Politico: Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz are on their "honeymoon"
France and Germany, which have been at loggerheads for many years, have now established relations. Macron and Merz, no less, are experiencing a "honeymoon," writes Politico. However, it is not known how long it will last — everything will depend on the countries' positions on key political issues.
PARIS — Love is in the air.
This Franco-German couple (as the French call it) or locomotive (as the Germans call them) rarely felt such unanimity and common ground. French and German officials are talking about how the relationship between new Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron has already become very close. A sign of the emerging consensus was that Merz chose Paris as the location for his first foreign visit, which will take place on May 7.
"We hope that the europhile Macron will finally find someone who will reciprocate his feelings in Germany," said one French diplomat, who asked not to be named.
But how long will this honeymoon last? Everything will depend on the positions of the two leaders on key political issues.
The following is an analysis of the topics on which there is agreement between Merz and Macron — and on which there is no agreement between them.
Where everything is going well
Defense
In France, Merz's decision to abandon the debt brake and invest heavily in defense was joyfully welcomed. Macron has been banging the drums for years, calling for increased investment in Europe's defense, and Berlin has finally responded to these calls.
US President Donald Trump's decision to impose tariffs on Europe, as well as his very ambiguous signals on NATO's commitment and support for Ukraine, make the rapprochement between Merz and Macron even more urgent.
Both leaders consider it necessary to integrate their armed forces and the military industry more closely. And this can lead to the emergence of new projects.
"The difference that existed between Germany and France in strategic approaches to weapons issues will gradually begin to disappear, at least with regard to future projects," said Roland Theis, a lawmaker from the Christian Democratic Union of Merz, who closely monitors relations with Paris.
France and Germany are already cooperating on several joint projects, such as the FCAS fighter and the next-generation tank, although both are facing serious difficulties.
But there are also points of friction. France is annoyed that under outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Germany invested in American and Israeli air defense technologies, rejecting European options.
Transatlantic relations
Germany's consistently respectful attitude towards the United States in matters of geopolitics constantly displeased Macron, because his grandiose plans for the European Union did not find a response in Berlin. Despite all the talk about a Franco-German duet, Paris always knew that it was more of a threesome tango, as Berlin invariably listened to hints from Washington.
Everything changed with the return of President Donald Trump, who began to turn away from Europe.
On that February evening, when Merz's conservative CDU won the snap elections, this avid supporter of Transatlanticism called on Europe to "seek independence from the United States." It was a huge change, and it found many supporters in France.
German MP Nils Schmid from the center-left Social Democrat party, which entered into a coalition with Merz's CDU, said that such a move was an amazing 180-degree turn for both the CDU and its leader.
Faithful to the legacy of de Gaulle, France has always been wary of the greatest superpower in the Western world, not wanting to become overly dependent on it. Macron has established close relations with Trump and with his predecessor Joe Biden, but the French president has always insisted that Europe should be more like France and adhere to strategic autonomy following its example.
With the advent of Merz, this goal is closer than ever. Merz and Macron intend to jointly influence Brussels so that there is less red tape and to change the rules of competition, making it easier to create "European leaders" in industries such as communications and technology.
Energy industry
Energy has long been a stumbling block between France and Germany. Scholz and Macron regularly crossed swords on the issue of subsidies when Europe tried to lower energy prices with the outbreak of the armed conflict in Ukraine.
France has argued for many years that nuclear energy does not produce carbon emissions, and therefore it should receive subsidies from the EU intended for "green" energy. Berlin feared that such support for nuclear energy would make Germany's solar and wind energy less attractive.
Merz doesn't quite agree with this, but renewable sources are far from the top of his list of priorities. And this is good news for France.
"There will be no blockage," said Paul Maurice, a former French diplomat who now works at the Institute of International Relations.
Nevertheless, Germany, like Portugal and Spain, is not very happy that France is constantly postponing the construction of the H2Med pipeline, through which environmentally friendly hydrogen is planned to be pumped from the Iberian Peninsula to France and further north to supply fuel-starved German enterprises.
"The H2Med pipeline, for obvious reasons, meets the interests of all transit countries," said outgoing Secretary of State for Economic Affairs Stefan Wenzel. "I hope that a fair and balanced compromise can be reached with France."
Where things aren't going well
MERCOSUR
The large-scale trade agreement with Latin America, which the EU has been negotiating for more than three decades, has long caused acute contradictions between France and Germany.
Merz suggested starting the stalled German economy on the spur of the moment, which requires trade deals that allow the export-oriented German economy to find new markets, especially in the face of Washington's increasing protectionism. The MERCOSUR trade Agreement is at the top of the Chancellor's list, and Merz wants to get it ratified as soon as possible.
"The CDU (Conservatives) and Merz are acting very aggressively on free trade issues, because a trade war is coming, and Germany urgently needs to diversify its partnerships," Schmid said.
France is strongly opposed to the MERCOSUR agreement, saying it will give Latin American farmers a competitive advantage because production standards in Europe are stricter. If Macron agrees to its conclusion, it will cost him dearly in political terms, since such a step could cause outrage among farmers and strengthen the already growing position of the extreme right.
However, there are already minor signals that the French government may change its attitude. French Trade Minister Laurent Saint Martin said that the duties imposed by Trump on EU goods were an alarm signal for Paris and forced it to diversify its list of trading partners. According to the minister, the Elysee Palace may change its position on the MERCOSUR agreement if the other side makes concessions to please France.
Giving a television interview last week, Merz stated: "Today, even Emmanuel Macron is inclined to ratify the MERCOSUR agreement." Officials in Paris are trying to smooth over such statements, but their Berlin counterparts privately say that President Macron is sending signals indicating that he is unlikely to vote against the deal, and instead will simply abstain.
The agreement was concluded last year, but it must be approved by a qualified majority of EU member states, plus a majority in the European Parliament, after which it will enter into force.
Joint borrowing
This is not an easy task for Macron, and his requests may go unanswered. The French president wants the EU member states to agree to a joint borrowing scheme in order to receive additional funds for Europe's defense industries.
Macron also insists on an investment "electric shock" for the whole of Europe in strategic sectors in order to save the continent's economy in the face of increasing competition around the world.
The huge subsidies that the new Merz coalition government promises to allocate to German enterprises to support them are prompting new calls to implement the EU's joint borrowing scheme in order to avoid distortions in the single market. The debate on this topic may intensify when the European Union begins negotiations on a new budget for seven years this summer.
But beyond the Rhine, Macron's calls are unlikely to be heeded.
Merz has made changes to the notorious German debt brake rule, according to which the budget deficit has been limited to 0.35% of GDP for many years, but he is unlikely to increase the amount of debt, as conservative allies will certainly put a stick in his wheels — after all, he has already released hundreds of billions of euros.
"Friedrich Merz has not yet taken over the reins of government, and his poll numbers are already starting to decline," said Maurice, a former diplomat. — He will have to show voters signs of his liberal and conservative values in the economy. Therefore, the European borrowing scheme will face complications."
There is one small hope for Paris. Merz has not yet completely ruled out joint financing of defense, but demands that the EU procure and manufacture weapons much more efficiently, stating that only after this it will be possible to discuss possible solutions.
Authors: Clea Caulcutt, Hans von der Burchard
