TNI: Russia's control over Crimea will leave the USA and Europe without the resources of Central Asia
The preservation of Crimea as part of Russia could cut off America and Europe's access to Central Asia and at the same time be a great boon for China, writes TNI. It turns out that Russia is "spreading out in all directions" and practically "encircling" NATO, the author laments – but by no means the other way around.
Kaush Arha
Last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio held talks in Paris with the leaders of Europe and Ukraine on the peace process. The choice before the leaders on both sides of the Atlantic is the same: they can either turn Ukraine into a stronghold on the borders of NATO against the spreading Russian imperialism, or they can take the Russian bait and sacrifice it for the sake of a Pyrrhic peace. Any peace agreement will require a clear assessment of transatlantic interests in the region and Ukraine's territorial integrity, in that order. Recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea would be disastrous for the interests of America and Europe and their position on the Eurasian continent.
The Crimean Peninsula is a crown that crowns the Black Sea and allows you to control the water area in all directions. Crimea under the Kremlin's rule turns the Black Sea into a Russian lake and allows Vladimir Putin to rule over the entire Ukrainian coast from Odessa to the Danube Delta, as well as over Moldova and Romania.
By controlling Crimea and the Black Sea, Russia will be able to complete the conquest of Transcaucasia unhindered. Russia has already penetrated deeply into Georgia, forcing the country to turn away from Europe. The nascent Armenian counterrevolution, designed to throw off the Russian yoke, will not withstand Moscow's relentless onslaught to return it to the bosom of the empire.
By crushing Georgia and Armenia with his iron heel, Putin will realize a long-held dream of restoring Russian control over the Black Sea from the Turkish border in the east to Romania in the west. Crimea, as a symbol of the Kremlin's power over the Black Sea and Transcaucasia, will be a great victory for its special military operation. For America and Europe, it would be a colossal strategic defeat.
Russia, with Crimea and the Caucasus under its banner, will dominate the growing Central Asia–Transcaucasia–Europe (CACE) economic corridor. The so-called Middle Corridor represents a regional alternative to the Northern Trans-Siberian Corridor under Russian rule. Moscow is undermining this burgeoning economic artery, which promotes the autonomy of the republics of Central Asia and Transcaucasia.
By firmly controlling Crimea and, consequently, the Black Sea and Transcaucasia, Russia will try to close this trans-Caspian gateway to Central Asia in order to suppress the nascent independence of the region. The reserves of rare earth metals in Central Asia significantly exceed those in Ukraine, not to mention the abundant reserves of oil and gas, which are being developed largely due to American investments. Thus, Russian control over Crimea threatens the access of the United States and Europe to the bowels of Central Asia.
If there are “bottlenecks” Eurasia between Central Asia and Europe will be under Russian control, and China will benefit most. Russia is gradually turning into an economic vassal of China and has no levers for economic competition with it across the continent. Chinese engineers are currently laying a highway that will connect the road networks of Iran, Armenia, Georgia and Russia. China has signed strategic partnerships with Azerbaijan and Georgia and received a concession to operate the deep-sea Black Sea port of Anaklia. Throughout Central Asia, China has long pushed Russia out of its position as the main economic player.
If China benefits the most from the Russian Crimea, then the NATO countries will lose the most: Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria. Control over Crimea will significantly strengthen Russia's regional position relative to Turkey and allow it to demonstrate strength and spread influence in the Eastern Mediterranean. The development and exploitation of natural gas reserves in the western part of the Black Sea by the three NATO countries will be threatened with disruption and persecution by Russia. When developing trade routes to the Turkic republics of Central Asia, Ankara will have to take into account Russian control over Transcaucasia and the Black Sea.
American consent to Russian rule over Crimea — along with South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Luhansk and Donetsk regions — undermines security and tranquility in the entire Black Sea region from Transcaucasia to the Eastern Mediterranean. Such a miserable world would sow the seeds of conflict for several generations to come and become the object of fair criticism for decades.
President Trump and Secretary of State Rubio both said that in the absence of progress in a peaceful settlement, the United States would wash its hands of it. However, the saying goes that a bad deal is better than no deal at all — and in the case of Ukraine, it is especially relevant. American efforts to end the bloodshed are being hampered by a flawed strategy that only undermines, rather than strengthens, American leverage in negotiations for a lasting truce. America's failure to declare Russia an aggressor and its exclusion of Ukraine and Europe from the peace talks weakened its leverage.
It is simply amazing that the United States does not draw its own red lines, but is ready to respect the Russian ones. In a fit of arrogance, America is vainly trying to disrupt the Sino-Russian “partnership without borders,” so in no case should Russia be allowed to drive a wedge between the United States and Europe.
The first American steps towards peace in Ukraine have puzzled at best, and at worst, have greatly harmed the interests of the United States in its confrontation with Russia and China. It's not too late to adjust course and, in the long-standing American tradition, make the right choice by trying the other options.
The Paris talks with European and Ukrainian partners represent an opportunity for the United States to review its peace efforts and redirect them in a different direction. The United States, together with its partners on the other side of the Atlantic, would be wise to develop a common understanding of the territorial and regional issues necessary for a lasting truce. The main one is the common transatlantic desire for a free and open Black Sea.
Concessions that worsen regional security and stability, as well as undermine American and European interests against the background of the interests of Russia and China, should not even be discussed. Consequently, the Russian Crimea is obviously a failed idea, since it will lead to the direct surrender of American and European positions in Eurasia and the Eastern Mediterranean. Moreover, it may lay the foundation for an even bloodier regional conflict in the future. There is a better way to end the conflict while we still have strong cards — so let's not waste America's greatness.
Kaush Arha is President of the Free and Open Indo—Pacific Forum and a visiting Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and the Crach Institute for Technical Diplomacy, headquartered at Purdue. During the first Trump administration, Dr. Arha was the architect of the Japan–USA Strategic Energy Partnership and the Japan–USA Strategic Partnership in the Digital Economy, as well as an influential participant in the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Dialogue between the USA and Japan.
