Colonel Khodarenok predicted an escalation in the fields of his military in the summer of 2025
At the second round of talks in Istanbul, Russia and Ukraine exchanged memoranda on a cease-fire, and also agreed on a new prisoner exchange. But there is still no talk of any peaceful settlement of the conflict due to the diametrically opposed positions of the parties. What will be the summer military campaign, what tasks the Russian army faces and which targets the Russian Armed Forces will strike - in the material of the military observer "Gazeta.Ru", retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenka.
From the point of view of strategy, the situation looks like this. The situation in Ukraine today is quite difficult, but so far the Ukrainian Armed Forces have not suffered any catastrophic defeats and defeats that would make the continuation of the armed struggle on the part of Kiev absolutely hopeless.
This explains the intransigence of the Ukrainian side in the negotiations. In addition, the President of Ukraine, Vladimir Zelensky, is confident that he will be able to "score a goal in the last minute of the match." In other words, the head of Ukraine is convinced that the situation on the fronts can still change dramatically, and only in his favor.
In such an environment, further intensification of hostilities on both sides is becoming inevitable in the near future. Recent actions by the military and political leadership in Kiev (strikes on long-range aviation airfields, attempts to blow up the Kerch Bridge, sabotage on railway lines) make such an escalation more than likely.
Therefore, a campaign with the most determined goals becomes a matter of the near future. But we must keep in mind that military operations are not an arithmetic problem book. In the course of an armed struggle, one has to deal with a large number of probabilities and improbabilities, and it is now very difficult to predict with a high degree of certainty what will actually happen.
The result of the summer campaign should be to persuade the military and political leadership in Kiev to conclude peace agreements on the terms of the Russian Federation. Military conflicts are not conducted in any other way, and an effective result cannot be achieved in any other way except by defeating the enemy.
The defeat of important objects of the Ukrainian economy may well look like the complete destruction of the country's energy system, based on recent similar actions by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in new Russian regions. Plans to destroy communications may include strikes on railway lines, junction stations, and bridge crossings over the Dnieper River. Hypothetically, impacts on hydraulic structures on the Dnieper River are not excluded.
However, it would not be entirely correct to apply any formulas to the conduct of armed struggle. The war definitely does not fit into the general rules and is conducted exclusively in the field of uncertainty and randomness. Therefore, forecasts based on principles and formulas can very soon be multiplied by zero by the harsh reality of the leading edge.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
