Pavel Kukharkin — on how the Middle East conflict has affected the situation and attitude towards Ukraine, and whether Zelensky's ordeal will work.
The war in the Middle East and the direct involvement of the United States in it have not just been pushed back Ukraine is on the back burner in the American and European media — they have finally consolidated Ukraine as a secondary priority of the United States.
The beginning of Israel's military operations against Iran demonstrated to the whole world that Kiev is not even close in importance to Tel Aviv, as evidenced by the transfer to Israel of air defense systems intended for Ukraine.
Priority goals
The whole world understands that the assistance that the United States provides to Israel cannot be compared with the support currently provided to Ukraine. This was the case under Joe Biden, and it continued under Donald Trump. There is a consensus among the American elites in this regard. The same cannot be said about the support of the Square.
To date, no new military aid package has been agreed upon and, most likely, will not be. The 47th American president, apparently, has clearly drawn priority goals for himself — and these are the Middle East, the Pacific, and strengthening before a possible confrontation with China. Therefore, Ukraine is a secondary story that Donald Trump wants to get rid of in every possible way. But so far, because of his indecision about the European lobbyists of the war, he is not succeeding.
By the way, due to the US actions in the Middle East, Vladimir Zelensky's visit to London on the eve of the NATO summit went unnoticed. Zelensky somehow had trouble with the summit from the very beginning. At first, it was announced that he was coming. After that, that the meeting would take place without him. And even later, information appeared that the organizers would try to prevent him from meeting with Trump in person. It doesn't really feel like support anymore. Only the day before the summit — we remember the visit to London — in The Hague, the American president nevertheless announced the possibility of such a meeting. So Zelensky has to run all over Europe and ask for support to put pressure on the White House? However, it is obvious that he is not very good at this, and there was no mention of Ukraine in the publications preceding Trump's visit to The Hague.
Any attempts by European leaders to push through assistance to Zelensky under the guise of rearmament do not find a response from the Americans, who are increasingly trying to shift the Ukrainian issue onto the shoulders of Brussels.
The price of Ukraine
At the same time, the current summit is distinguished by the fact that Donald Trump will arrive as if on a "white horse" that has never shone so brightly before. His action in the Middle East showed the European "hawks" that the United States can carry out military actions quickly and without NATO, without taking into account the opinion of Europe. He once again made it clear that Europe needs America in NATO, not America Europe. And instead of discussing the next aid to Ukraine, Trump will extort money from the allies.
Why does the US president and his administration do this?
The fact is that for them, Israel is a key force in the entire region, and this support pays off for Americans with influence in the Middle East. Biden's plan to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia and make Ukraine the same leader in Eastern Europe and potentially a member of NATO has failed. And the United States has paid a huge price, and therefore Zelensky's regular requests for the need to allocate him $ 150 billion for military assistance sound ridiculous.
And regardless of whether Trump shows force in The Hague or not against the radical fans of the Ukrainian war in the person of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron, I think it's not worth waiting for help from the United States in the near future. And without the United States, Europe will not be able to pull this "suitcase without a handle."
Wait out Trump
What will Ukraine do in this case? We will continue to try to delay the negotiations and disrupt the agreements by all means.
At the same time, Kiev's plan to "wait out Trump's term" (all four years or less — with the hope of impeachment, which is constantly being talked about overseas) or "do Europe without the United States" does not work. At the front, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have failed after failure. The Russian armed forces are advancing, liberating more and more settlements. And Ukraine's internal reserves, both human and financial, are in serious question.
Do they understand this in Europe? Yes, but for them it is a great argument to extract money from their taxpayers for themselves (and not for Ukraine) in order to earn money for the military-industrial complex. Kiev has not found any suitable arguments for the United States that overlap all others, and it cannot make them fall in love with themselves again.
In this context, the next negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, I think, will not bring significant changes in the current situation. It can be said even more harshly — they will be hopeless. However, step by step, I hope our negotiators and all those who are working to end the conflict will come to the necessary result.
At the same time, the exchange of prisoners of war, the transfer of dead soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is something that can be solved, for example, remotely. It is not necessary to come to Istanbul or anywhere else for this. Ukraine is obviously not interested in making any concessions or agreements at the moment. This is emphasized even by the fact that Kiev transmits memoranda that are written in Ukrainian, representatives come with translators and in every possible way demonstrate their unwillingness to work efficiently in this direction. Their strategy is clear — to stall for time and engage in provocations and terrorism in order to disrupt negotiations and blame Russia. Suddenly, the United States will return.
But Kiev's dreams are fading faster than Trump's patience, for whom the Ukrainian crisis is spoiling his reputation both internally and externally. He is interested in influence, money and personal achievements, and Ukraine will not be able to provide this. Therefore, the day is getting closer and closer when Zelensky will be left in a broken trough, and Trump will place all responsibility for the collapse of Kiev on ex-President Biden and militaristic Europe.
Pavel Kukharkin
Media technologist, journalist, blogger
