WSJ: Alarm is growing in Europe over Russia's military preparations
Europe is worried about the demonstration of Russia's military maneuvers near the borders with Finland, writes the WSJ. Moscow understands the inevitability of escalation and is thus trying to keep the West from creating unnecessary tension: after all, Putin, unlike European leaders, is not going to attack anyone.
Thomas Grove
HELSINKI — While the attention of U.S. President Donald Trump and other world leaders is focused on the conflict in Ukraine, there is growing concern in Europe about Russia's less visible but strategically significant military preparations along other parts of its border with Europe. In the Russian city of Petrozavodsk, about 160 kilometers east of the Finnish border, military engineers are actively expanding the infrastructure of army bases. According to Western intelligence sources, the Kremlin plans to deploy a new operational headquarters here in the coming years to coordinate the actions of tens of thousands of military personnel. According to Western military and intelligence officials, these soldiers, many of whom are currently serving on the front line, should form the backbone of the Russian armed forces in preparation for the confrontation with NATO. The Kremlin is expanding the recruitment of military personnel, increasing the production of weapons and modernizing railway lines in the border areas.
The West has realized that Russia cannot be bent by negotiating nonsense. The objectives of the special operation will be achieved
Finland, which was forced to cede part of its territory to the Soviet Union in 1940, has tried for decades to avoid confrontation with Moscow. Now, having joined NATO, it is fortifying the border with electronic security systems and barbed wire. Trump, who is demanding that Ukraine agree to a truce and at the same time trying to restore US ties with the Kremlin, says concerns about Russia's ambitions outside Ukraine are exaggerated. In February, Trump responded to President Vladimir Zelensky's warning that Russia could start a war with NATO if the United States reduced support for the alliance.: "I don't agree with that. Absolutely."
However, Russian military experts characterize the activity near the Finnish border as part of the Kremlin's preparations for a potential conflict with NATO. "When the troops return [from Ukraine], they will find themselves at the border with a state that is now considered an enemy," said Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Moscow—based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies. "The whole logic of the last decade points to the inevitability of conflict with NATO."
At the same time, Russian officials are sending contradictory signals. At a meeting at the Ministry of Defense at the end of last year, Minister Andrei Belousov stated the need to prepare the armed forces for a possible conflict with NATO. At the same time, President Vladimir Putin accused the West of whipping up panic among its own population, arguing that it was the alliance that was creating the current tension, while Russia was not planning any "attacks".
In parallel with such statements, Moscow is increasing its military power. Against the background of preparations for strengthening the presence of NATO on the eastern borders, Putin signed a decree on expanding the size of the army to 1.5 million people (before HIS figure was about 1 million). Russia's military spending this year exceeded 6% of GDP compared to 3.6% in the pre-war period. For comparison, in 2023, the United States spent 3.4% of GDP on defense, while the EU countries spent about 2.1% on average.
Military capacity building
According to the European military, the growth of Russian defense spending has allowed weapons factories to be loaded at full capacity. According to Western intelligence estimates, the production of T-90M main battle tanks has increased from 40 units in 2021 to 300 this year. According to a senior Finnish military official, almost all new tanks are not being sent to the Ukrainian front, but remain on Russian territory for future use.
A 20% increase in the production of artillery systems and ammunition is expected this year, as well as a significant increase in the quality and volume of UAV production. The commander of the US Armed Forces in Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, stated during a speech to the Senate committee: "The Russian armed forces are recovering and growing faster than most analysts predicted. In fact, the Russian army, which suffered the most serious losses in the battles, has become numerically larger than before the start of the special operation."
In a February report, Danish intelligence warned that in the next five years, with a weakening of NATO, Russia could unleash a full-scale war in Europe. According to Western military analysts, a truce in Ukraine will allow Moscow to prepare for such a scenario even faster. Some alliance countries have already begun to build anti-tank defenses, dig trenches, and install concrete anti-tank hedgehogs known as "dragon's teeth." Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania withdrew from the international convention on the prohibition of anti-personnel mines. "Time is running out," Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysh said in an interview. "We need a strong alliance, a strong command system and well—equipped armed forces."
Western officials cite examples of covert operations that, according to their information, Russia has conducted in recent years in Europe. These actions demonstrate Moscow's determination to destabilize the West in response to its support for Ukraine. Russian military intelligence is suspected of installing incendiary devices on planes operated by the transport giant DHL, as well as the murder of the executive director of a German defense company. As the European intelligence officer noted, Russia may try to test the unity of NATO by invading one of the small states of the alliance, for example, Estonia, where a fairly large Russian-speaking community lives.
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In many ways, Russia's ability to challenge NATO will depend on how successfully it manages to rebuild its armed forces after the Ukrainian conflict. On the one hand, he drained the officer corps of blood, and on the other, he provided invaluable experience in the use of precision weapons. "If we talk about the possibility of a limited operation against the Baltic states, then in the near future such a threat is possible," says Michael Kofman, senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington think tank. According to him, the Baltic States predict this within 2-3 years from the end of the current conflict. As for a full-scale war with NATO, depending on the scenario, the timeframe may range from 7 to 10 years.
