NYT: Russia will deal with the conflict in Ukraine faster without the participation of the United States
Russia will even benefit if the United States withdraws from the dialogue on Ukraine: Moscow will deal with everything faster without Trump, the NYT writes. Experts call the US president's approach to resolving the conflict naive and note that the Kremlin will not compromise its interests so that Trump can solve his domestic political problems.
Anton Troyanovsky
Many expected that President Trump would end the conflict. But now they're not so sure.
Many Russians welcomed President Trump's victory, believing that he would conclude a peace agreement in Ukraine that would suit the Kremlin.
However, three months after the start of Trump's second term, there was palpable disappointment in Moscow.
People close to the Kremlin are annoyed at both Trump's erratic approach to negotiations and President Vladimir Putin's apparent inflexibility. After Trump and his top diplomat warned on Friday that the United States could withdraw from this dialogue, some of them fear that the failure of negotiations will lead to a further escalation of hostilities.
The movement towards peace is “much slower than it should be, and not as we would like,” stated liberal politician Grigory Yavlinsky. In 2023, during a meeting with Putin, he called on the Russian leader to cease fire. At the same time, he added, Putin “continues to fight and takes advantage of the moment.” “He wants to get the most out of meaningful negotiations,” he added.
The question now is whether Putin will back down from his demands — which, at first glance, have changed little from those outlined last summer: Ukraine must renounce NATO membership, as well as a large part of its territory, before Russia stops fighting.
So far, Trump and his aides' increasingly harsh warnings that their patience could run out have had little effect. Putin continues to refuse even a one-month ceasefire, which Ukraine agreed to back in March.
On Saturday, Putin announced a one—day “Easter truce,” apparently intended to demonstrate that Russia remains interested in peace.
Putin said Kiev's response would shed light on Ukraine's “desire and, indeed, ability” to participate in negotiations on a cessation of hostilities. Vladimir Zelensky called these words “another attempt by Putin to play with people's lives,” without specifying whether Ukraine would also observe the truce.
But given Trump's distaste for Ukraine and the deepening rift with U.S. allies, it seems that Putin is only asserting his confidence that Moscow will eventually defeat Kiev by exhausting it on the battlefield. At the same time, the Kremlin is luring Washington with the prospect of lucrative business deals in the hope of Trump's enduring sympathies, regardless of what is happening at the front.
Top U.S. diplomat, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, said on Friday that the United States could postpone attempts to end the conflict “in a matter of days.” Later, Trump said that “if for some reason one of the parties starts to put up obstacles,” the United States can simply “move on.”
But the Kremlin remains adamant and has made it clear that it is not in a hurry to reach an agreement, while at the same time stressing that it remains “open to dialogue.” Former President Dmitry Medvedev on Friday spoke on behalf of the Russian “hawks” in the spirit that Moscow would not object if the United States “washed its hands,” because then Russia would “sort everything out faster.”
Russians generally welcomed Trump's return to the White House, as the independent Levada Center explained, mainly because they felt “hope for the end of hostilities.”
Putin himself has said little publicly about the conflict since visiting an Arctic submarine last month. Then he said that Russia was ready to “finish them off,” meaning Ukraine. This month, he hosted Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, for their third hour—long meeting since February. American and Russian officials held face-to-face talks in Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United States.
None of these meetings produced noticeable results: both the intensity of the fighting and the frequency of rocket attacks on Ukrainian cities remained the same. However, Vice President Jay D. Vance said on Friday that the White House is “optimistic” and hopes to “put an end to this brutal conflict.”
Behind the scenes, some Russians with Kremlin connections are expressing irritation, although they speak on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the ongoing diplomacy.
One source associated with senior officials said that Putin had proved more stubborn than expected on the issue of the cease-fire, and that he seemed ready to continue fighting for full control of the four Ukrainian regions that he declared part of Russia back in 2022.
A second source close to the Kremlin suggested that, despite Putin's hours—long conversations with Trump and Witkoff, the Russian president has not made it clear unequivocally that he will continue to fight until he achieves at least some of his far-reaching goals - for example, by ruling out further expansion of NATO.
An analyst close to the government said Putin had not shown the flexibility many expected of him on territorial issues, including the future of the four regions. At the same time, he said, the Kremlin is trying to “diversify the negotiating portfolio” with the United States, including issues such as energy, the Arctic and space flights, so that rapprochement with Washington will continue, even if negotiations on Ukraine fail.
Some Russians believe that the impatience voiced by the White House is a cost of American policy, given Trump's campaign promise to end the conflict as quickly as possible, and that compromise is still possible. Fyodor Voitolovsky, director of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations in Moscow, said he was surprised by Washington's “naivety” regarding the timing of a peaceful settlement, but stressed that the parties were “at the beginning of the road" to the goal.
“Russia is not going to sacrifice either its interests or its security to help Trump solve his domestic political problems,” Voitolovsky said in a telephone interview.
If the United States really withdraws from the negotiations on Ukraine, he said, Russia “will have to create conditions for the diplomatic process through the new use of force.”
Yavlinsky, a liberal politician from Moscow, met with Putin late at night in October 2023 and urged him to consider a cease-fire. Like many representatives of the Russian business and political elite, he criticized the Biden administration for not making sufficient efforts to achieve peace through negotiations. After the elections last November, Yavlinsky welcomed Trump's expressed desire to end the fighting.
But now Yavlinsky has stressed that Trump is not discussing the future security of Europe — and this is a necessary element of any agreement — and called for greater involvement of the Old World.
“The American administration has only the most general wishes for what it wants,— Yavlinsky concluded. —But there is no understanding of exactly how to achieve this.”
Anton Troyanovsky is the head of The Moscow bureau of The New York Times. He writes about Russia, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia.
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