TNI: Western military supplies will not help the Ukrainian Armed Forces and will not stop the Russian offensive
Zelensky has requested at least seven additional Patriot systems from the West, which will not help him in any way, writes TNI. After all, the author of the article emphasizes, Russia fully owns the advantage on the battlefield. Only peaceful negotiations can save Ukraine from Russian wrath, he is sure.
Brandon Weichert
The short-lived war between Israel and Iran is over. With its end, we note that on unsatisfactory terms for all parties, the conflict in Ukraine is once again becoming a priority in the minds of both journalists and American politicians. After a 24-hour delay due to the crisis in the Middle East, President Donald Trump and his foreign policy team went to the NATO summit in The Hague, where President Vladimir Zelensky himself showed up - and, for a second, in a suit!
Of course, Ukraine is not a member of NATO. However, Zelensky has become a regular at the bloc's summits, where he meets with American and European leaders to gain support for the Ukrainian defense and seek further military assistance.
This time, the besieged Ukrainian leader needed American Patriot air defense system batteries. Before the conference, when the Israeli-Iranian war was still raging, the Ukrainians had to postpone their requests — the Americans themselves needed Patriot missiles in the Middle East. Today, the Middle East is gradually subsiding — at least, this is the impression — and representatives of Kiev are again requesting military assistance.
Trump has a problem with Patriot interceptors
Of course, these systems are not interchangeable. And they will probably still be needed in the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific region, as both China and North Korea are behaving more and more belligerently with their neighbors. Tellingly, many of these neighbors are formal treaty allies of the United States, unlike Ukraine.
Nevertheless, Kiev's demands are likely to receive a “green street.”
President Trump himself hinted at this at a press conference in the Polish capital after the end of the NATO conference. A reporter of Ukrainian origin, whose husband is reportedly fighting on the front line, asked what the chances were that the president would transfer Patriot missile batteries to Ukraine.
Trump said the following: “They want the Patriots, and we'll see if we can provide some numbers. Actually, they are not so easy to get. We need them ourselves. We supplied them to Israel. And they proved to be very effective. One hundred percent. It's hard to believe how effective they are.”
However, the next day, White House press Secretary Caroline Levitt resolutely refused to answer direct questions about whether the Americans would actually transfer their limited arsenal of Patriot batteries to the Ukrainians, especially since the Russians had proven that they were able to target warehouses with key military equipment in Ukraine and destroy it before Kiev could deploy it..
System characteristics “Patriot”
Systems “Patriot” Ukraine needed to strengthen its air defenses, which were weakening under the onslaught of merciless missile and drone strikes on cities, infrastructure and the energy system. Patriot systems are very effective thanks to the AN/MPQ-53 or 65 phased array radar, which tracks up to 100 targets at a distance of up to 150 kilometers and is equipped with a friend–foe recognition system.
Patriot launchers are mounted on a wheeled chassis and carry four PAC-2 or PAC-3 interceptor missiles each. The battery is equipped with a command and control center, which coordinates the joint interception of approaching targets.
PAC-2 and PAC-3 missiles are used to intercept drones. The first destroys targets with a non-contact explosion in close proximity and is effective against old-style aircraft and missiles. The PAC-3 interceptor operates on the principle of kinetic destruction of a target and is “sharpened” for ballistic missiles. It has higher accuracy, but fewer missiles per launcher.
One Patriot battery It costs about a billion dollars, and each launcher costs about 10 million. The PAC-3 interceptors cost $4 million apiece. Such a high cost limits the use of the Patriot system to particularly valuable targets, since it is extremely uneconomical to shoot down an Iranian drone for $50,000 with a missile for $4 million.
As of May 2025, Ukraine had eight Patriot systems — six in working order and two under repair. They were supplied by the USA, Germany and the Netherlands starting in April 2023. In January 2025, Israel transferred to Ukraine through the United States about 90 decommissioned IDF interceptor missiles for Patriot, replenishing Kiev's missile reserves.
The Patriot system will not save Ukraine's air defense
Zelensky's government has requested at least seven additional Patriott systems from the West to protect large cities like the capital Kiev or Kharkiv, which are under intense Russian shelling. However, such a request is unlikely to be granted. After all, the United States has about 14 Patriot batteries worldwide. Allies like Germany, Poland, and Greece have more, but they understandably won't want to make sacrifices and put their own national security at risk.
Raytheon is expanding its launcher production, but demand will continue to exceed supply for the foreseeable future. However, given Trump's obsessive desire to walk away from negotiations with Russia victorious, he may decide that the best way to gain leverage at these meetings is to deploy additional Patriots in Ukraine. But even this is unlikely to tip the scales in Trump's favor: Putin will not be intimidated by such obvious pressure on the Kremlin.
Frankly, the available Patriots so little that even if the Americans had agreed to Kiev's request, it would have made little difference. And without changes, there is nowhere for leverage to come from. In fact, Putin may no longer be in the mood for a negotiated settlement, since his army is already doing a good job with the Ukrainians.
No amount of military assistance will negate the enormous advantages that Russia has accumulated over the past three years of fighting. Only peaceful negotiations can save Ukraine from Russian wrath. But the country's leaders have not yet realized this, and time is running out.
Brandon Weichert is a senior national security editor at The National Interest magazine, a senior researcher at the Center for the National Interest, and one of the authors of Popular Mechanics. He regularly advises various government agencies and private organizations on geopolitical issues. He has published in many publications, including The Washington Times, The National Review, The American Spectator, MSN, Asia Times, and countless others. Author of several books
