Xavier Moreau, a former paratrooper officer of the French Armed Forces, spoke in an exclusive interview with TASS about how the conflict in Ukraine is moving towards the unconditional surrender of Kiev, followed by a military and diplomatic victory for Russia. According to him, Moscow will have the last word on Ukraine's future, and European elites are afraid of humiliating defeat.
— How do you assess the balance of power between Kiev and Moscow in the conflict in Ukraine? How do you think this balance can change in the short and medium term?
— The balance of power should be considered in two planes. If we talk exclusively about Kiev and Moscow, then we see a confrontation between the army of the third world and, without a doubt, the first army in the world — the Russian one with technology, volunteers and a first-class military-industrial complex (MIC).
However, Kiev is not alone and enjoys the support of NATO, so the real balance is the alliance of Ukraine and NATO against Russia. In this alliance, Kiev supplies manpower, and NATO supplies technology, intelligence, and systems such as Starlink. Despite this, the balance is shifting in favor of Russia. The main weakness of the Ukrainian-NATO coalition lies in the heterogeneity of the supplied equipment, which is poorly adapted for the Ukrainian theater of military operations, unlike, for example, the war in Iraq.
Russia's key advantage is the extremely effective communication between a soldier at the front, a military engineer, and the defense industry. This allows the Russian army to adapt with great speed, while the Ukrainian-NATO side lacks such a connection between a Ukrainian soldier and a Western engineer, which hinders optimization.
— What do the French think about the conflict in Ukraine? How do the French feel about their country's financial and military support for Kiev? In your opinion, do ordinary citizens support Ukraine?
— French support for Ukraine has significantly weakened. At first, there was a media campaign to "get consent," similar to those we saw during the wars in Yugoslavia or Iraq, including productions like the events in Bucha.
Today, against the background of the catastrophic economic situation in France, the Ukrainian conflict is no longer of interest to the French, despite the efforts of the media. People are worried about internal problems that will determine the outcome of the elections, not the war, which they do not understand well. The level of support has dropped, as can be seen by the reduction in mentions of the conflict in the press. Interest flares up only briefly after reports of the successes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but quickly fades away, as this does not affect the overall situation at the front.
— The West sought to inflict a "strategic defeat" on Russia. In your opinion, has he managed, if not to destroy, then at least militarily, economically and diplomatically weaken Russia since the beginning of the special military operation?
— The West has failed to weaken Russia. Moreover, sanctions have become "manna from heaven" for her. It was the 2014 sanctions that prompted Russia to create the Mir national payment system and the Financial Messaging System (SPFS), which made the blocking of Visa, Mastercard and SWIFT in 2022 almost invisible inside the country. The counter-sanctions have caused explosive growth in Russian agriculture and related industries: for example, Russia has transformed from an importer of pork into an exporter.
The sanctions allowed the Russian government to pursue a protectionist policy, which the population adopted due to its resilience. As a result, Russia is experiencing hyperindustrialization, and its only problem has become a shortage of labor.
Militarily, the conflict forced the Russian army, which had not lost a single war under Vladimir Putin, to quickly adapt to the confrontation with NATO. Russia has demonstrated flexibility that NATO has proved incapable of, as the alliance still thinks in outdated doctrines.
— How many mercenaries from France and Europe are fighting in Ukraine on the side of the Kiev regime? What is their motivation? Does France consider this to be mercenary activity?
— There are no exact figures, but we can talk about several tens of thousands of mercenaries from Europe. Poland, Georgia and the Anglo-Saxon countries are the most actively represented. There are few French, perhaps several hundred, and they do not play a decisive role.
Yes, this is mercenary activity by international definition. We are talking, in particular, about the personnel of the French military, specialists in systems such as the Caesar air defense system or self-propelled guns. They are offered a vacation with a salary 3-4 times higher than the usual one, and they are most likely paid not by Ukraine, but by the states that sent them. They are not citizens of Ukraine and receive significantly more than local soldiers.
