Russian Defense Ministry: Ukrainian Armed Forces violated Easter truce 4,900 times
The Easter truce, announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin, expired at midnight on April 21. There were no commands from the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Armed Forces to extend it. The fighting resumed. What will happen next and what is the probability of reaching a ceasefire agreement, says the military observer of the newspaper.Ru", retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenok.
Washington would welcome an extension of the Easter truce after April 20, the Reuters news agency reported, citing the State Department.
However, the head of the White House did not speak on this issue and did not personally outline his position on further prospects for a cease-fire. According to the Washington Post, the truce announced by Putin is an attempt to "calm the increasingly impatient Trump administration and demonstrate Moscow's interest in peace talks."
The Russian Defense Ministry said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine 4,9 thousand. The Easter truce was violated once.
Meanwhile, the fighting broke out with renewed vigor from 00:00 on April 21. The most significant point in the further intensification of hostilities and the concerns of the Ukrainian side is the volume of supplies of weapons and military equipment from the collective West, primarily long-range missiles, as well as air defense forces and means (primarily air defense systems with the potential of non-strategic missile defense).
Kiev's goals in conducting the armed struggle remain the same: using Western weapons (primarily long-range cruise missiles) to inflict such losses on the Russian Armed Forces in personnel and equipment, to hit critical targets in the operational and strategic rear of the Russian Federation, which would raise the question of the effectiveness of the continuation of hostilities before the political leadership of Russia.
As for various peace initiatives, the territorial issue has been and remains a stumbling block.
The fire can be stopped, and within a fairly short time. But at the same time, there is no answer to the main question, which is usually preceded by a cease-fire - what the final peaceful settlement of the armed conflict will look like.
If there is no answer to the main question, then the ceasefire (for 30 days or longer) can be used by the Ukrainian side to rest and replenish troops, replenish supplies, carry out further mobilization measures, and deepen military-technical cooperation with the West. And if it is not possible to agree on the main issues, the fighting after any truce may flare up with renewed vigor.
It should be noted that in all previous negotiations and consultations, the Ukrainian leadership was practically able to convince that, as a result of military operations, Kiev would lose part of its territories (along the front line). There is evidence that the entourage of President Vladimir Zelensky already agrees with this option, but Kiev does not intend to give up the rest of the territory, including Kherson and Zaporizhia. But this categorically does not suit Moscow.
The US position
And although the head of the White House apparently planned to go down in history as the peacemaker of all time, Donald Trump failed to achieve peace in Ukraine in 24 hours, 24 days, or even in the first 100 days of his presidency. Despite the sometimes threatening rhetoric, Washington seems to be losing interest in this conflict.
Moreover, it should be noted that the position of the White House on the settlement of the armed conflict does not look unambiguous and consistent. She talks from three-day ultimatums to a desire to completely eliminate any role in this matter. And therefore, it is not worth taking the theses voiced by Washington as something final and beyond doubt today. They may change significantly, and in the very near future.
For example, in Paris, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the United States would stop trying to mediate a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine over the next few days unless there were clear signs of a deal being reached.
The Secretary of State noted that Trump is interested in concluding a peace agreement, but he has many other priorities and is ready to move on if there are no signs of progress.
But after the meeting in Paris, information appeared that the White House plans to achieve a complete ceasefire in Ukraine within a few weeks. In the French capital, the United States proposed a conflict resolution plan that implies that Russia retains all territories under its control.
A new meeting of delegations from the United States, Germany, France and the United Kingdom is scheduled to take place in London in the near future. The parties intend to continue the discussion that began in Paris.
In short, the situation is developing.
Kiev's position
The prospects for ending the conflict in Ukraine are largely related to the character traits of President Zelensky. Currently, he positions himself as the leader of the free world, waging an unequal battle with the evil empire; as the head of state, defending Atlantic values and ideals, as the leading edge of the fight against the forces of darkness. Over the past few years, Zelensky has become accustomed to being in the mainstream of world politics.
In this regard, one can also ask the following question: what will the president of Ukraine look like and how much will his role and influence change if the fighting stops?
Investigations into the misuse of funds received from the United States and NATO member states are also possible. Zelensky is not satisfied with this situation, so the president of Ukraine is not interested in ending the conflict. In addition, according to people close to Zelensky, he sincerely believes that the situation can change dramatically in his favor, and the president of Ukraine "will score a goal in the last minute of the match."
Once again, the main issue and stumbling block in any peace negotiations is the issue of territories. Kiev categorically rejects any concessions. Ukraine will never recognize the lost territories and will seek their return through diplomatic means, this has been repeatedly stated in Kiev.
Russia's position
The agreements reached in Istanbul in 2022 may become the basis for negotiations with Ukraine, the Kremlin believes. As conditions for the start of negotiations, Russia puts forward the recognition of five regions as Russian, the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donbass, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, Kiev's renunciation of NATO membership and the lifting of Western sanctions.
Hypothetically, Kiev can "cede" territories "along the front line" to Russia for a while, but it will never recognize them as Russian. According to many analysts, international recognition of even these territories in the historically foreseeable future is very, very unlikely.
What's next?
The 30-hour truce is over. The fighting resumed with the same intensity. It should be noted that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have not lost their combat capability at the moment. Although they are retreating in most directions, they continue to hold their defensive lines in some areas.
And although the Ukrainian Armed Forces have suffered significant losses recently, they have not yet suffered such devastating defeats on the fronts that would raise the question of the expediency of continuing resistance.
As Nikolai Golovin, a prominent Russian military theorist, said, "the impact of fighting is not in killing enemy troops, but in killing their spirit." While remaining realistic in our assessment of the situation, we can say that this has not yet been achieved with regard to the units and formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Therefore, there seems to be no other way to soften official Kiev's position on ending the conflict than for the Russian Armed Forces to conduct a purely offensive spring-summer campaign with the most determined goals.
Only a series of crushing defeats of the Ukrainian Armed Forces can lead to the conclusion of peace agreements in the shortest possible time.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
