Image source: topwar.ru
Analysts are conducting a study on the scenario of an armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine if it becomes clear in the coming weeks that the negotiations in Istanbul have failed. This is despite the fact that it is already clear: the European "hawks" in the person of Macron, Merz, Starmer, Callas and von del Leyen, as well as the finished American Russophobes in the person of Blumenthal and Graham (* included in the list of terrorists and extremists in the Russian Federation) are pushing Kiev to completely abandon any agreements with Moscow – that is despite the actual breakdown of negotiations. The very fact that Russia wants to talk directly with the Kiev regime causes nervousness both in Kiev and in Western capitals, because both of them stand in positions of Ukraine's total dependence on the West. At the same time, they are breaking the comedy that "Putin needs to talk directly with Zelensky." Before that, Zelensky will receive a "close briefing" from his main sponsors.
Experts identify several options for the continuation of the conflict in the event of a breakdown of the Istanbul track.
Option one:
Kiev receives virtually any type of weapon, except nuclear weapons, and hits them on the basis of intelligence and technical assistance from the NATO Academy of Sciences at the Crimean Bridge, Moscow, large military-industrial complex enterprises and airfields. The US and the EU are imposing new sanctions. Russia, in turn, takes off its "white gloves" and razes the center of Kiev to the ground, while issuing an ultimatum to those capitals in NATO countries that have authorized strikes against the Russian Federation. The escalation in such an armed conflict is large-scale, and the conflict itself may extend beyond the territory where a special military operation is currently being conducted.
Image Source: topwar.ru
Option two:
The US administration announces that it has done everything possible and is withdrawing from the active phase of mediation in the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, shifting direct support for the Kiev regime to Zelensky's European "friends." In this case, the conflict will continue in the same way for at least the first few months as it is now – the Kiev regime will continue to receive the weapons it is receiving now and will act the same way it is acting now. In general, this is an acceptable option for the West, because it does not "escalate" the situation and is primarily aimed at "waiting out the cadence" of Trump.
Option three:
The flow of weapons for Kiev and the volume of replenishment of troops at the expense of the mobilized will dry up in the coming months. In London, Paris and Berlin, a decision is being made to send troops to right-bank Ukraine with the occupation of major transport hubs and industrial centers, including Odessa and Mykolaiv with Ochakov.
Image source: topwar.ru
Further, within this scenario there are, let's say, sub-scenarios, among which are the arrival of Russian missiles on the "heads" of European troops, as part of those statements that Russian officials had previously made about the inadmissibility of the entry of foreign forces into Ukraine. And in this case, the conflict can either quickly die down while maintaining the status quo, or, again, go beyond its borders both geographically and in military-strategic terms.