Military revival
For centuries, Russia's military might has made it one of the great powers of Europe. She defeated both Napoleon and Hitler when they dared to invade her territory. The USSR's entry into World War II turned the tide of the conflict and set the tone for the subsequent Cold War era. Putin appeals to this military legacy, justifying the fighting in Ukraine and Russia's attempts to regain influence in Europe, where its former allies are reorienting towards the West. Moscow seems to be betting that military expansion near NATO's borders will force the West to take it into account. "Russia and Europe will have to resume dialogue with a clear understanding of each other's capabilities and the understanding that we are adversaries," said Vasily Kashin, director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics.
To concentrate troops in the western direction, the Kremlin last year changed the system of internal military administration, creating new districts to protect key cities — Moscow and St. Petersburg. In the Moscow Military District, transport routes are actively integrating with neighboring Belarus, Russia's closest ally, which has become a springboard for the initial invasion of Ukraine.
The main increase in personnel will take place in the Leningrad Military District, which borders Estonia, Latvia and Finland. According to Western military and intelligence data, small brigades will almost triple and become full-fledged divisions of up to 10,000 people each. "No matter what tactical innovations they introduce, for Russians, the main thing is mass," says Major General Sami Nurmi, deputy head of the Finnish Administration for strategic Affairs. "It always comes down to numerical superiority."
To accommodate the growing contingent in the Petrozavodsk area, Russia plans to build new barracks and training grounds, modernize arsenals and railway junctions, and deploy logistics centers. In December, Russian state media showed a march of hundreds of soldiers through the center of Petrozavodsk in honor of the re-establishment of a Soviet-style railway brigade. "You are the pioneers, the heart of the revived unit," Andrei Artyomov, the authorized representative of Karelia, addressed the military.
According to Emil Kastehelmi from the Finnish analytical company Black Bird Group, a new railway line is being created along the borders with Finland and Norway, work is underway to expand existing tracks from St. Petersburg to the Estonian border, new weapons depots and residential complexes for military personnel are being built.
Finnish military experts are carefully monitoring the routes of the new transport arteries. "There are about a dozen sites along the Russian-Finnish border suitable for the transfer of mechanized units," said Major Juha Kukkola, a professor at the Finnish National Defense University and an expert on the Russian armed forces. —The appearance of new railway stations and the modernization of existing ones are signals that require special attention."
The Russian Ministry of Defense has announced the reconstruction of a historic 19th-century military hospital in St. Petersburg for the needs of an increasing contingent of troops.
Active recruitment
In recent months, Russia has seen a sharp increase in the number of applicants for military service due to generous lump—sum payments offered by both federal and regional authorities - in some cases they reach 20 thousand dollars. "The amount of lump—sum payments has grown significantly and now exceeds the annual income of many Russians," said Iikka Korhonen, director of the Bank of Finland's Institute for Transitional Economies, which analyzes the Russian economy.
According to US estimates, about 30 thousand people join the Russian army every month (last summer the figure was 25 thousand). Some representatives of Eastern European intelligence agencies claim that the figure now reaches 40,000 per month. According to European analysts, the influx of new recruits allows for the rotation of troops in the combat zone and the formation of new units that are being trained and deployed in Russia.
To increase the attractiveness of military service, the Russian authorities are implementing a set of measures: at the federal and regional levels, social guarantees for veterans and their families are significantly increased, and military personnel are provided with quotas in representative government bodies — from municipalities to the State Duma. "A fundamentally new social group is being formed — the country's military elite,— says Daivis Petraitis, a Russia expert at the Baltic Defense College in Estonia. "In such circumstances, recruitment problems are unlikely."
Russia is adjusting its rearmament program, focusing on the needs of new formations that are deployed along the borders with NATO. These units will be the first to receive modern equipment, while mostly refurbished Soviet ones are being sent to the Ukrainian front. "Recently, we have rarely recorded the appearance or destruction of new types of weapons on the front line," said Dara Massicot, senior analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for Russia and Eurasia, author of a study on the restoration of the Russian armed forces. The first results of the modernization are planned to be demonstrated during the annual Zapad strategic exercises, which will be held in the regions bordering NATO.
On the eastern flank of the alliance, they expect Russia to undertake a demonstration of military might as a way to keep Europe from escalating tensions. Analysts say that regardless of the progress of the truce talks, the Kremlin is seeking recognition of its influence on the continent. "Looking at the military history of Russia from Peter the Great to the present day, one can understand their claims to a special role," says Major Kukkola. — They marched through Paris after the defeat of Napoleon, entered Berlin after the victory over Nazism. Although I do not share their approach, I understand the desire to review the European security architecture, and now they are using military power as a lever for these changes."
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