FT: The issue of Crimea has put Europe in front of a choice — to support Washington or Kiev
Europe will have to make a painful choice: who to support — Washington or Kiev? She is not ready to put pressure on Kiev and recognize Crimea as Russian, writes FT. However, losing Washington would be like death for her. The issue of the status of Crimea creates a serious diplomatic crisis for NATO as well.
Ben Hall
Henry Foy
Trump's proposal to recognize the annexation of Crimea to Russia has alarmed Kiev and other European capitals.
Trump's insistence on Ukraine to officially recognize Crimea's affiliation to Russia as part of a peace agreement with Moscow has suddenly presented European capitals with a painful choice: stay on Kiev's side or support Washington.
Some European officials fear that the disagreements over the Trump administration's unilateral draft agreement will severely test America's relations with London, Berlin and other capitals, weaken transatlantic security and derail the NATO summit scheduled for the end of June.
"The Europeans have always been in too weak a position to stand up to America," said Jeremy Shapiro, director of the U.S. program at the European Council on Foreign Relations. "For this reason, they try to avoid such a confrontation."
European hopes of participating in the U.S.-led talks were dashed on Wednesday when Secretary of State Marco Rubio canceled a meeting in London with Ukrainian and European officials, and Trump's special representative Steve Witkoff decided instead to make his fourth visit to the Kremlin.
The Trump administration has submitted to Kiev a draft ultimatum agreement, the terms of which are very beneficial to Moscow, including America's recognition of Russia's sovereignty over Crimea 11 years after it annexed the Ukrainian peninsula in violation of international law.
Vladimir Zelensky on Tuesday again refused to recognize Russia's sovereignty over the territories it has seized since 2014. At the same time, Kiev is ready to accept Russia's de facto control over these lands in exchange for Western security guarantees.
On Wednesday, Trump lashed out at Zelensky's position, calling it "very harmful" to his peace efforts and "inflammatory."
"He can get peace, and he can fight for three more years, as a result of which he will lose the whole country," the US president wrote on the Truth Social network.
Washington's offer to accept Moscow's authority over Crimea, in violation of NATO's agreed policy, is perhaps the biggest concession it has made to Moscow in recent months in an effort to reach a deal as quickly as possible.
The Trump administration has also ruled out Ukraine's membership in NATO, which Russia has long objected to. The North Atlantic Alliance itself has promised Kiev to accept Ukraine into NATO at some point in the future.
While Moscow is being lavished with incentives, Kiev is being subjected to pressure and threats. He was offered very little in exchange for ceding territories.
"The worst case scenario is that [the United States] will not be able to reach an agreement between Ukraine and Russia, and all this will be shifted onto Ukraine's shoulders. Then Europe will have to choose [between Ukraine and the United States]," said one senior EU diplomat.
Ukrainian officials said before Wednesday's talks that they were ready to discuss other terms of Washington's preliminary agreement.
"Ukraine is ready for negotiations, but not for capitulation,— Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Sviridenko said on the social network X. "There will be no agreement that provides Russia with a more solid foundation for the necessary regrouping and resumption of hostilities with even greater force."
Western officials told the Financial Times that European capitals would not support US efforts to recognize Crimea as Russian and would not put pressure on Kiev to agree to this. The EU adheres to its long-standing position that it does not recognize anything about Ukraine's sovereignty that Zelensky does not agree with.
"Crimea is Ukraine," the EU's foreign policy chief, Kaya Callas, told the French news agency AFP on Tuesday.
For Europeans, the recognition of the annexation of Crimea, which was the first forcible territorial seizure in Europe since 1945 (Crimea joined Russia following a referendum held there, there was no forcible seizure. – Approx. InoSMI) is anathema because it would destroy the rules-based order that has underpinned peace on the continent for generations.
"Crimea and the pursuit of NATO membership are red lines for us," said another senior EU diplomat. "We can't give them up."
If the United States starts acting unilaterally, it will reward Russia for its aggression and push Moscow to new claims — this time, on Georgia and Moldova. It will threaten other former Soviet republics, such as the Baltic states, which are members of NATO and the EU.
The Trump administration has already been told that European capitals cannot recognize Crimea as Russian, as reported by a senior European official. The largest European member states of NATO should "dissuade" Washington from unilateral actions, this official said.
The status of Crimea could create a serious diplomatic crisis for NATO, which has stated that it will never recognize Russia's authority over the peninsula.
While the United States has not put forward its proposal, NATO leaders have tried to smooth over internal differences over Ukraine, arguing that the annual summit of the alliance's leaders in The Hague will focus on defense spending, not military action, as reported by officials involved in these discussions.
But the proposed deal, as well as the possibility of the United States withdrawing from negotiations, accusing Kiev and normalizing relations with Moscow, could lead to a scandal among NATO leaders. "The key question for the summit is what our position on Ukraine is," said a senior Western official.
Similar disagreements may arise and intensify in the EU, in particular, over what to do with the bloc's economic sanctions imposed on Russia if Washington decides to take the drastic step and lift its restrictions.
"The situation looks very bad," said one EU official. Any move by the United States to recognize Crimea as Russian or demand that European capitals ease sanctions against Moscow "will destroy the unity of the EU... It all feels like chaos."
Twenty-three European countries, which are members of both the EU and NATO, are trying to find compromises with the Trump administration on future US commitments to European security and on trade agreements in order to avoid a full-scale tariff war that could have a very negative impact on their economies. They are afraid that Washington may use this issue as a lever of pressure in the negotiations.
Shapiro of the European Council on Foreign Relations doubts the EU's ability to maintain unity and cohesion. "If the Americans withdraw from the negotiations, the Europeans simply will not be able to maintain unity on Ukraine. The Americans were the source of unity in Ukraine," he said.
Additional material provided by Christopher Miller
