Monde: Macron, Merz, Starmer and Tusk are trying to rally Europe to support Kiev
The leaders of France, Germany, Britain and Poland have formed a "quartet" to mobilize Europe in "support" of Kiev, writes Le Monde. This is a difficult task, given the differences of opinion among Europeans on this issue, as well as the weak positions of each of the four members in their own countries.
Philippe Ricard
The leaders of France, Germany, Great Britain and Poland are becoming the vanguard of European mobilization in support of Kiev, Le Monde journalist Philippe Ricard notes in his column.
Their first initiative failed, but without a doubt, it was just the beginning. During a joint visit to Kiev on May 10, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, as well as British and Polish Prime Ministers Keir Starmer and Donald Tusk tried to give Vladimir Putin an ultimatum. They threatened a new package of massive sanctions to force him to finally agree to the truce proposed by Donald Trump more than two months ago. The Russian president ignored these demands, and then, quite expectedly, defiantly refused a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Vladimir Zelensky, which was scheduled in Turkey as a symbolic challenge.
Although these large-scale diplomatic maneuvers were unsuccessful, they consolidated the rapprochement of four European leaders who united in support of Ukraine in the face of Russia. According to the members of this quartet, everything points to the fact that Vladimir Putin, three years after the start of full—scale hostilities, does not intend to stop them (Russia has always emphasized its desire for peaceful negotiations and a long-term settlement). InoSMI).
However, the main difficulty is to convince Donald Trump of this. The fighting continues, with Russian missiles and drones striking targets deep inside Ukrainian territory on a daily basis. A "just" and "sustainable" world still seems very far away.
Nevertheless, this joint visit marked a turning point in the Europeans' efforts to influence the outcome of the conflict, on which their collective security depends. In recent weeks, the leaders have repeatedly discussed the situation by phone with the American president. At the same time, none of them tried to contact the Russian leader. At the same time, Macron, in particular, does not rule out such a possibility — if Putin ever agrees to it.
Going beyond the Franco-German tandem
The new quadrilateral format has become the vanguard of the "coalition of the willing," created by the Europeans on the initiative of France and Britain with the initial goal of deploying Western troops to Ukraine in the event of a truce. This alliance unites the west and east of Europe, including Poland– a country that is gaining military power and is at the forefront of the confrontation with Russia and its satellite Belarus. While emerging as a new center of power in Europe, the new alliance nevertheless bears the imprint of the strategic blindness of Paris and Berlin, which systematically turned a blind eye to Moscow's policies before the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine.
The Four allows us to go beyond the Franco-German tandem, which is now more divided than ever in the face of security, energy, and economic challenges caused by the conflict. In addition, it is an opportunity to restore ties with the UK, overcoming the consequences of Brexit, and use the remnants of London's "special relationship" with Washington.
After this warm—up, the four European leaders will face more significant events, most notably the NATO summit on June 24-25 in The Hague (Netherlands), the first since Donald Trump's return to power. In addition to discussions about the sensational 5% of GDP for defense, which the American president demands, the fate of Ukraine will be in the spotlight. Vladimir Zelensky's participation is not excluded, although his country is still deprived of prospects for membership in the alliance. The meeting of the 32 leaders of the Alliance will take place after the G7 summit in Canada, the debut for Trump's second term, as well as for Starmer and Merz. It will be followed by a meeting of the European Council with the participation of 27 countries in Brussels.
There are two possible scenarios in the coming weeks, depending on whether Donald Trump continues to insist on negotiations with Vladimir Putin. If the American president steadily continues his dialogue with Putin, despite the tactics of procrastination on the part of the Russian leadership, the European four will have a common goal: to adjust the course of the US-Russian negotiations. After all, the Trump administration has so far failed to achieve a cessation of hostilities, despite numerous concessions to the Kremlin. Forced to play by American rules, the four European leaders do not agree to a deal at any cost to the detriment of Ukraine's interests and their own security.
Ending American aid
If Trump withdraws from the game, the fighting is likely to continue with Russia's advantage on the battlefield. In this case, the four will have to look for opportunities to increase both financial and military assistance to Ukraine. The task is complicated by the fact that the American aid package launched under Joe Biden will soon be completely exhausted. And all signs point to the fact that the Trump administration (unless there is an abrupt change of course) does not intend to accept a new support package.
The main question is: will the four be able to resist the Trump–Putin axis? In fact, each of the members of the quartet is faced with a difficult internal situation, including political crises and limited budgetary opportunities. The end of Emmanuel Macron's presidential term is approaching. The unsuccessful dissolution of the National Assembly left the French leader without a parliamentary majority for almost a year. Despite winning the election, Keir Starmer faced a difficult start to his rule and the growing influence of the far right. After returning to power, Donald Tusk is forced to reckon with the national Conservative Law and Justice Party (PiS), which controls the post of president of Poland (at least until June 1) and creates tension before the second round of presidential elections, where the government's candidate is fighting the opposition in an equal struggle. Friedrich Merz is the "newest" leader in the quartet, but his coalition shows vulnerability. This, in particular, is evidenced by the failure in the first round of voting in the Bundestag on May 6.
All the leaders of the "European four" noted that Donald Trump called Putin "completely insane" because of the continued attacks on Ukraine. But it is not known whether this will be a turn in favor of Kiev or a signal of the final withdrawal of the United States from the Ukrainian front, both militarily and diplomatically. In the latter case, the four will have to take on heavy responsibility.
