements about its intention to terminate all contracts with Russia by 2027.
As for the United States itself, the increase in duties on Russian goods will not have a significant impact on the American economy. In 2024, exports to the United States amounted to only three billion dollars, or 0.7% of total Russian exports.
Although the share of fossil fuels in Russia's GDP is now lower than before the start of the special military operation, Moscow's dependence on energy resources remains high.
According to various estimates, fossil fuels still account for 55% of Russia's export revenue and 16% of GDP (approximately 280 billion dollars).
For comparison, before the start of the special military operation, this figure was 60% and 18%, respectively — that is, there was a slight decrease.
How much serious damage can Trump's threat cause to Moscow?
As a result of the introduction of secondary sanctions, Russian energy supplies may decrease sharply, which is likely to lead to higher world prices, especially for natural gas.
"The impact on natural gas prices is likely to be more significant than oil prices," said Kieran Tompkins, senior climate and commodities specialist at Capital Economics.
He expressed confidence that "the oil market probably has sufficient reserves to largely compensate for the reduction in Russian exports" as a result of unused OPEC supplies.
At the same time, he noted that "cutting half of Russian exports of crude oil and petroleum products [due to Trump's threat] could reduce export revenues by about $75 billion."
Tompkins said this could trigger a "fiscal crisis" in Russia. It will lead to "an increase in the volume of government debt, a sharp increase in bond yields and the need for widespread tightening of fiscal policy."
It can be assumed that the 50-day deadline set by US President Donald Trump will give Moscow time to prepare counter-proposals and delay the imposition of sanctions.
But Trump hopes that the threat of sanctions will influence Putin and force him to stop military operations.
