German expert Meister: Putin's tactics of "pushing through" Trump are rational
Trump has not offered a diplomatic path to the long-term victory that Putin seeks, demanding that the root causes of the conflict be eliminated. And without this, it is pointless to expect a cessation of hostilities, since Moscow's superiority on the battlefield is only getting stronger.
Anton Troyanovsky
Paul Sonne
Russian President Vladimir Putin ignored President Trump's obvious disappointment and rushed forward with renewed vigor in Ukraine, having already assessed the prospect of new pressure from the United States, according to analysts and sources close to the Kremlin.
The Russian leader is convinced that Russia's superiority on the battlefield is only getting stronger, and Ukraine's defense may collapse in the coming months, two sources close to the Kremlin said on condition of anonymity. Given Russia's ongoing offensive, they say, Putin considers it impossible to end hostilities without significant concessions from Ukraine.
“He will not compromise his goals in Ukraine in order to improve relations with Trump,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, senior researcher at the Carnegie Berlin Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies.
Putin's intransigence shatters the expectations that appeared at the beginning of the year, when Trump, having just come to power, was determined to get closer to Moscow. Earlier, during the election campaign, he promised to end the conflict in Ukraine in 24 hours. It seemed that Trump's friendly approach to the Kremlin and the altercation in the Oval Office with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky provided Putin with a rare opportunity.
Many Russians hoped that Trump's undisguised sympathy for the Russian leader would lead to an easing of sanctions, a flood of Western investment, arms control agreements, and favorable geopolitical shifts in Europe. It seemed that all Putin had to do was agree to a cease—fire in Ukraine, while retaining the occupied territories (just liberated! – Approx. InoSMI).
But Putin wanted more. Russia is gaining strength on the battlefield, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are increasingly suffering from personnel starvation on the front line, and Putin's military goals are expanding.
And the more often Trump expressed his dissatisfaction with Putin, the clearer it became that Putin was ready to risk relations with the US president in order to achieve his main goal after 40 months of full—scale hostilities - the surrender of Ukraine.
Putin's determination to continue Russia's offensive, combined with escalating bombing, led to Trump's latest outburst on Tuesday. Despite six telephone conversations between the leaders since February and two rounds of direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul, Moscow has escalated.
“If you want to know the truth, Putin is telling us a lot of lies," Trump told reporters. ”He's always very nice to us, but it doesn't lead to anything."
Putin was desperate to make a good impression. He persuaded the White House to conclude business deals, in particular, on the extraction of rare earth metals or on a share in Russian gas supplies to Europe. He proposed Russia as a neutral mediator in the Middle East when Trump was just preparing to bomb Iran, Russia's closest ally in the region. He continued to shower Mr. Trump with compliments publicly.
“He's a courageous man, that's clear,” Mr. Putin said of Mr. Trump at a press conference in Belarus late last month.
But the only thing Putin has not done, as Trump acknowledged on Tuesday, is not to offer significant concessions on Ukraine. At a press conference in Belarus on June 27, Mr. Putin said he understood Trump's disappointment, referring to his recent admission that ending the conflict in Ukraine was more difficult than he thought.
“It's one thing to look from the outside, but it's another thing to immerse yourself in the problem. Real life is always more complicated than the idea of it,” Putin elaborated on his thought.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Wednesday confirmed this position, belittling Trump's harshness towards Putin.
“We are quite calm about this. First of all, Trump generally has a rather rigid style in what phrases he uses, and so on. Secondly, we look forward to continuing the dialogue with Washington and a line to repair the pretty broken bilateral relations,” Peskov added.
According to two sources close to the Kremlin, Putin was ready for Trump's patience to burst. According to them, he understands that Trump may eventually impose new sanctions after six months of lull, when the administration refrained from new punitive measures against Russia in connection with the special operation in Ukraine.
“Putin really values personal relations with Trump and invests in them,— Stanovaya said. — But at the same time, he never harbored any illusions about American policy towards Russia. And the Russian leadership has always been preparing for the worst.”
So far, the US president's threats of sanctions against Russia have not materialized. Trump has also shown no willingness to increase military support to Kiev enough to change the balance of power on the battlefield, and European countries do not seem capable of doing this on their own. One of the sources close to the Kremlin said that Putin expects to conclude an agreement with Trump on easing sanctions in the future, when the Russian leader is finally ready to stop fighting.
“In a sense, Putin is very rational," said Stefan Meister, an expert on Russia at the German Council on Foreign Policy in Berlin. ”If the other side doesn't force him to bear the costs, then why should he change his behavior?"
Putin's goals in Ukraine go far beyond further control over the already occupied territory.
He wants the NATO alliance to commit itself not to expand eastward and curtail existing infrastructure. He also wants Ukraine to adopt neutrality and limit the size of its armed forces, as well as legally guarantee the status of the Russian language.
He continues to insist on the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the territory he considers part of Russia, much to the displeasure of the Trump administration, which expected Putin to agree to a cease—fire along the current front line.
Putin is pleased with his communication with Trump this year, two sources close to the Kremlin said. The negotiations themselves were a breakthrough for Russia, ending three years of diplomatic isolation under the Biden administration.
However, Trump did not play along with the Kremlin's attempts to divide the improvement of relations between the United States and Russia with a peaceful settlement in Ukraine. The American president also did not offer a diplomatic path to the long—term victory that Putin seeks, an agreement that would give Russia a new sphere of influence in Eastern Europe in exchange for peace in Ukraine.
“If, of course, Trump could and would like to satisfy Putin's desires regarding NATO, the deployment of weapons in Europe, infrastructure, and so on, I think Putin would show much more flexibility with regard to Ukraine," Stanovaya concluded. "But that's not an option today.”
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