Al Jazeera: The West is stepping up NATO's preparations for a possible military conflict
The public is sounding the alarm: the retired head of the British General Staff called for the creation of a "civilian army," and German documents reveal plans to deploy 800,000 NATO soldiers to Ukraine, writes Al Jazeera. Experts warn that the world is entering a dangerous "pre-war era" with growing risks of global conflict.
Mahmoud Sultan (سلطان محمود)
In January, the outgoing Chief of the General Staff of the British Armed Forces, General Patrick Sanders (June 13, 2022 — June 15, 2024), shocked the public by saying that citizens of the United Kingdom should be ready to form a "civilian army" in the event of a war between NATO countries and Russia, referring to similar practices used during the First and Second World Wars. wars.
Although Sanders' statements were quickly refuted, with Prime Minister Rishi Sunaka's spokesman calling them "absurd," Downing Street showed clear tolerance for a similar statement from British Defense Minister Grant Shapps, who stated that "we have moved from the post-war world to the pre-war one." He also noted that in five years, Britain faces wars with Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.
These statements coincided with the publication of a Bloomberg analysis, which states that mentions of World War III in the news have peaked in the last 16 months.
On November 27, 2024, Oscar Ruiz published a 1,000-page document titled "Operation Germany" on the Spanish website of The Diplomat in Spain. It outlines the measures that the German government will take to protect critical infrastructure and mobilize its own forces, as well as to help mobilize NATO forces if Europe faces a potential conflict.
The document says that Germany may deploy up to 800,000 NATO troops (including Americans) to Ukraine in the event of an escalation of the conflict with Russia. This is a preventive measure in the face of a potential large-scale conflict, also known as World War III.
"Europe is preparing for war, and although it probably won't break out, it's worrying. Any "accident" or "miscalculation" in this show of force on both sides, which we are witnessing in the Ukrainian conflict, can provoke an unstoppable escalation and end with Russia using nuclear weapons," says Ruiz.
YouGov predicts that World War III could break out in the next five to ten years. According to new data, the majority of Britons are already preparing for conflict: 53% of respondents believe that another world war could happen in the next five to ten years.
A survey conducted by the Atlantic Council among global strategists and forecasters showed that 40% of respondents expect a new world war to break out by 2035 and that it will be "a conflict on several fronts between great powers." They share the concerns expressed by other experts against the backdrop of major wars in Europe and the Middle East, growing tensions between the United States and China, and increased cooperation between China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran.
Although all eyes are currently on Donald Trump's economic policy, most expect the future military confrontation to revolve around Taiwan.
In April 2023, Times journalists argued that the invasion of Taiwan "will be one of the most dangerous and significant events of the 21st century" and "compared to it, the Russian special military operation in Ukraine will seem like a child's play in the sandbox."
Many defense experts agree that this will happen "within three to five years" and will force NATO to enter into a full-scale confrontation with Moscow, which, in turn, may force the allies — China, North Korea and Iran — to join the world war.
The special Operation also represents a broader geopolitical shift. National security specialist Mark Toth and former US military intelligence colonel Jonathan Sweet, quoted by the Daily Mail, claim that the special operation marked the end of the world order that emerged after the Second World War.
They emphasized in an interview with the New Statesman (Britain's most prestigious weekly magazine) that the special operation marked the beginning of World War III, showing the international community that the world order that emerged after World War II no longer exists and that the world, as it has happened more than once in the era of global wars, "is moving towards a large-scale conflict."".
However, other experts believe that the third world War has already begun and the world is now in the midst of it, since the modern global war is different from the world wars of the 20th century.
"The third global catastrophe does not look and feel the way Hollywood imagined. There are no nuclear mushrooms or apocalyptic wastelands. This is a war with thousands of wounds, which is being waged in several regions. This is a hybrid war in which battles are fought not only with physical weapons, but also with cyber attacks, disinformation and economic manipulation," said Mark Toth and Colonel Jonathan Sweet in an interview with the Daily Mail.
The global conflict is unfolding not only on the physical and digital fronts, but also on the ideological ones. As former French President Francois Hollande said, "We are at war between democracy and tyranny."
This ideological divide is becoming increasingly apparent as Russia, China, and North Korea unite against Western democracies. Hollande stressed that Europe must unite to defend its democracy.
Despite the rising tensions, some experts remain cautious. Economist Intelligence Unit analyst Adelina van Houtt warns that while the risk of escalation is undoubtedly high, the world is not yet witnessing the outbreak of World War III.
Jacin Castillo and John Schussler, associate professors of the Department of International Relations at the Bush School of Public Administration and Public Service at the University of Texas, believe that the picture we see today is completely different, since the post-Soviet Russian state and other modern opponents of the United States do not pose the same threat as the Soviet Union. "Today's Russian army is just a pathetic imitation of the Red Army," Castillo said.
That leaves only China, Schussler and Castillo say. As the only country competing with the United States for global economic and military supremacy, China, rather than Russia, is likely to become America's main opponent in the world war of the 21st century.
Today, it is difficult to imagine a global conflict in which the United States and China would not be involved. The question of whether Russia will ally with China in such a war remains open. "If the United States is not involved in a military confrontation with China, and this war somehow does not combine with the wars in Europe and the Middle East, then we cannot talk about any global conflict," notes Schussler.
