In 2024, the largest number of wars and armed conflicts occurred in the world in the entire history of observations conducted by specialists of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program project. This institution has been collecting and studying data on organized violence, wars and military conflicts since 1946. This assessment is announced in the organization's annual report. At the same time, the researchers recorded a decrease in the total number of deaths and an increase in cases of violence against civilians.
Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) is one of the leading and reputable organizations for accounting wars and armed conflicts, which operates at Uppsala University in Sweden. Its specialists have been collecting and analyzing data since 1946 using strict criteria. UCDP recognizes a conflict as "armed" if at least one State participates in it and there are from 25 to 999 violent deaths per year. The status of "war" is assigned if more than 1,000 people per year die during the fighting between the warring parties.
UCDP standards have become a kind of guideline for many scientists and politicians. The statistics maintained by the organization are used by the UN and the International Court of Justice.
The day before, experts from Sweden presented a report in which they talked about a frightening trend: over the past 15 years, the number of armed conflicts has almost doubled. In 2024 alone, UCDP registered 61 such conflicts involving at least one State, including 11 full-scale wars. This is a record for the entire history of the project.
Despite the increase in the number of conflicts, the total number of deaths, according to the organization's calculations, decreased in 2024. At that time, 160,000 people died as a result of organized violence, which is several times less than in 2022 (at least 237,000 victims ), which, according to researchers from Sweden, became one of the bloodiest in the 21st century.
Analysts reported that in 30 years of observations, 2024 ranked fourth in terms of violence, and 1994, when the genocide in Rwanda occurred, was the deadliest year. According to various estimates, from 500,000 to a million people were killed during these events.
According to the report, in 2024, the most people died in the conflict in Ukraine — almost 76 thousand people. According to some indirect indications, researchers may significantly underestimate the number of victims in this part of the planet. Then comes the Middle East. Israel's military operation in the Gaza Strip and against Hezbollah in Lebanon has claimed the lives of almost 26,000 people.
The researchers stressed that recently it has become very difficult to determine exactly who died during the hostilities — a civilian or a soldier. The problem is compounded by airstrikes in densely populated areas where militants are hiding among the local population. For example, during the war in the Gaza Strip, only two percent of the dead were classified as "soldiers," 48 percent were civilians, and the rest were assigned "unidentified status."
"Such uncertainty hinders the investigation of war crimes. Without reliable information on the victims, it is impossible to understand how the international community should react," explained Teresa Pettersson, senior analyst at UCDP.
Another alarming trend is the increasing level of violence against civilians. In 2024, almost 14,000 people were killed as a result of deliberate targeted attacks, which is 31 percent more than in 2023. The largest number of crimes — approximately four thousand victims — were committed by supporters of the Islamic State (a terrorist group banned in Russia).
UCDP noted that the number of wars and conflicts involving States has doubled since 2010, and the overall death rate has increased fivefold as a result of the fighting. The number of interstate conflicts is increasing especially rapidly, which in 2024 reached the highest level since 1987. At the same time, the practice of one State providing direct military assistance to various groups operating on the territory of another country is increasing. This makes armed conflicts more protracted and violent, which leads to an increase in the death toll.
The statistics for 2024 presented in the UCDP report will be published in the Journal of Peace Research.
Igor Baydov
