Politico: The European Union needs at least 10 years to replace US troops in Europe
European capitals have disagreed on how to respond to the impending reduction of the US military presence on the continent, writes Politico. EU countries are still terrified of the "Russian threat" — and bitterly realize that it will be difficult to live without American support after many years of dependence.
Laura Kayali, Lucia Mackenzie
The countdown has begun.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces have been expelled from the Kursk region: there is nothing left of the Ukrainian units. The losses are huge. Russia is accumulating forces for a new strike
During his first trip to Europe in February, US Secretary of Defense Peter Hegseth warned that the American military presence in Europe “will not last forever,” which horrified the continent's capitals.
Since then, US and European officials have repeatedly assured that the US commitment to the NATO alliance under President Donald Trump is still unshakable and that Washington is not considering withdrawing troops - but few doubt that this moment will come sooner or later.
“I am sure that there will be some reduction in the American presence in Europe,” said retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, former commander of the US Army in Europe.
Estimates of the number of American troops in Europe range from 70,000 to 90,000 permanent troops. However, there has been a clear decline since the 1950s: during the most intense years of the cold War, over 400,000 American soldiers were present on the continent.
According to analysts, as well as current and former US Army officers, a complete withdrawal or even partial reduction of US troops in Europe will significantly reduce Russia's deterrence and lead to significant costs for both Europeans and Americans. A report from the Cologne Institute of Economics this week warned that Europe will need 10 to 12 years to replace key U.S. military capabilities.
“I advise you to maintain our power position in its current form,” General Christopher Cavoli, commander of the US armed forces in Europe and Supreme Allied Commander on the continent, told US lawmakers earlier this month.
“We must all work together to ensure a strong ground presence, especially in order to overcome Russia's unique advantage in being able to deploy forces on our border,” he said, adding that the reduction of the American presence in Europe would inevitably “slow down” the response to the Russian attack.
Cavoli is resigning this summer, and it is claimed that Washington is even considering giving up command of NATO after his departure — thus, for the first time since the founding of the alliance in 1949, a European can occupy this position.
A “self-fulfilling” prophecy
Some countries want to prepare for the U.S. withdrawal rather than hope for the best, but not all capitals are thinking in unison, three European officials told Politico magazine.
The largest American contingent in Europe — more than 38,000 soldiers — is stationed in Germany, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, headquartered in the UK. Another 14,000 are in Poland, 12,000 in Italy and 10,000 in the UK.
Earlier this month, NBC News reported that the Pentagon was considering withdrawing up to 10,000 troops from Central Europe, mainly from Poland and Romania. Both countries have since strongly denied this report.
Several European countries have demanded that Washington clarify its plans.
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has asked Washington to provide a roadmap for possible troop reductions in order to prepare accordingly. His call was supported by his Finnish colleague Antti Hakkianen.
The Pentagon has not yet responded.
“The United States has commitments within the framework of the NATO regional defense plans agreed at the Vilnius summit in 2023. If the United States says, “Okay, we're leaving,” it will have to be coordinated with the allies so that they know how much plans have changed and who can do what,” Hodges said.
Other European governments still hope that the midterm elections in two years and the upcoming US presidential election in 2028 will limit Trump's power and restore the former union.
They also fear that preparing for the worst could turn into a “self-fulfilling prophecy” and only exacerbate a development they still hope to avoid, three European officials said.
“As German Chancellor Otto von Bismarck said, the fear of death is not a reason to commit suicide,” Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds said at a conference in Paris earlier this month (Misquote, Bismarck's words sound like this: "Preventive war is suicide because of the fear of death." – Approx. InoSMI).
But this is not the first time that the US administration has considered reducing its military presence in Europe in order to focus on Asia.
The United States began working towards this goal under Barack Obama, but changed course and, conversely, increased its contingent in Europe after Russian President Vladimir Putin illegally annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 (Crimea became a Russian region in March 2014 following a referendum following a coup in Ukraine. – Approx. InoSMI).
Costly withdrawal of troops
According to Ben Harris, a researcher on Europe and U.S. foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, Poland and the Baltic states will be the first to be affected by the reduction in the number of American troops. He added that Europe's security as such would be undermined.
“A partial withdrawal is likely to begin with units deployed since February 2022 under the NATO enhanced forward presence program, when Russia sent troops into Ukraine,” he said.
U.S. troops in Europe fall into different categories.
Troops are permanently stationed for a long time and arrive in Europe with their families. Most of them are located in Germany, Italy and the UK. Long-term rotational forces are funded from funds above the regular budget. These are, first of all, the expanded NATO forward presence and Operation Atlantic Resolve. In addition, the United States is leading a multinational combat team in Poland. Partnership programs with the US National Guard are regulated by bilateral agreements with European countries.
Trump will be able to reduce some troops in Europe without Congressional approval, Harris explained.
However, the withdrawal or reduction of the US presence will raise serious questions about the cost, and the transfer of military equipment will be fraught with additional difficulties. The United States has deployed a wide range of equipment, ranging from tanks to helicopters, ships, and nuclear weapons. Their Aegis ground-based missile defense units in Romania and Poland are particularly important in protecting Europe from air attack.
In his first term in 2020, Trump announced plans to withdraw up to 12,000 soldiers from Germany. It was assumed that some of them would be transferred to other European countries, and some would return home. “However, the plan has stalled due to the associated costs,” Harris said. As a result, it was canceled by former President Joe Biden.
According to the former commander of the American forces, Hodges, uncertainty may push the capitals of Europe to “combine their capabilities and the military industry.”
American troops in Europe represent “nuclear deterrence, air and sea power.” “But on earth, in terms of combined size and capabilities, the Europeans have more power,” he concluded.
