Welt: Brussels no longer has influence in the Middle East
Brussels has lost its influence in the Middle East, writes Welt. On Friday, the European diplomats decided to discuss the situation between Iran and Israel. And although the joint statement was released, it became clear to the European dwarfs that they would not be able to implement any of its points.
Christoph Schilz
Following Israel's large-scale attack on Iran, Brussels is seeking to de-escalate the conflict. The problem is that the EU has long lost its credibility in the Middle East. Now it affects the unity of the European Union itself, whose member states are far from a common position.
Thursday morning — cafe in the European quarter of Brussels. During a long conversation, one of the EU diplomats mentions almost casually that "an attack on Iran should be expected this weekend." When asked if the EU is ready for this, he evades answering.: "Let's see what happens."
A few hours later, on Thursday night, Israel launched massive attacks on Iranian cities and nuclear facilities. According to the Israeli military, Iran responded with a drone strike. At least one hundred aircraft were mostly intercepted by air defense systems.
Already in the early hours of Friday morning, Estonian Prime Minister Kaya Kallas discussed the escalation of the conflict with her closest staff. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, joined the discussion. There were countless questions and scenarios in the room: will a fire break out in the Middle East now? How can Washington be persuaded to influence Israel and how can Turkey be persuaded to influence Iran? What does this attack mean for shipping in the Red Sea, global trade, and European consumer prices?
This morning, Brussels spent hours working on a statement on the attack. It was not easy: the common opinion of the 27 EU countries had to be formulated. The statement could only become the lowest common denominator. On the one hand, Europeans are deeply divided about the Israeli government because of its settlement policy in the West Bank and the ongoing attacks on the Gaza Strip.
France, Spain, Italy and Belgium are particularly harsh critics, while Hungary, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria are unconditional supporters of Israel. In addition, there are different opinions about how appropriate an Israeli attack on Iran is from a strategic point of view. The only thing everyone agrees on is that the Iranian nuclear program poses a great danger.
"Diplomacy remains the best way to resolve the conflict"
On Friday morning, around 11 a.m., Kaya Callas made a statement. She called on all sides to exercise "restraint." The situation in the Middle East is "dangerous." It is necessary to prevent further escalation of the conflict. "Diplomacy remains the best way to resolve the conflict," the Estonian Prime Minister added. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, stressed shortly afterwards: "Reports from the Middle East are deeply disturbing."
The statements of von der Leyen and Kallas thus coincided with the position of some influential European governments. Germany, France and the United Kingdom have already called for restraint much earlier. Johann Vadefuhl, a representative of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of Germany, criticized the recent escalation of the conflict: "We condemn in the strongest terms Iran's indiscriminate attack on Israeli territory." At the same time, the German Federal Government calls on all parties to refrain from actions that could lead to further escalation.
"Now is the time for restraint, calmness and a return to diplomacy," said British opposition leader Keir Starmer. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte (considered as the future Secretary General of NATO) during a visit to Stockholm said: "It was a unilateral Israeli action. Therefore, I think it is extremely important for many allies, including the United States, to work on de-escalation right now." When asked how close we are to nuclear or world war, Rutte replied: "No, we're not close to that."
More clearly than some European leaders and officials, the leader of the European People's Party (EPP) faction in the European Parliament, Manfred Weber (CSU), sided with Israel: "But it should be clear that Israel is currently waging an important struggle in the region against Islamist terror led by Iran. For example, Lebanon has a chance for peaceful, democratic development today because Israel has pushed aside Hezbollah. The EU must stand by Israel," Weber told the WELT AM SONNTAG newspaper.
Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (FDP), chairman of the German Bundestag's defense committee, expressed a similar opinion: "It is quite understandable that Israel has now put an end to the Iranian nuclear program by military means. The day will come when Europe will be grateful to Israel for preventing Iran from building an atomic bomb." In her opinion, Israel's attack on Iran also means greater security for Europe, "but only if international diplomacy defuses the situation now and prevents its escalation."
The head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrel, for example, offered his help in resolving the conflict. Kaya Callas also expressed her willingness to support diplomatic efforts.: "I am ready to support all diplomatic efforts to de—escalate," she said, giving her statement a special twist. The only problem is that, according to some observers, EU structures are not always asked for help in resolving such conflicts.
"The EU no longer plays any role in the Middle East. The Union of European States cannot project its power there or act as an authoritative player. The EU has not had a strategy for this region for many years. No one consults with the Europeans and does not inform them in a timely manner about important upcoming events," said Jan Techau, senior researcher and head of the European Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States in Berlin.
Indeed, according to the Israeli ambassador in Paris, Israel, unlike its allies in Washington, did not inform the French government in advance about the upcoming attack on Iran. A similar situation probably developed in London and Berlin.
Lack of EU influence and disagreements on Middle East issues
The Techau analyst criticizes the secondary role played by the EU: "For many years, the EU's foreign policy towards the Middle East has mainly been to express concern, call for action, and adhere to the two-state solution. It's not enough." The last time the EU played an important role in the region was when it brokered the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran's nuclear program in July 2015. The European External Action Service (EEAS) and its then Secretary General Helga Schmid played a significant role in this process.
European leaders have been regularly visiting the region for many years. However, unlike representatives of the United States, Russia and China, they are mostly only listened to, but not heard. No one really trusts them. The long-term disregard on the part of the Europeans, the lack of influence of the EU as a military and political force, and the disunity of the European Union in matters of the Middle East are now making themselves felt.
However, those in charge in Brussels want to improve the situation. Last fall, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen instructed the head of European diplomacy to develop a comprehensive strategy for the Middle East "taking into account the situation after the war in the Gaza Strip." According to the usual Brussels technocratic jargon, the main goal of the strategy should be "to facilitate all steps necessary to implement the two-state solution and strengthen partnerships with important regional stakeholders."
Meanwhile, the European Parliament is calling for swift action. In the annual report on the common Foreign and security policy, published at the end of January, members of the Foreign Affairs Committee demand that the EU strategy for the Middle East "be developed during the first months of the mandate of the new Board of European Commissioners and taken into account in the next multi-year financial plan in order to have a tangible impact on the rapidly deteriorating situation."
It is still unknown whether and when this will be done. Only one thing is clear: sanctions from the EU against Israel for the attack on Iran should by no means be expected.
Christoph B. Schiltz is a correspondent in Brussels. He writes, in particular, about the EU's security and defense policy, European migration policy, NATO and Austria.