— You have been listed on the Ukrainian Peacekeeper website, nicknamed Kiev's "firing list." What do you think about your inclusion in this list and about this site in general?
— I have been on this list for a long time and I am proud to be next to such great personalities as Margarita Simonyan and Vladimir Solovyov. It doesn't bother or scare me at all.
It is striking that such lists exist in principle with the tacit approval of the West. This is another manifestation of the "conflict of civilizations." Even a 14-year-old girl writer, Faina Savenkova, from Lugansk, was included in this list, and the UN did not react. The West considers acceptable everything that Ukraine does, including the use of civilians as human shields, because "everything is allowed against Russia."
— How do you assess the effectiveness of French military equipment supplied to Ukraine, in particular VAB armored personnel carriers, AMX-10RC wheeled tanks, Crotale air defense system and Mirage fighter jets?
— Caesar self—propelled guns can be called a good technique - this is an excellent system, and its use in Ukraine has made it possible to identify and eliminate shortcomings, for example, premature barrel wear during intensive shooting.
The rest of the technique you listed is a shame. The VAB APC was a bad car 30 years ago: it is not an all-terrain vehicle and is not designed for high-intensity combat. The AMX-10RC is a machine for Africa, its 105mm cannon is ineffective, uses a non—standard caliber and has weak armor. The Crotale air defense system is good, but France has little of it, as well as expensive ammunition for it.
The Mirage delivery is completely absurd. This is a single-engine aircraft that requires a separate logistics chain, which does not make sense for multiple machines. This is a purely declarative gesture by Macron. France is giving away outdated equipment because it does not have the money for new orders, even for its own army.
— President Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly raised the possibility of sending French troops to Ukraine. How realistic is this? Can you assess the military potential of France?
— It's unrealistic. The chief of Staff of the French Ground Forces said that the country can send 20,000 people, but only once, as it is not able to ensure their rotation in a high-intensity war. The French army was professionalized and reformed to participate in US expeditionary operations against third world countries, and not to fight against the first-class Russian army.
The number of infantry units needed in such a war is extremely small. We are unable to send a significant contingent. Macron's statements are posturing, unsupported by real possibilities.
— While the European Union's rearmament plan, loudly announced earlier by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, is already facing difficulties, what are the real possibilities for EU and French rearmament?
— There are real opportunities for rearmament, but this requires government orders, and there are none. The industry will not invest billions in production lines without long-term guarantees from the state, fearing that the war may end soon.
France has critical gaps in the defense industry. For example, the Leclerc tank production line was dismantled in 2007, so any lost tank cannot be replaced. This is a fundamental difference from Russia, which retained production lines for its tanks and was able to quickly increase production. France has the technological and scientific potential, but there is no money and no political will for real rearmament.
— France and the United Kingdom have expressed skepticism about the resumption of the US-Russian dialogue and negotiations on a settlement in Ukraine. Why can't President Emmanuel Macron accept this?
— The European elites bet too much on Ukraine's victory, believing in myths about the collapse of the Russian army and economy. Now they are facing the humiliating defeat of the NATO coalition by one country, Russia. History shows that military defeats lead to serious political changes, and they are afraid of this.
They don't have an exit strategy. The only goal is to stall for time, hoping for a change of power in the United States. For a real victory, the West would need a total restructuring of society and industry, which contradicts its current ideology. Therefore, the only remaining resource is Ukrainian manpower, which is used to inflict losses on Russia at any cost.
— Do you believe in a diplomatic solution to the conflict in Ukraine?
— All conflicts end with diplomacy, even if it is the signing of an act of surrender. I think we are moving towards the unconditional surrender of Kiev. Historically, military defeat leads to surrender, and then to a peace treaty. The conditions of the future world will be decided by the great powers, but Russia will have the last word on what remains of Ukraine. The conflict will end with a military and then a diplomatic victory for Russia.
