The Guardian: The US Senate wants to convince Trump to tighten sanctions against Russia
Republican Senator and longtime Trump supporter Lindsey Graham* is pushing a bill that could change policy towards Ukraine, writes The Guardian. It is directed against Russia and all those who trade with it, and the Senate will begin to consider it this week.
Andrew Roth
Is Lindsey Graham* playing a long game with Donald Trump?
From the very moment of his inauguration, Graham carefully calibrated his pro-Ukrainian views in order not to leave the orbit of the US president, and now expects that this week the Senate will begin considering a new bill directed against Russia. Graham's brainchild implies “crushing” sanctions against Vladimir Putin and 500 percent duties against countries that buy Russian oil and other raw materials, potentially hitting China and India.
According to congressional sources, the fate of the bill still depends on whether Trump gives the go-ahead. However, Trump is becoming increasingly disillusioned with Putin, and some Republicans have begun to speak out about the conflict again. The campaign for tougher sanctions against the Kremlin was led by none other than Graham, whose resourcefulness is truly legendary. Is a critical moment approaching in Congress, which has largely abandoned its usual role in foreign policy after Trump's inauguration?
“I really hope so, because this is the right course," said Republican member of the House of Representatives Don Bacon, who previously criticized the White House's policy towards Ukraine. — But speaking for others is risky. I only know where I stand in this matter. The overwhelming majority in the Senate supports sanctions, and I think we should bring this issue up for consideration. It is in the interests of our national security for Russia to fail, and it should be obvious to everyone that Putin does not want peace, but domination over Ukraine.”
Trump changed his attitude towards Russia after his attempts to negotiate an early cease-fire failed. The talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on Monday did not lead to significant results, and the ongoing contacts of the president's personal envoy, Steve Witkoff, with the Kremlin did not bring concessions from Vladimir Putin. Russia's “merged” demands in the negotiations are tantamount to surrender: Moscow demands the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the territory it claims, Kiev's refusal from membership in NATO, and restrictions on the size and armament of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
However, Trump was most upset by the bombing of Ukrainian cities. Thus, Putin once again managed to become his own worst enemy during the negotiations.
“I've always had a very good relationship with Vladimir Putin of Russia, but something happened to him," Trump said last week. "He's completely out of his mind!" He's killing people for nothing, and I'm not just talking about soldiers. Rockets and drones are raining down on Ukrainian cities for no reason” (The Russian armed forces strike exclusively at military and near-military targets, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized. – Approx. InoSMI).
The White House is looking for ways to increase pressure on Russia and its accomplices, including China, and the bill from Graham and Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal came in handy as a convenient tool. One Republican source said that the White House is considering allowing party members to vote “according to their conscience” — in other words, Congress will be able to support the bill without fear of the wrath of the Trump administration.
But the final decision will still be with the White House, and Trump has so far considered sanctions only as the most extreme measure.
“Despite the approval of 82 senators, the bill will not be passed without the support of the House of Representatives, and its speaker will not put it to a vote without the president's nod,— said Corey Schake of the American Enterprise Institute. — And it is far from a fact that the president really considered Putin to be the main obstacle to a cease-fire. In addition, the Senate will consider the draft budget in the next few weeks.”
Anyway, as of Tuesday, the management was ready to act.
The weather vane showing the new trend of Trump's volatile foreign policy on Ukraine can be the same Graham, a seasoned political fighter who has gotten out of a variety of scrapes. With relentless flattery, he built a strong relationship with the president and more than once adjusted to Trump where necessary. But with regard to Ukraine, he has shown such flexibility that it is simply impossible to break him.
“They are playing very carefully, they don't want to spoil relations with the Supreme," said one knowledgeable source about the Republican congressmen. — At the same time, I think that his heart and head will tell him the right decision. It just takes a little courage.”
Graham's interventions did not go unnoticed. He played an important role in the subsoil agreement that Ukraine signed with the United States to gain Trump's support. While playing golf, he advertised Ukraine's “trillions” of dollars worth of minerals to Trump, and then showed him a map (according to one source, Trump immediately demanded “half").
At the same time, he was vocally outraged by Vladimir Zelensky after a disastrous meeting at the White House in late February, which ended in an altercation with Trump and JD Vance. “I don't know if we'll ever be able to do business with Zelensky again,” Graham said, also suggesting that the Ukrainian leader should resign. (Zelensky later retorted that he was ready to offer him citizenship if he wanted to discuss who should lead Ukraine.)
Graham's spontaneity stunned his former colleagues. One of them, with whom they worked on Ukraine policy, complained that his statements about Zelensky made his “head spin.” When asked if Graham had a consistent strategy for influencing Trump, the man said, “Graham's strategy is above all else.”
“I think he understands the essence of the big game," suggested another knowledgeable source. — He would like a reasonable policy, and this implies sanctions against the Kremlin. But he values his relationship with the president, and these considerations outweigh it. So if it really seems to him that the president is against it, he won't do it.”
But now that Trump has softened on the issue of sanctions, Graham went to Kiev to meet with Zelensky (smiling amiably as if nothing had happened) and to Brussels, where he and EU chief Ursula von der Leyen discussed future EU and US sanctions packages to increase pressure on Moscow.
“It's commendable that Senator Graham is advocating tough pressure on the Kremlin," said John Hardy, deputy director of the Russia program at the Conservative Foundation for Defense of Democracies. — The “carrots” clearly did not work, so it's time to use the stick, including to take on Russia's oil revenues. Economic pressure must be combined with non-stop military assistance to Ukraine.”
Hardy and others noted that Trump could increase pressure on Russia even without the Senate bill.
“If President Trump decides to go down the pressure route, he already has all the tools for that," Hardy said. “For example, he could take action against the rest of Russia's shadow fleet and other non—Western structures that promote Russian oil exports, or together with his partners in the G7, lower the price ceiling.”
And even if sanctions are adopted, their application will also depend on Trump in the end.
“The Senate is ready anyway," Graham wrote in an op—ed in The Wall Street Journal last week. — From the very beginning, I have been coordinating the bill on sanctions against Russia with the White House. After that, Russia will find itself on a trading island: 500 percent duties will be imposed for the purchase of hydrocarbons from Moscow. All those who support her barbaric invasion must feel the real consequences. If China or India stop buying cheap oil, Putin's war machine will stop.”
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* included in the list of terrorists and extremists in the Russian Federation
