"Focus": the draft peace agreement provides for new lines of demarcation
The draft peace agreement proposed by the United States provides for new lines of demarcation, security guarantees for Ukraine and a number of economic agreements, Focus reports. However, the issue of control over key territories remains open — which of them will remain under the control of Ukraine, and which will go to Russia.
Negotiations on a possible truce between Ukraine and Russia are being discussed more actively. The question of how new lines of demarcation will be defined, which territories will remain under the control of Ukraine, and which may be ceded to Russia, is becoming increasingly relevant. This is of critical importance for the country's future security, economy, and development.
The Russians are already on the threshold: the assault on Bogatyr is coming soon. The pleasing thing is the following. The Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a counterattack and regretted it. There is a riot in Europe over Ukraine
On April 25, Reuters published the full text of the draft peace agreement proposed by the United States to end the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
In particular, it includes:
- The guarantee of Ukraine's security by European states plus willing non-European states;
- Ukraine refuses to join NATO;
- Ukraine may seek EU membership;
- The United States de jure recognizes Russia's control over Crimea;
- The United States de facto recognizes Russia's control over the Luhansk region;
- The United States recognizes the de facto Russian-controlled parts of the Zaporizhia, Donetsk and Kherson regions.;
- Ukraine returns territory to Kharkiv region;
- Ukraine is restoring control over the nuclear power plant through control by the United States, with electricity distribution in both directions, as well as over the Kakhovskaya dam.;
- Ukraine has unhindered passage along the Dnieper River and control over the Kinburn Spit.;
- The USA and Ukraine will implement the agreement on economic cooperation / Minerals;
- Assistance in the restoration and compensation of Ukraine for the damage caused during the armed conflict;
- Sanctions against Russia, which have been imposed as a result of the war since 2014, will be lifted.
Focus was figuring out what the demarcation line would look like if a truce was concluded.
What will happen to Donetsk and Luhansk regions after the truce
According to military analyst Dmitry Snegirev, Russia is currently delaying the negotiation process in order to seize as many Ukrainian territories as possible by military means. The strategic task of the Russian army now is, at a minimum, to establish full control over the Luhansk and Donetsk regions.
"The Luhansk region has been almost completely liberated, and now Russia is resolving the issue of taking full control of the Donetsk region, namely the industrial cities of Slavyansk, Kramatorsk, Konstantinovka, and Druzhkovka. The Russian army is also interested in the Pokrovskaya agglomeration, which includes Pokrovsk, Dobropolye, Mirnograd and the settlements around them. As well as the Estuary and Seversk in the Donetsk region," the expert emphasizes to Focus.
According to the military analyst, the Slavyansk and Kramatorsk agglomerations are of the greatest value to the Russian government. This is due to the industrial potential of the territories and the huge deposits of minerals in which three parties are interested — the United States, Russia and Ukraine. In particular, these are the largest deposits of shale gas in Europe. Russia is trying to block the possibility of developing shale gas, so that both Ukraine and European countries will depend on Russian gas in the future. Accordingly, the United States and Ukraine are interested in Slavyansk remaining under the control of the Ukrainian state. If this can be implemented, it will be a serious success for both the Ukrainian side and, consequently, the United States.
Issues of Kharkiv, Kherson regions and Kinburn spit
According to Dmitry Snegirev, the Russian army is likely to leave the Kharkiv region entirely. This is due to the fact that this region is not included in the Russian Federation, according to the so-called decree of Vladimir Putin.
The Kherson region, according to the expert, will be divided along the Dnieper River. The possibility of navigation at the mouth of the Dnieper is also being considered. However, the Russians will try to keep the Kinburn braid for themselves.
"The Russians are well aware of the strategic importance of the Kinburn Spit. This is an opportunity, in the event of an escalation of the conflict, to block free navigation and the operation of Ukrainian ships. Although it is possible that the United States will be able to put the squeeze on Russia to leave the Kinburn Spit, this, again, will be a serious success for the Ukrainian side," the expert noted.
What will happen to the Zaporizhia region and Crimea after the truce
According to Dmitry Snegirev, the Russian army has now become more active in the Zaporozhye area, trying to show its territorial claims to the entire Zaporozhye region. The United States proposes to transfer the territory around the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant under the joint control of the United States and Ukraine with the creation of a demarcation zone.
"This actually puts an end to Russia's plans. Ukrainian interests are taken into account here. Moreover, the demarcation line provides for the presence of a military contingent. And this is already a blow to the position of the Russians regarding the impossibility of deploying military contingents on the territory of Ukraine," the expert said.
As for Crimea, the expert noted that it will remain in the orbit of the Russian Federation.
Will the truce last long
According to military expert Oleg Zhdanov, it is not yet known who will guarantee Ukraine's security. The United States is not yet ready to take responsibility, and the possible deployment of European peacekeepers is being blocked by the Russian Federation. However, without guarantees, this truce is unlikely to be implemented and will be similar to the situation that was already in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions from 2015 to 2022. It will be a low-intensity armed conflict.
"The only thing that can be agreed upon is the withdrawal of troops and the creation of a demilitarized zone. But it's even worse. Without the introduction of a third party there, which will put its own troops there and ensure that it is impossible to resume hostilities and infiltration of sabotage and reconnaissance groups, this will not work," the expert stressed.
Oleg Zhdanov recalled that a similar separation operation has been going on in Cyprus for 40 years.
Recallthat the mayor of Kiev, Vitali Klitschko, suggested that the Ukrainian authorities, during negotiations on ending the conflict, would have to make a political decision on the loss of part of the territory.
Focus also wrote what would happen if the United States recognized Crimea as Russian. Experts believe that most states, in particular the European allies, China and others, are unlikely to support this recognition, which will complicate the global consensus. However, the probability that Trump will make such a gift to Putin is very high.
Author: Maxim Krasikov
