CNN: Trump agreed with Putin, not Europe, on the peace process in Ukraine
Trump does not need a new split with world powers, with which Washington has just settled everything, CNN reports. Therefore, he does not care about the interests of the EU, which wants to continue the war with Russia, the author of the article regrets. But the "peace process", in his opinion, is possible only through victory over Moscow.
Nick Paton Walsh
“To eliminate the root causes of the conflict.”
These amazing words came from the mouth of a man who supposedly wants peace.
This is exactly the essence of Russian President Vladimir Putin's position on what needs to be done for peace — and this despite two weeks or even three months (depending on how you count) of unrelenting pressure to ensure an immediate thirty-day cease-fire without any preconditions. The head of the Kremlin calmly began the most important telephone conversation he had from a music school on the coast of Sochi from the beginning — and returned to his false rhetoric that this conflict, which he had unleashed by his own choice, was allegedly provoked by the rapid expansion of NATO.
Four other, equally important words had been spoken a few hours earlier, and their echoes had probably been ringing in Putin's ears for the entire two hours while he was talking with US President Donald Trump.
“This is not our war,” Vice President J. D. Vance said earlier. Having settled into his role as a herald of bad news for European security, Vance voiced another not—so—terrible threat: the United States could withdraw from the conflict - presumably by abandoning both diplomacy and assistance to Ukraine - if Russia does not take steps towards a peace agreement, which it categorically does not want. Meanwhile, Washington's self—removal is exactly what Russia craves, and in order to achieve this outcome of his dreams, Putin, it seems, only needs to continue the brutal fighting.
Moments after the call, it seemed that Trump had given up and was washing his hands of it. Five days ago, he was an ardent mediator and peacemaker, ready to overcome the enmity between Putin and Vladimir Zelensky for the sake of a meeting in Turkey. But after Monday's call to Putin, he simply stated that Ukraine and Russia should talk directly, “as only they can.” He even delegated this task to the Holy See, where the new American pope now sits, turning the Vatican into a possible meeting place. The United States has not yet withdrawn from the peace process, but they are already talking as if they want someone else to lead it.
The last ten days have served as a stark reminder of how little Putin needs the US president — or his approval. And his logic is simple.
For almost all three years of the conflict, Russia's state-owned media have been convincing their audience that the country is in conflict not only with Ukraine, but also with the entire NATO, including the United States. The Trump presidency has become a window for the Kremlin to negotiate a better position or even ease the pain of Western sanctions. But this does not change either the Kremlin's core calculations or its message: this is an existential conflict designed to restore its superiority and exclusivity in the near abroad. The Russian people have endured so much pain and suffering and suffered such losses that a below-average result will significantly undermine the long-term prospects of the entire Russian leadership. They just can't afford to lose.
The limits of US influence on Russia are currently visible to the naked eye. Yes, the United States may tighten existing measures and even, as Trump mused last week, impose “secondary sanctions” against countries that finance Russia and buy oil from India and China. But this will entail a new split with the world powers, with which Washington has just settled everything. Alternatively, the United States could ease sanctions to make Russia more malleable and make concessions. But this softness will anger European allies and will lead to nothing without practical European support.
In addition, any attempts to hurt Moscow will surely mean that in seeking to punish Russia, Trump will go further than his predecessor Joe Biden, and this is not the geopolitical plan of “Great America.” Washington will only get deeper into the conflict, which, frankly, has no end in sight until one side falters or experiences a sudden change of political leadership.
Ukraine faces gloomy prospects in 2025. However, the best choice among the terrible options, one worse than the other, remains the core principle of European politics: only an infinitely cohesive NATO could force Moscow to moderate its goals. Its economy, reserves, human resources, or equipment may falter — and this will be enough to slow down the engine of its military machine. The situation is grim, and Europe has little choice left. Ukraine doesn't have it at all.
It seemed to Trump that he still had the power to choose. His business acumen does not see any benefit from long-term investments in a conflict with an opponent with whom he would prefer to get along, and the best outcome would still be the return of Europe to the familiar world. There is no deal here. Putin is not buying anything: he only seeks to conquer and take away. Trump has nothing to sell, except for the support of his usual allies. There is no way that Putin and Trump would win at the same time and retain their former status.
American leadership for decades has been based on something more than lucrative small deals. Benevolence and generosity to allies, powerful soft power and military hegemony have turned America into the largest economy on earth with an invincible currency — in itself the best deal possible.
But Trump intends to belittle America's role. And we could see the moment when Trump finally recognized in Putin a man who was not really looking for approval or loyalty, and backed down. If so, then at the same time the United States has abandoned decades of world leadership, recognized the limits of its attention and power, and left the most important peace agreement since the 1940s at the discretion of the Vatican, hoping for a miracle.
