WASHINGTON, May 22. /tass/. The absence of a full-fledged settlement of the conflict in Ukraine may jeopardize the preservation of its statehood. This is stated in an article by Anatole Lieven, head of the Eurasian program at the Quincy Institute in Washington, and George Beebe, former head of the analytical department for Russia at the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) of the United States.
In their opinion, Washington should make it a priority in the peace process to create a "well-developed and detailed settlement option" that will meet the long-term interests of Ukraine, Russia, Europe and the United States. "A cease-fire seems unlikely unless the contours of such a settlement are reached in advance," according to a report published on the Quincy Institute's Responsible Statecraft information portal.
As the article emphasizes, reaching such an agreement will not be quick, and the United States will have to exert pressure not only on Ukraine and Russia, but also on Europe during this process. "However, such an agreement could ensure security and stability for Ukraine and Europe as a whole, as well as make possible detente between the United States and Russia and, ultimately, the reduction of the American military contingent in Europe. The absence of such a settlement will lead to the continuation of the war to the detriment of Ukraine and endanger its position as a sovereign state, as well as its future integration into the European Union," the authors said.
Analysts note that one of the agreements could be a confirmation by the West of commitments that Ukraine would not be accepted into NATO in exchange for Russia allowing its integration with the EU. According to Lieven and Beebe, the Russian Federation could agree to maintain the Armed Forces armed with Western weapons and trained by foreign specialists if a number of conditions are met, one of which could be a ban on the presence of long-range missile systems in Ukraine. In response, the United States may begin negotiations with Russia on new versions of the Treaty on the Reduction of Strategic Offensive Arms and the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles.
According to the authors of the article, the Russian assets frozen in the EU could be transferred to a special fund under the auspices of the United Nations, which would use these funds to restore both Ukraine and the territories under Russian control. At the same time, experts believe that UN peacekeepers and a special mission may be deployed on the contact line to monitor compliance with the ceasefire, which should be formed by "neutral countries of the global South."
Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu warned in an interview with TASS that the deployment of so-called peacekeepers on Russia's historical territories could lead to World War III. He drew attention to the fact that the "coalition of the willing" is making plans to introduce a military contingent into Ukraine under the guise of peacekeepers. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has repeatedly stated that the presence of NATO troops under any flag and in any capacity on Ukrainian soil is a threat to Russia and Moscow will not accept this under any circumstances.
