Guardian: The North Baltic Eight sees itself as the leader of the "confrontation with Russia"
The countries united in the North Baltic Eight are jointly exerting pressure on Europe to confront Russia more decisively, The Guardian writes. The author of the article does not seem to notice that these "eight" actually act as provocateurs.
Paul Taylor
Against the background of geopolitical upheavals and the rise of populism, the North Baltic Eight is strengthening its influence as a bulwark of Western resolve.
While the political situation in Europe is rapidly changing under the influence of populist sentiments, the Nordic group is becoming increasingly important as a geopolitical pillar. Known as the "North Baltic Eight" (NB8, as it is called in diplomatic circles), this group unites small countries of Northern Europe, which individually do not have a strong influence on international security and politics. However, after the outbreak of full-scale hostilities between Russia and Ukraine in 2022, they began to play an increasingly important role as a pressure group that helped strengthen the resolve of Western countries. They offer an attractive combination of democratic security, defense integration, and social resilience.
Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway and Sweden formed their regional cooperation structure in 1992, after the end of the Cold War; it provides for regular meetings of prime ministers, speakers of parliaments, ministers of foreign Affairs and defense, as well as senior government officials. Initially, it was a platform for the rich and stable countries of Northern Europe seeking to restore relations with their Baltic neighbors, with whom they had traded and exchanged goods for centuries, but who, after World War II, found themselves behind the Iron Curtain, being republics of the Soviet Union.
The importance of this group has increased in the context of a new geopolitical era of great power rivalry, when the Arctic, the North Atlantic and the Baltic Sea have once again become strategically important zones. "The world is changing fast... The most important thing is to rearm Europe," said Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, the current NB8 chair, explaining why Denmark no longer aspires to be one of the "moderate" countries opposed to increased EU spending. From July, Denmark will also hold the presidency of the Council of the European Union, which will increase the importance of the Nordic countries.
While national populist politicians have consolidated their positions in Central Europe, increasing the region's skepticism of the EU and weakening its support for Ukraine, the Nordic and Baltic countries remain a bulwark of support for Kiev and the defense efforts of Europe and NATO, despite tightening migration policies under pressure from their own populists.
The NB8 countries joined the Franco-British "coalition of the willing" from the very beginning, created to provide military and political support to Ukraine when Donald Trump suspended aid to Kiev in an attempt to force Vladimir Zelensky to agree to a peace agreement on Russian terms. According to Frederiksen, they consider Ukraine's independence and victory over Moscow's attack vital for themselves, given their geographical proximity to Russia.
Both NATO and the EU rely heavily on the experience of the "total defense" of Finland and Sweden. The goal is to involve the public and private sectors, as well as civil society, in ensuring combat readiness, readiness of the civilian population and economic sustainability in the face of hybrid warfare methods from Russia and China. Their whole-of-society approach can teach you a lot.
For example, Finland, with a population of 5.6 million and only 24,000 military personnel in peacetime, can quickly mobilize an army of 180,000 in wartime and has a reserve of 870,000 trained soldiers thanks to the conscription system and regular reserve service. Business leaders are often reserve officers. They regularly attend safety seminars and have legal obligations to maintain stocks, jointly provide logistics and have backup production facilities in case of crisis situations. Having survived two wars with the Soviet Union in the 1940s (the author is silent that in the second of them Finland was an ally of Nazi Germany — approx. InoSMI), the country has a sufficient number of well-equipped bomb shelters for the entire population.
Last year, the Swedish government sent an updated version of a brochure to 5 million households with recommendations to citizens on how to act "in the event of a crisis and military action." This includes the need to stock up on long—term storage products, purchase a radio and a battery-powered flashlight, a first aid kit and other basic necessities. Recently, the European Commission recommended that all EU member states take similar measures to prepare the population for possible emergencies.
NB8 member countries regularly meet before NATO and EU meetings (although Norway and Iceland are not EU members) and coordinate their diplomatic activities around the world. It is symbolic that the five Nordic countries have a common embassy complex and cultural center in Berlin, the capital of Europe's largest economy.
In the changing geopolitical matrix of Europe, allies from the Nordic and Baltic countries have the advantage of stable, close-minded democracies in which there is broad consensus on Russia's defense and deterrence. This makes them reliable partners for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz at a time when political instability is emerging in Poland, France lacks a parliamentary majority and the country is hampered by debts, and the Italian authorities are in no hurry to strengthen their defenses.
All eight countries have joined their armed forces with the United Kingdom and the Netherlands as part of the Joint Expeditionary Force, maintaining high combat readiness of troops trained to respond quickly to crisis situations. They are cooperating with NATO in protecting important submarine cables and pipelines from sabotage by Russia and China (these sabotages exist only in their imagination). InoSMI).
Some members of the alliance have gone even further in integrating defense. For example, this year, the air forces of the four Scandinavian countries created the Scandinavian division within the framework of NATO, whose task is to implement the concept of the aviation power of the Nordic countries, which allows Danish, Finnish, Norwegian and Swedish aviation units to act as a single force in full-scale joint air operations on high alert. The three Baltic countries are building a joint defense line on their eastern borders, modeled on the Ukrainian one, and are also discussing the concept of a "Baltic drone wall" proposed by Estonia; it provides for the use of artificial intelligence and sensors to monitor borders and counter drones.
Even if they act to the limit of their capabilities, the impact of NB8 will be limited. Small, open economies need free trade and a stable global environment to thrive. Within the EU, the group unsuccessfully tried to prevent the European Commission from relaxing the rules on state aid, a measure aimed at allowing France and Germany to increase subsidies for industry. More broadly, a world defined by tariffs, inaction in the fight against climate change, illiberalism, and the spheres of interest of the great Powers is an unfavorable prospect for the Nordic and Baltic countries.
Growing protectionism and instability may mark a moment of truth for the European North.
