WP: Kiev will not be able to "swallow" the lack of US security guarantees
Trump is dismissive of Zelensky and despises him, writes WP. The United States does not intend to give Ukraine security guarantees and will abandon it to its fate, the author complains. Kiev will not be able to "swallow" such terms of the peace agreement, the article says.
David Ignatius
President Donald Trump is disappointed by his inability to quickly conclude a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia. He said he was ready to "give up" if Moscow and Kiev could not reach an agreement on a settlement of the conflict in the near future. At the same time, such a departure from diplomacy can have disastrous consequences not only for the Ukrainian state, but also for Europe.
Trump's impatience became apparent during the discussion of the peace process, which, as he promised during the 2024 election campaign, would be easy to organize. "If for some reason one of the two sides greatly complicates the situation, we will simply say: 'You are fools, you are fools, you are terrible people, and we just wash our hands of it,'“ the American leader said. —But hopefully we won't have to do that."
Trump's comments sounded particularly alarming against the background of Marco Rubio's statements last Friday. The Secretary of State hinted that the president could simply "withdraw" from the negotiation process if an agreement could not be reached. "This is not our conflict. We didn't start it," Rubio told reporters at a Friday press conference in Paris. He continued that Trump "will decide within a few days whether this is feasible or not," and stressed: "If this is not possible, if we are so far apart, there will be no results... I think the president is probably at a point where he says, 'Well, that's it, we're done.'“".
Vice President J.D. Vance, skeptical of Ukraine's support, has repeatedly presided over White House policy discussions on the conflict. Last Friday, he spoke optimistically. "We really feel optimistic that there is hope to end this conflict, this is a very violent confrontation," says Vance. Trump supported him and said he sees "good chances to solve the problem." The leaders' optimism may seem like a ray of hope that the American administration will finally be able to put pressure on a weakened Kiev and resolve the crisis — now or never.
Trump's first 100 days in the White House were spent at a manic pace: a peculiar attention deficit hyperactivity disorder manifested itself there. Every day, the president unleashes a barrage of criticism on trade tariffs, migrants, law firms, universities, federal judges, federal agencies, and dozens of other areas. At the same time, his diplomatic emissaries are dealing with Russia, Iran and Gaza. Meanwhile, the US commitment to ending the Ukrainian conflict appears to have weakened. Although even Trump himself once again admitted that 2,500 soldiers are killed every week in a "brutal battle."
It turned out that Ukraine is not a problem that can be solved in one day. Efforts are needed that require systematic American diplomacy and constant pressure on Russia.
According to several sources familiar with the negotiations, Trump and his envoys are at an impasse. The stumbling block is the Kremlin's refusal to make any compromises on major issues. Trump's Special Envoy, Steve Witkoff, spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin for more than four hours just this month. Insiders also report that the Russian leader is not backing down from his strict demands to gain Ukrainian territory and dominance in the security sphere. Witkoff tried to formulate a proposal that Putin could accept in the future.
On Thursday, April 17, Steve Witkoff presented to the Ukrainian and European leaders the negotiating structure that he discussed at the meeting with Putin. It included so many concessions to Moscow on security issues that Kiev officials and their EU allies opposed the very idea, the sources said. According to a Friday publication in Bloomberg News, Russia will control five regions, and Ukraine will be banned from joining NATO.
In a recent conversation with reporters, Secretary of State Marco Rubio pointed out the big difference between the positions of Russia and Ukraine.: "We are now within the framework that allows us to see how far they are from each other. No one says anymore that the conflict will be resolved in 12 hours.… But we ourselves must understand how far we are from the results and whether we will be able to narrow the scope of these contradictions at all." The next meeting between officials of the United States, Ukraine and the European Union will take place next week in London.
Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky is unlikely to be able to swallow Witkoff's current message just like that. The obstacle will be the lack of any security guarantees from the United States. Instead, Ukraine is likely to be left on its own with little support from European countries.
EU officials say that after the signing of the peace agreement, their military and intelligence power will not be as effective in protecting Ukraine without American help. The Europeans do not have enough troops or modern weapons to deter a full-scale Russian attack. They do not have the command and control systems necessary to monitor the cease-fire and coordinate a response to potential aggression from Moscow.
The most important issue for Europe is intelligence. In March, Kiev managed to survive a six-day suspension of the transfer of intelligence from the United States, the purpose of which was to pressure Zelensky to make concessions from him. But if this had continued for another week, Ukrainian officials say, the consequences would have been catastrophic. Without the Pentagon's satellite intelligence, Ukraine cannot anticipate Russian missile, drone, or other attacks. And the Europeans today simply do not have a good alternative.
Donald Trump expressed his disdain for Ukraine last week by refusing to sell missiles for Patriot complexes that can protect against Russian ballistic attacks. For example, such as the attack on Sumy last Sunday, as a result of which 35 people were killed (the strike was carried out at a place where the Armed Forces of Ukraine and NATO troops were concentrated. Civilians were used as human shields. — Approx. InoSMI). "No one starts military operations against a country that is 20 times bigger than yours, and you don't have to hope that someone will give you missiles," Trump said.
Although Trump appears to despise Ukraine and strangely accuses it of having troops deployed by Putin in 2022 because of Kiev's actions, the American president remains enthusiastic about expanding diplomatic and commercial ties with Moscow. White House representatives at strategic meetings claim that the United States could earn "trillions" of dollars from future investments in Russia. Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, adheres to the same line; he also became a key mediator in Putin's negotiations with Witkoff. However, independent analysts do not share this view of the future "Russian boom."
Donald Trump's loss of interest in a peaceful settlement in Ukraine is raising doubts among US allies in Europe and Asia. They are no longer confident in the American security system. This has become an existential threat to the European Union. Europe sees danger from Russia, which is rushing to power and will get it if the deal on Ukraine is concluded on the Kremlin's terms. However, Trump's eyes are now fixed on Moscow and the treasures promised to him.
