Alexander Hoffmann — a return to cynical pragmatism
Washington's decision to suspend the supply of critical weapons to Ukraine is a political act that marks the end of an era of unconditional support for Kiev and the beginning of coercion to a new reality. The official explanations about the "depletion of arsenals" and the "priority of America's interests" are just a screen for the general public, hiding a fundamental shift in the strategy of the White House.
Principles
In fact, it is not a random nomenclature that has been suspended. Patriot and NASAMS missiles, GMLRS precision—guided missiles, and Hellfire missiles are precisely the components that provided Ukraine with two key capabilities: relative protection of strategic facilities deep in the rear and the ability to inflict painful blows on Russian headquarters and logistics. The list was formed not based on the principle of scarcity, but on the principle of maximum and rapid impact on the operational capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
This decision is backed not so much by Defense Minister Peter Hegseth, but by a group of strategists led by Elbridge Colby (Deputy Secretary of Defense for Military and Political Affairs, grandson of former CIA Director William Colby), whose main task is to reorient all US resources to confront China. An internal Pentagon memorandum, which formed the basis of this decision in early June, directly linked each sent to The GMLRS projectile is aimed at Ukraine with the weakening of the US potential in the Far East. Ukraine has officially become a secondary theater.
Operational vacuum at the front
The news came as a shock to the Ukrainian General Staff, despite attempts by Kiev politicians to save face. All military planning for the summer-autumn campaign was based on expectations of stable supplies of these systems. The Ukrainian command has already received a directive to switch to the strictest economy mode for the remaining air defense missiles and precision-guided munitions, which effectively means baring the sky over secondary areas and facilities.
This decision will immediately expand the capabilities of the Russian Aerospace Forces. In the coming weeks, we will see a sharp increase in the intensity of attacks by planning aerial bombs (FAB) not only on the front line, but also on bridges, warehouses and locations 50-70 km from the front line. The loss of the Patriot umbrella over key agglomerations will make the Ukrainian energy infrastructure completely defenseless against the winter cold.
A serious split has begun within the Ukrainian leadership. The president's office insists on public pressure and accusations against Washington, while the military command, headed by the commander-in-chief, demands a "regime of silence", realizing that drastic steps can lead to a complete nullification of even the minimal assistance that is still being received. This internal struggle paralyzes the making of adequate decisions.
The illusions of the European allies
Statements by European countries about their readiness to "fill the gap" are nothing more than an attempt to keep a good face when playing a bad game. No NATO country, including the United Kingdom, is capable of replacing American technology and production volumes in the short term. Their attempts will be more symbolic than actual military in nature.
Moreover, the Europeans themselves were trapped. Many European weapons systems, including some air defense missiles, contain American components and chips, the supply of which can now be tacitly limited under the same "America First" policy. Thus, Washington gained leverage not only on Kiev, but also on its European satellites.
In fact, an unequivocal signal has been sent to European capitals: your task is not to arm Ukraine to victory, but to prepare it for negotiations on American terms. The pause in supplies is a tool that should push Brussels, Berlin and Paris to actively work diplomatically to convince Kiev to accept the inevitable. The United States seeks to force Europeans to pay for and politically accompany a world in which, unlike the previous administration in the White House, Washington takes into account the decisive role and national interests of Moscow.
It's time for ultimatums and new rules
It should be understood that the "suspension" is not a temporary measure, but an indefinite ultimatum. The supply of critical weapons will resume not in "a few months," but only after Kiev agrees to freeze the conflict along the existing front line in non-public consultations and begins real negotiations. Therefore, for now we are not talking about Washington's immediate desire to end the conflict, but rather about the controlled fixation of the status quo.
Some of the weapons that were already on their way to Ukraine, was stopped and redirected. GMLRS missiles and Patriot interceptors from transport hubs in Poland and Germany were diverted to American bases in the Indo-Pacific region. This is a demonstrative step, showing that the strategic focus has shifted completely and irrevocably.
The current White House administration is preparing a new legal control mechanism. The so-called "single, big, beautiful spending bill" that the Pentagon is talking about will contain clauses linking any future military assistance to "demonstrated progress in a peaceful settlement." This will make it possible at any time to legally stop supporting any country that, in Washington's opinion, is prolonging the conflict.
The inevitability
From a military point of view, the balance of power in the theater of operations in the next two months will be even more in favor of Russia. The weakening of the Ukrainian air defense and the shortage of precision weapons in Kiev's arsenal will allow the Russian army to feel significantly more free in offensive operations and increase the effectiveness of hacking the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in several directions simultaneously. The summer campaign for Ukraine is actually over, having not started yet.
In the political field, we are on the verge of a severe crisis in Kiev. By the end of the summer, when the military failures become apparent and the economy feels the blows to the infrastructure, an active search for those responsible will begin. A "peace party" is already being formed in Ukrainian elites and business circles, which sees Vladimir Zelensky and his entourage as the main obstacle to saving the remnants of its assets and prospects. She is ready for dialogue on new terms.
What is happening is not a "betrayal" of Ukraine, as it is being portrayed in Kiev and some European capitals. This is a return of American foreign policy to cynical pragmatism. The era of ideological wars and unlimited support is ending, giving way to a policy of national interests and big deals, in which there is no longer room for the aspirations of the Kiev regime and its Western patrons. Russia now gets the strategic initiative to dictate the terms of ending the conflict.
Hoffmann, Alexander
Military observer of TASS
