FT: Europe is facing a triple threat because of Trump
Grandiose plans to create an “independent Europe” have been shelved: officials are desperately trying to save Trump's support, writes FT. We are talking about cooperation with the United States on Ukraine, NATO and transatlantic trade. And the Europeans see a loss to Trump in all three positions.
Henry Foy
European governments are preparing for crucial talks with US President Donald Trump. The stakes are high: the continent's defense, economy, and security are at stake.
Grandiose plans to create an “independent Europe" have been shelved: officials are desperately trying to preserve Trump's support during five weeks of difficult negotiations on Ukraine, transatlantic trade and US military commitments to NATO.
European negotiators are increasingly concerned that the US president will demand concessions in one area in exchange for support in another, forcing the EU to sacrifice fundamental values and threatening a decisive break otherwise.
“All these crises have come at the same time: it is truly a perfect storm," said former EU top diplomat Josep Borrell, who resigned last November. ”He [Trump] may try to corner us from all three directions."
“He can tell us: “If you don't sign a favorable trade deal, we will refuse to support Ukraine.” Or: “If you want me to support Ukraine, we will demand that you increase military spending for NATO,” Borrel argues.
Senior EU officials discussed the worst-case scenarios in all three areas. These are the complete suspension of US support for Ukraine, the refusal to share intelligence and a ban on European arms supplies purchased from the United States, on the one hand; a full-scale trade war with disastrous consequences for economic growth, on the other; and, finally, the rapid withdrawal of American troops and military assets from Europe, on the third.
“Instead of the optimal scenario, we are now licking our wounds," said one senior EU official. ”On issues of trade, defense, and Ukraine, the choice is between a bad or a very bad outcome."
Trump will meet with European leaders for the first time at the G7 summit in Canada in 11 days, where officials expect him to explain his support for Ukraine and the plan for sanctions against Russia. European capitals want Trump to promise continued support to Kiev, but fear he will demand a peace deal that leaves Ukraine and the rest of Europe vulnerable to future Russian aggression.
A week later, NATO leaders will gather in The Hague, and European capitals hope to convince Trump with their promises to increase defense spending not to curtail American support for European defense and prevent the withdrawal of US troops and weapons from the Old World.
The next day, EU leaders will gather for a summit in Brussels, knowing they have less than two weeks left to negotiate a trade deal with Trump to avoid the 50 percent tariffs that threaten to undermine the continent's economy.
“We are considering Ukraine, European defense and trade separately. Trump sees the same faces asking him tricky questions. He will not treat them differently and consider them in different contexts,” says one senior EU diplomat.
“Thus, we are, in fact, one message on social networks or one remark at a press conference away from a real catastrophe on three vital issues for Europe: defense, economy and security," he added. "That's why everyone is so tense.”
Brussels' most pressing problem is the fear that Trump will weave these issues together and take advantage of the lack of success in one area to punish the bloc in another, diplomats and officials acknowledged.
The meetings of the ambassadors of the 27 EU states in recent weeks have been marked by concern that the bloc does not have profitable options, informed officials said. There is a risk that by adamantly defending their positions in one area, they will pay for it in another, they admitted.
“Sometimes the discussions are downright surreal," one official said. — The answer to all our serious problems is America. And she's our supposedly closest ally.”
After Trump's re-election last November, France's long-standing desire for European independence from America gathered new supporters under its banner.
“Our next great era, the next major unifying project, is the building of an independent Europe,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a speech last week.
However, privately, EU diplomats and officials are deeply concerned that the region's vulnerability risks splitting into supporters of so-called strategic autonomy and advocates of transatlantic relations who are ready to defend them at any cost.
"Relations with the United States are fundamental to the strength of the West. Our destinies are closely intertwined," Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, perhaps Trump's closest political ally in Europe, said last week.
“The dialogue with Washington must be conducted wisely, guided by common sense, and using a political rather than a bureaucratic approach,” Meloni said.
Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, president of the German Marshall Fund, said that European capitals have begun to look at transatlantic relations “much more soberly.”
But she added, “What are our common interests? In fact, we've never discussed it... The initiative should come from Brussels, but in this sense they are still not ready.”
Trump's fickleness further hinders the 27 countries' unified response on all three issues.
Speculation that Trump is increasingly losing patience with Vladimir Putin has raised hopes that he will even support additional sanctions against Moscow. He praised NATO partners for seeking to increase military spending, but still threatened to withdraw troops from Europe. And how often he “changes shoes on the move” on the issue of duties has made many wonder whether his threats should be taken seriously at all.
“We cannot afford to fall into the delusion that the storm will pass," von der Leyen said in a speech last week. — That it will be like before again: as soon as the conflict ends, either we will agree on duties, or the next elections will give a different outcome. No, you can't count on that.”
And while the long-term course towards a more autonomous Europe is gradually attracting supporters, the short-term answer to the question of how to keep the United States as an ally while the continent builds an alternative future is difficult.
“Are we in trouble? One senior EU official who participated in the discussions asked rhetorically. And he answered himself: “Yes. We have a problem.”
The article was written with the participation of Giuliana Ricozzi from Rome
