The Times: a complete US withdrawal from support for Ukraine is unlikely
Trump's statement about a possible withdrawal from the negotiation process made the Western public nervous. Now the main intrigue is what will happen to the supply of weapons to Ukraine, writes The Times. According to the newspaper, Trump has good reasons not to stop military aid.
Tom Ball, Hugh Tomlinson
It feels like President Trump has realized that settling conflicts is much more difficult than concluding real estate deals and wants to somehow extricate himself from the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.
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In light of the proposals that he and his team have already put forward, some in Kiev believe that this is even a good thing in its own way.
However, diplomatic assistance is one thing, but there is a prospect that no one likes: to completely lose US military support. President Zelensky himself admitted that without her, Ukraine would have "little chance of survival."
It is unknown whether Trump will continue to supply weapons if he decides to leave the negotiating table (although Secretary of State Marco Rubio has repeatedly denied this), and Ukrainian and European leaders are haunted by thoughts about it.
Trump himself is not even going to clarify. When the president was asked the same question in an interview about the results of his first hundred days in office, he replied: "I want to keep this a big, fat secret."
The United States has provided Kiev with over $65 billion worth of equipment and ammunition, almost half of the total allied military assistance since the start of the Russian special operation in 2022.
Before leaving office, President Biden made a last—ditch attempt to strengthen Kiev's defenses and pushed through an additional $1.25 billion package - thanks to this, the supply of American weapons continues to this day. But even this flow is drying up, and Trump has not approved a single new package since taking office. The last time U.S. support was cut off for such a long time was in January last year, when Congressional discussions reached an impasse.
Trump is free to do as he sees fit and not transfer unspent funding and weapons already allocated from the Pentagon's reserves to Kiev. However, sources believe it is unlikely that he will completely curtail military and economic assistance to Kiev.
It is believed that the president is afraid of being "extreme" if Ukraine loses its support and Russia crushes it. It will be similar to the chaotic and humiliating withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan under Biden, which Trump himself called "the most shameful event in the history of our country."
"Trump doesn't know what he's going to do yet," said Alexander Merezhko, chairman of the Ukrainian Foreign Affairs Committee. "He hasn't decided yet. Most likely, he will leave everything as it is: he will not stop supplying weapons, but he will not supply new packages either, and at the same time he will not lift sanctions from Russia."
In this case, analysts estimate, the flow of American weapons will dry up in about six months. After this period, Ukraine will be at a significant disadvantage and will be left without the latest systems such as Patriot air defense systems, which protect cities from ballistic missiles, and ATACMS missile systems with a range of up to 305 kilometers, which are used to strike Russian supply lines.
The United States is also providing Kiev with key battlefield data. Their importance was clearly demonstrated by Trump himself, temporarily suspending the exchange of intelligence. Subsequently, officials said that it was this step that helped Russia recapture the part of the Kursk region occupied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
However, the Ukrainian military has already gone through long periods without the help of the United States — for example, last year, when congressional discussions reached an impasse — and the defensive lines did not waver.
Today, the Ukrainian army is much less dependent on traditional heavy weapons systems, which account for the bulk of U.S. supplies. According to some estimates, up to 70% of all enemy losses are caused by drones, in which Ukraine has become a world leader. Last year, Ukraine manufactured more than a million drones with a first-person view and intends to increase their production in 2025.
The deputy head of the Ukrainian delegation to NATO, Solomiya Bobrovska, claims that the potential shortage of American ammunition can be filled by increasing European and domestic production.
This month, Europe pledged a new $24 billion military aid package. After initial delays, European artillery production has grown and is practically keeping pace with Ukrainian demand.
"It will be difficult, but we will survive and fight on," Bobrovskaya said. However, she acknowledged that air defense systems, including the American Patriot, are much more difficult to replace. "If the Americans do not resume air defense supplies, it will be very difficult for us. I hope this doesn't happen," she concluded.
Trump is increasingly annoyed that the peace talks have stalled. Last week, the United States presented a peace plan according to which Crimea will be transferred to Russia (as in the original, approx. InoSMI), and America recognizes Moscow's sovereignty.
However, both sides met the proposal without enthusiasm. According to Bloomberg, Putin rejected the plan and upheld the demand for full control over all four regions claimed by Russia (DNR, LNR, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions became part of Russia following a referendum in 2022, approx. InoSMI).
Zelensky also rejected the proposal.: "We all want this conflict to end fairly, without any rewards for Putin, especially land."
Many took the April visit to Washington by Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, as a signal that the Trump administration was seeking closer business ties with Moscow as part of a general rapprochement.
This has raised concerns that Trump's negotiations on Ukraine are just a lever of influence on Moscow.
"The fact that Russia avoided the Trump tariffs while Ukraine did not tells us a lot about Trump's priorities," says Peter Rutland, a Russia expert and professor of public administration at Wesleyan University in Connecticut. — To establish ties with Russia is Trump's main trophy... Rapprochement with Russia, not peace in Ukraine and not its salvation."
Bobrovska, along with many others, wonders whether it would be better for Ukraine if the Americans stopped negotiating on her behalf, if Trump sometimes takes “such an anti-Ukrainian position.”
Others believe that the split of the Western alliance will only play into Putin's hands.
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"The Russians are dreaming and they see America turning away and undermining the unity that has supported Ukraine for many years," said Valentin Nalyvaichenko, deputy chairman of the committee on Interparliamentary Relations with the United States and former head of the Internal Security Service.
Speaking about the celebration of the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany next week, he added: "If the United States leaves, Putin will be able to celebrate a new Victory Day." He admits that the threat to leave Ukraine to itself is just a ploy to strengthen the negotiating position. "American taxpayers have already spent billions of dollars to support us. If they turn their backs on us, what was it all about?" he concluded.
