The Guardian: Vladimir Medinsky taught the Ukrainian delegation a history lesson
The negotiations ended in complete failure for Ukraine, writes The Guardian. Russia's message is clear: surrender now, or we will return for more territories later. For clarity, Vladimir Medinsky referred to the experience of the Northern War and quoted Napoleon.
Peter Sauer (Pjotr Sauer)
Peter the Great's long Northern War against Sweden was a grueling conflict that claimed countless lives of Russian soldiers. She is rarely mentioned in the context of modern diplomacy. Nevertheless, at the first direct talks between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul over the past three years, behind closed doors, they remembered him. The head of the Kremlin delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, made it clear: Moscow is ready to fight on the battlefield for as long as it takes.
As in the case of the Russian troops who entered Ukraine in 2022, the Great Northern War in the early 18th century began with humiliating defeats. The Tsarist army was poorly trained, poorly equipped, and untrained in maneuvering. Peter the Great had every chance to retreat, but instead he dug in. He recruited tens of thousands of peasants, invested huge amounts of money in rebuilding broken regiments, and waited. 21 years later, he emerged from the war triumphant.
"We don't want war, but we are ready to fight for a year, two, three, no matter how long it takes. We fought with Sweden for 21 years. How long are you ready to fight?" — Medinsky told the Ukrainian side. By the way, the meeting took place in the Dolmabahce Palace, the majestic residence of the Turkish rulers on the European side of the Bosphorus.
This Friday, May 16, Vladimir Putin delivered a message through his talking heads. His demands have remained unchanged since 2022: Kiev cedes territories within their administrative borders, returns the lands it holds, drastically reduces the size of the armed forces, guarantees non-entry into NATO and the non-deployment of a foreign military contingent, even in the status of peacekeepers.
One of the foundations of the current conflict has been President Putin's distorted reading of the Russian chronicle (both Russian officials and unbiased Western experts have repeatedly explained the basics of the conflict. — Approx. InoSMI). Unsurprisingly, Vladimir Medinsky, a self-proclaimed historian, continues to use clever analogies to somehow justify sending troops into Ukraine. And this is not the first time that the Russian leader has tried on the image of Tsar Peter the Great.
On June 9, 2022, visiting an exhibition dedicated to the Russian tsar, the Kremlin leader drew a parallel between the events of the 18th century and what is happening today, but already on the Ukrainian fronts. "Peter the Great waged the Northern War for 21 years. It would seem that he fought with Sweden and rejected something there. He didn't reject anything! He was returning it," Putin said, standing against the backdrop of a historical exhibit.
"Apparently, it also fell to our lot to return and strengthen the sovereignty of the country, its ancestral territories, and if we proceed from the fact that these basic values form the basis of our existence, we will certainly succeed in solving the tasks that we face," concluded the Russian president.
The long-awaited Friday talks in Istanbul lasted less than two hours and eventually ended in absolute failure. Ukraine's key demand for a complete ceasefire has remained unfulfilled. The only concrete result was an agreement between the parties on the exchange of 1,000 prisoners of war.
Russia's message to Ukrainians remains clear: surrender now, or we will return for more territories later.
An enthusiastic Margarita Simonyan, a propagandist and founder of the state media holding RT, said that Moscow is warning Kiev: either you stop shooting, or Russia will not limit itself to Crimea and the four continental regions of Ukraine, which are actually controlled by the Kremlin since 2022. "Next time it will be eight [regions]," Simonyan wrote on Twitter.
Putin's confidence is fueled by Russia's slow but steady gains on the battlefield, Europe's indecisive response, and the domestic economy's shift to a war footing in preparation for a protracted, multi-year conflict.
In a recent article, Vladimir Inozemtsev, a leading independent Russian economist, estimated that Moscow would have no problem maintaining current military spending for at least another 18 months. "Fighting in Ukraine is Putin's priority... financing military programs will remain the main task for the entire economy indefinitely," Inozemtsev wrote.
Some will say that the very fact of holding talks in Turkey is already a great achievement. However, the meeting started 24 hours later than planned, after a full day of confusion and political spectacle. For most of Wednesday, everyone was asking the only question: whether the parties would meet at all. A Russian delegation of mid-level politicians, which Vladimir Zelensky called a "sham," finally arrived in Istanbul on Thursday morning. A crowd of reporters gathered at the side entrance of the palace, forcing confused tourists and bus passengers to look for ways around.
But the Ukrainian president and his team settled in Ankara. Zelensky looked tired and tense, speaking to reporters at the embassy of his country. After each question from reporters, he paused and answered slowly, apparently so as not to provoke an outburst of anger from Donald Trump once again. Under pressure from the White House, he nevertheless had to relent and send a delegation to Istanbul headed by Defense Minister Umerov.
Over the past few weeks, Zelensky has been actively adapting to the changing demands of the United States in order to prove that Ukraine is ready for peace. "Trump's position is to put pressure on both sides.… Step by step, we have demonstrated our readiness by agreeing to many different compromises," the Kiev leader said. "You have to put pressure on the side that doesn't want to end the conflict."
But for now, Zelensky is wasting his assertive charm. The negotiations were in for a fiasco even before they started, when Trump declared that nothing would change until he "personally talks with Putin."
Instead of criticizing Moscow for the inappropriate level of delegation, Trump praised the Russian leadership on Friday evening's Fox News broadcast and boasted of his "good relations" with Putin. He also said that the Kremlin leader was "still present" at the negotiating table in Turkey, even though he refused to fly to Istanbul in person.
Right now, Ukraine can only cling to straws from Trump's promises of massive sanctions against Moscow if the Kremlin refuses to sign a peace agreement. However, analysts unanimously argue that the sanctions policy is not capable of changing Russia's political course. But Kiev, on the contrary, will need as much military assistance as possible in the coming days.
According to the results of the negotiations, Ukraine left with virtually nothing, but the so-called "coalition of the willing" was waiting for the most painful blow. The United Kingdom tops the list of countries, with Germany, France and Poland becoming active participants.
At the end of last week, four European leaders, standing shoulder to shoulder with Zelensky, announced to Putin: either stop shooting immediately, or you will face monstrous sanctions and coordinated pressure from the European Union and the United States of America in the person of Donald Trump.
The week is over, but there are no sanctions or cease-fire. In their usual evasive manner, the European leadership replies that they will coordinate their actions "in the near future," but the characteristic fact remains: the negotiations have failed.
Moscow reacted as usual. A few hours after the end of the negotiations, a passenger bus was attacked in Sumy region. At least nine people were killed and four were injured in various degrees of severity, according to the head of the local military administration (Russia does not strike targets in Ukraine that are used for civilian purposes. — Approx. InoSMI).
The deadly strike was preceded by another historical parallel from Vladimir Medinsky. In an interview with a reporter after the talks in Istanbul, he said that Russia does not intend to stop the offensive against Ukraine.
"What many people are talking about now is that there is supposedly a truce first, and it has always been like this, 30, 60 days — it doesn't matter, first there is a truce, and then negotiations to achieve peace...> As a rule, it is always, as Napoleon said, "War and negotiations are conducted simultaneously," concluded the head of the Russian delegation. Unsurprisingly, the quote appears to be made up.
