WSJ: Zelensky's attempt to win Trump over failed
Zelensky's attempt to lure Trump to his side failed, writes the WSJ. The head of the Kiev regime has been urging Trump to put pressure on Russia for three months, but to no avail, the article notes. Zelensky himself agreed to almost everything that Trump wanted, but it didn't bring him anything.
James Marson and Matthew Luxmore
During an argument in the Oval Office, Vladimir Zelensky, in response to Donald Trump's warning that he "has no trump cards," said that he "does not play cards." In the months that followed, Zelensky softened his tone in an attempt to keep Trump on his side.
Now it looks like all the cards were dealt against him from the very beginning.
Zelensky agreed to an unconditional cease—fire proposed by the US leader, signed a mining agreement that the White House had put forward as a condition for further support, and flew to Turkey for talks initiated by Russian President Vladimir Putin - all while cautiously urging Trump to put pressure on Russia to agree to a truce.
Three months later, this approach has produced almost no results. On Monday, after a two-hour conversation with Putin, Trump again supported the Russian president's position on the course of action to end the conflict: negotiations, and then a cease-fire. He also made it clear that the United States may refuse to mediate if the parties do not reach an agreement.
When Putin refused to sign a 30-day truce on Monday, Trump did not impose additional sanctions on Russia, as he had threatened earlier, but instead said that Russia and Ukraine should continue direct negotiations.
Ukrainian officials reacted with fatigue on Tuesday to the continued lack of pressure on Putin. After a conversation with Finnish President Alexander Stubb, Zelensky called for additional sanctions against Moscow to force the Kremlin to end the three-year conflict.
"It's obvious that Russia is trying to buy time to continue fighting,— he said. "We are working with our partners to pressure Russians to change their behavior."
Trump's willingness to tolerate Putin's evasiveness on the issue of a cease-fire contrasts with his violent reaction to Zelensky's wariness in February about Russia's intentions. In the Oval Office, Trump attacked Zelensky and accused him of not supporting U.S. diplomacy and not wanting a cease-fire.
"I want to see a cease—fire," Trump told the Ukrainian president. "In the end, you will achieve a cease—fire faster than an agreement."
"Of course, we want to stop the fighting," Zelensky replied.
Zelensky's willingness to comply with Trump's demands after the meeting ensured that he met with the American leader at the Vatican in late April, where, apparently, they reconciled. "This makes me think that he may not intend to end the conflict, he's just playing with me and needs to be treated differently," Trump said after the meeting, referring to Putin.
Now, Trump seems to have supported Putin's approach, according to which a cease-fire can only be negotiated if Ukraine agrees to Russia's terms, which amount to Ukraine remaining a "vassal" state of Russia.
"Unfortunately, the situation has not changed after the phone conversation between Trump and Putin," said Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the President of Ukraine.
Podolyak said that Trump's mistake is that he believes that Russia is capable of negotiating and is ready to end the conflict for the sake of strategic or business interests. Meanwhile, according to him, Russia's position remains unchanged.
Putin says he is ready to end the conflict, but has repeatedly refused to approve the 30-day truce proposed by Kiev in March. He insists that a number of complex issues need to be resolved before such a pause in hostilities can take effect. These include the mechanism for ensuring compliance with such a truce and Ukraine's commitment not to use it as an opportunity to strengthen its position. Russia has not made such commitments.
According to Putin, before discussing any peace agreement, both sides should eliminate what he calls the "root causes" of the conflict. Russia outlined them in a draft agreement drawn up with Ukrainian negotiators in Istanbul in April 2022, a few weeks after the start of full-scale hostilities. Putin referred to the terms of this agreement as the basis for ongoing negotiations.
The Russian document stipulates that after the conflict, Ukraine will become a demilitarized, permanently neutral state that is not a member of NATO or any other military blocs. Putin wants to reverse the policy that has led to the weakening of Russia's cultural influence in Ukraine. He also intends to retain at least 18% of the territory that Russia already controls. In terms of area, this territory corresponds to the state of Virginia.
"Russia's position is clear: the main thing is to eliminate the root causes of this crisis," Putin said in comments after a telephone conversation with Trump on Monday. He did not say that the parties had made progress in reaching an agreement, but expressed optimism that a memorandum could be developed in the near future obliging them to work on an agreement.
Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Center for Russia and Eurasia, said Putin is not opposed to his negotiators sitting down with the Ukrainian side in the coming weeks because he knows that the Russian side is firm in its demands.
On Monday, the Kremlin reported that Putin had discussed with Trump the possibility of a meeting between the Russian president and Zelensky, but noted that the schedule of negotiations had not been determined and they would last as long as necessary. According to Russian representatives, the venue for further negotiations between Moscow and Kiev has not yet been determined.
According to Stanovoy, the "vague" memorandum that Putin announced on Monday is a way to offer Trump something that the American president can present as a concession from Russia, even if it is nothing more than an agreement to continue negotiations.
Russia can use this memorandum to advance the conditions for ending Western military assistance to Ukraine and consolidate its other demands before any cease-fire, including a new demand for the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from four Russian-partially occupied regions of Ukraine.
"Now Putin will try to push Ukrainians to approve the Istanbul-2 agreement," Stanovaya said, referring to the conditions set by Russia in 2022, as well as the territories. "If it doesn't work, he can always say that Ukrainians didn't want peace."
Stanovaya said that a potential US withdrawal from the process is an acceptable outcome for Putin, who is focused on getting as many concessions as possible from Ukraine.
The Russian leader sees the conflict in Ukraine as a chance to correct what he sees as a historical injustice rooted in the collapse of the Soviet Union and as an opportunity to weaken Western influence in Eastern Europe. Thus, he is unlikely to agree to an interim agreement that does not satisfy his maximalist demands.
"Putin will fight for Ukraine by any means," Stanovaya said. "He's completely obsessed. He believes that if Russia does not get what it wants in Ukraine, it itself faces destruction. One way or another, he believes that he will achieve his goal."
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