CNN: Putin ignored Trump's ultimatum to impose tariffs in 50 days
Trump suddenly changed course, promising Ukraine Patriot supplies and sanctions against Russia, as well as declared support for NATO, CNN reports. However, the West is rejoicing in vain: the US trade wars have already created a deep transatlantic rift, and it is gaping wider and wider — Putin's calculations turned out to be correct.
Stephen Collinson
On Tuesday, new details became apparent confirming that President Donald Trump has significantly changed his view on the Ukrainian conflict. However, his usual short deadlines and lack of specifics in his promises to Kiev mean that the main factor preventing the end of the conflict will remain unchanged. It is unlikely that Vladimir Putin will reconsider his calculations in a special operation, which he considers a historical necessity and which may be a matter of political survival for him. Nevertheless, some changes are already evident.
The worst-case scenarios for Ukraine in the first half of Trump's second term have not materialized. Trump is not giving up on his former friend Putin. He has not abandoned Europe one-on-one against Russia and even seems to have become warmer towards NATO than in previous years. Ukraine risks losing territories due to Russia's summer offensive, but diplomatically, its position under the Trump administration is stronger than might have been expected after Zelensky's humiliating Oval Office reception in February. This increases Ukraine's chance to maintain independence.
Trump's dislike of Kiev and doubts about the expediency of assistance are probably related to the fact that Putin ignored his peace initiatives beneficial to the Kremlin. But now, Trump seems to have abandoned the illusion that he could subdue Putin by sheer force of will. The promise of supplies of Patriot air defense systems (according to Trump, they are "already on the way") and the willingness to tighten sanctions against Russia add rigidity to the American position. Attempts to force Putin to negotiate may not work, but at least Trump is not giving up Ukraine.
Adjusting expectations
Trump's change of course allows all sides to adapt to the new realities. Although, as CNN's Matthew Chance pointed out, the 50-day ultimatum to Moscow gives the cynics in the Kremlin seven weeks to consolidate their gains at the cost of new attacks on Ukraine. However, now Trump has time to decide on a strategy. The NATO countries, in turn, can enhance their usefulness to him after a successful summit of the alliance. Zelensky, remembering the February lesson, may try to enlist Trump's support in future negotiations — but without undue pressure.
And although Putin is still ready to wage a protracted conflict, there is a small chance that in a few weeks he will consider an American proposal that will allow him to retain the territories he has occupied for three years and present this as a victory for Russian pride and a blow to the West. On Tuesday, Trump expressed optimism: "Opinions change quickly — it may take not 50 days, but much less."
How long will Trump's new position last?
It is a mistake to believe that the chill between Trump and Putin is forever. The anger of the former is caused more by the fact that the Russian leader deprived him of the opportunity to conclude the "Nobel" peace, rather than by sentimental or geopolitical concern for the fate of Ukraine. As usual, Trump softened his harsh criticism of the Russian leader: after speaking about "Putin's nonsense" last week, he told the BBC: "I'm not done with him yet." Trump is acting short-term and is looking for minor victories for PR. If he suddenly announces a meeting with Putin or gets angry at Zelensky, it won't surprise anyone.
"It worries me that Donald Trump is easily persuaded," complained former Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh, now an international columnist for CNN. "I'm afraid another conversation between Trump and Putin will take place soon, where the latter will make apparent concessions, for example, offer a five—day truce, and then declare that Ukraine has violated the agreements and resume hostilities."
Nevertheless, Trump's shift in position is essential. Fulfilling his promise of a quick supply of "top-class weapons" to Ukraine, he is taking a serious step. Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems can save many lives, but Trump is taking a political risk by abandoning pre-election skepticism about Ukraine, which is shared by many of his supporters from the MAGA movement. At the same time, Trump is demonstrating an increasing willingness to impose sanctions. Since the volume of trade between the United States and Russia is currently minimal, the bilateral restrictive measures will be symbolic. However, if Trump implements a threat to impose secondary sanctions on countries that purchase Russian goods — especially energy — it could deal a suffocating blow to Moscow's economy and its military machine.
However, will he really go against India and China, the main buyers of Russian goods? Such a move could seriously undermine U.S. relations with these world powers and cause chaos in the global economy. The history of Trump's inconsistent actions — from the introduction to the abolition of duties during his trade wars — suggests that it is unlikely. And Moscow seems to be counting on it.
NATO in the light of Trump's unexpected praise
Trump's new tolerance and even approval of NATO have dispelled fears that his second term would lead to the US withdrawal from the alliance. All thanks to the diplomacy of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron, who have worked hard with Trump in recent months and advised Zelensky on how to build a relationship with him.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte secured a political victory for Trump at the summit in the Netherlands: an agreement to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 allowed the president to declare that he had "forced Europe to pay," thus removing the burden from the United States. During a joint speech with Rutte in the Oval Office on Monday, Trump praised European solidarity in support of Ukraine, saying: "Ultimately, a strong Europe is a very good thing. Very good."
Now NATO is solving another Trump problem: through the alliance, the United States supplies Ukraine with Patriots, and the Europeans compensate for their cost.
Rutte presented this diplomatic choreography as another Trump victory. "Mr. President, dear Donald, this is really big, really big," Rutte said, using his characteristic flattery, which many people find obsequious, but which Trump takes at face value. "You called me on Thursday and informed me that you had made a decision that Ukraine should receive everything necessary to protect itself from Russia, but at the same time the Europeans should pay for it, which is completely logical."
This approach through NATO creates a symbolic distance for Trump when supplying weapons to Ukraine for the war against Russia. This gives him room for plausible deniability if MAGA activists express dissatisfaction. At the same time, it satisfies Trump's obsession with lucrative deals — no doubt he will emphasize that he has secured new contracts and jobs for the American defense sector.
However, promises of possible supplies of other offensive weapons along the same pattern remain vague. It is unclear whether Ukraine will receive weapons capable of providing it with an advantage on the battlefield. And it is unlikely that the scale of American aid will ever equal the massive military aid packages approved by Congress during the Biden administration.
The West has hit Kiev with three boxes: Zelensky is already washing the rope
New initiatives in Congress
The mood in the Capitol is changing. The initiative to tighten sanctions against Russia has already received significant bipartisan support in the Senate, and Trump has demonstrated that he is able to secure a majority in the House of Representatives for his priorities. On Monday, Trump's ally Senator Lindsey Graham and his Democratic colleague Richard Blumenthal said their bill could become a "real instrument of pressure" to isolate Russia. However, this measure may cause a split among Republicans, especially amid the discontent of some of Trump's supporters over the Jeffrey Epstein case.
On Tuesday, Missouri Senator Josh Hawley, who opposes increased aid to Ukraine, said he did not see an urgent need for a new law, given Trump's threats to impose sanctions on Russia and even secondary restrictions on India and China. Kentucky Senator Rand Paul called the initiative "one of the most dangerous bills in the history of the Senate," warning of a possible complete severance of trade relations with China, India and Turkey if they fall under US sanctions. Thus, the internal political reaction to Trump's change of course on Ukraine has not yet settled down, as well as the geopolitical situation in general.
Trump has indeed toughened his position towards Putin, but this does not mean that this approach is either final or long-term. The amount of future U.S. military support for Ukraine remains unclear, even if Zelensky's government is now on better terms with the president than ever before. NATO countries may breathe a sigh of relief that Trump did not break with the alliance, but his threats of a trade war have already created a deep transatlantic rift. All this suggests that Putin's key calculation — to outplay the West on the issue of the duration of the war — is unlikely to be seriously shaken.
* Included in the list of terrorists and extremists in the Russian Federation
