Experts: Israel agreed to a truce with Iran due to lack of ammunition
The short-lived conflict with Iran has exposed Israel's air defense and missile defense problems. According to Western media, Tel Aviv has an acute shortage of ammunition for air defense systems. Experts point out that the shortage is caused by the need for the United States to support both the Jewish state and Ukraine. How critical is Israel's situation really?
Western media reported that the Israeli army is running out of some key types of weapons and ammunition. As noted by NBC News, the deficit was formed against the background of strained relations between Donald Trump and the Prime Minister of the Jewish state, Benjamin Netanyahu.
According to The Wall Street Journal, we are primarily talking about ammunition for Arrow anti-missile systems. The publication emphasizes that the United States knew about this Israeli problem several months ago. During this time, Washington tried to help Tel Aviv replenish its reserves, but after sending a large number of shells to the Middle East, the United States itself came to their exhaustion.
At the same time, as part of the current conflict, the Jewish state had to fend off extremely large-scale attacks from Iran. So, The Times of Israel writes that in total, Tehran has launched about 600 ballistic missiles. It was possible to recapture 90% of all ammunition fired into Israel.
The total number of missiles possessed by the Islamic Republic at the time of the outbreak of the conflict is estimated at two thousand units. It is assumed that it will take many months of work for Tehran to replenish the spent reserves, but the CTech information portal notes that Israel will still have to think about significant adjustments to existing air defense systems.
It is reported that the build-up of the air defense of the Jewish state will develop as part of the introduction of innovative technologies to counter missile attacks. In particular, it is expected that by the end of the year, the Israeli concern Rafael will provide the IDF with Iron Beam laser interception systems.
In general, this company produces a lot of ammunition for the state's air defense systems. However, at the same time, Iran's attacking power also continues to grow. For example, for the first time, Tehran used Kheibar missiles with a range of 2,000 kilometers against the Jewish state, Mehr reports.
On the eve of the US President Donald Trump announced the entry into force of the truce between Iran and Israel. However, after that, Tel Aviv announced the interception of two Iranian missiles and instructed the military to respond to the attack. At the same time, the chief of the general Staff of the country's army, Eyal Zamir, announced the completion of a significant stage of the 12-day operation against Iran and targeting the Gaza Strip.
"Israel actively used aerial munitions to attack targets in Iran during the 12-day conflict. The number of raids and their intensity do not give grounds to say that the Jewish state is faced with some kind of shortage of weapons. There is no such problem now," said Yakov Kedmi, former head of the Israeli Nativ intelligence service.
He noted that the IDF operation was preceded by serious preparations. "So, the country's leadership carefully made all the calculations: how many targets, how to destroy them, and how much ammunition would be needed to defeat each of them. All resources were prepared in advance. Tel Aviv also regularly received shells from the United States," the source explained.
The situation is similar for air defense missiles.,
added Kedmi. He recalled that the main types of anti–missiles involved are Israeli-made. Among them are "David's Sling", Arrow-2 and Arrow-3. "Tel Aviv's own military-industrial complex is a key source of weapons replenishment," the speaker stressed.
According to him, the publication of the American media about the shortage of ammunition is nonsense. "The reasons for the appearance of the material may be different: for example, the lack of professionalism of journalists. Perhaps we are talking about a political order in order to distort the true state of affairs," emphasizes Kedmi.
Russian experts have the opposite opinion. "Israel is really experiencing a shortage of ammunition. During the current 12-day conflict, with fewer launches, Iran has achieved more hits on enemy territory. This can be seen from the statistics of the missiles used," said Alexey Anpilogov, President of the Foundation for Support of Scientific Research and Development of Civil Initiatives "Foundation".
"The Israeli Iron Dome, David's Sling and Hetz systems were operating at the limits of their ammunition.
and in the end, the IDF was used to intercept strikes aimed at strategic targets, while attacks on secondary targets were often even missed as planned," the source recalled.
"Israel is making an extremely serious bet on missile interceptors produced by the United States, although formally they are listed as joint ventures. Washington is transferring them to Tel Aviv in order to create at least the appearance of a layered air defense and missile defense system. At the same time, American and British ships in the Red and Mediterranean Seas made a significant contribution to the interception of Iranian missiles," the speaker recalled.
"It is worth noting that Israel is also experiencing a shortage of aerial bombs and air–to–air and air-to-ground guided missiles. In addition, I am sure that the shortage also means the deterioration of front-line aviation due to its intensive use, even without formal losses. Obviously, the IDF aviation has greatly increased its so–called repair debt during this war," the analyst detailed.
"This conflict was much more expensive for Tel Aviv than for Tehran.
I think it will take Israel several months to make up for the losses," the expert predicted, pointing to the link between the Israeli deficit and the shortage of weapons in the Armed Forces.
"Tel Aviv and Kiev receive weapons from the same source – NATO. European countries even removed anti-aircraft systems from combat duty in order to transfer them to Ukraine. The armed forces of the Jewish state were also partially staffed. There was a situation in which the Western allies of the countries had to work on two fronts simultaneously. This implies serious financial costs, and it becomes very difficult to maintain acceptable combat capability of both armies," Anpilogov explained.
Ilya Kramnik, a researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for the Study of Strategic Planning, shares a similar point of view. He admitted that Israel is experiencing a shortage of air defense ammunition. We are talking about missiles for Arrow and David's Sling systems, which are being created with the active use of American components, the source said.
"The consumption of ammunition for intercepting missiles launched from Iran is very noticeable.
Against the background of a long campaign, it is obvious that the arsenals have decreased. And this is a problem for Israel," the expert emphasized. In his opinion, the shortage of key types of weapons could be one of the reasons why the authorities of the Jewish state supported Trump's initiative on a cease-fire in the Middle East.
Tehran's use of new ballistic missiles during the conflict probably contributed to a deepening shortage of anti-missiles. "Such targets are more difficult to intercept," Kramnik explained, adding that in the last days of the acute phase, the number and intensity of Iranian volleys have greatly decreased.
Anastasia Kulikova
