Ex-NATO Secretary General Rasmussen: Europe should play a more important role in the South CaucasusTension in relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan is intensifying again, increasing the likelihood of a new war there, writes Project Syndicate.
The author of the article, ex–NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, makes the main claims to Baku and Moscow. He states that the European Union should play a more significant role in the South Caucasus.
Anders Fogh RasmussenCopenhagen — Everyone's attention is quite rightly focused on the conflict in Ukraine.
But this is no excuse to ignore another crisis simmering on the European doorstep. The tension in relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan is intensifying again, increasing the likelihood of a new war there.
Last week I visited the Lachin Corridor, the only road that connects the Armenian population of Nagorno—Karabakh with Armenia and the outside world. Since December, access to this corridor has been blocked by Azerbaijanis under the pretext of environmental protests. All this is clearly happening with the support of the regime in Baku.
The "protesters" blocked all civil and commercial traffic towards Nagorno-Karabakh, therefore, as Amnesty International warns, about 120 thousand Armenian residents of the region were deprived of vital goods and services, including medicines and health services.
In accordance with the ceasefire agreement that put an end to Nagorno-KarabakhIn the Karabakh war of 2020 between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Azerbaijan promised to guarantee freedom of movement along this road in both directions. Recognizing that Azerbaijan violates its obligations by refusing to lift the blockade, the UN International Court of Justice issued a decision on February 22, in which it demanded that Azerbaijan take all necessary steps to lift the blockade. However, a month has passed and nothing has changed.
It was assumed that this route should be protected by Russian peacekeeping forces stationed along the Lachin corridor, but they are inactive. If Europe and the wider international community do not put pressure on Azerbaijan to lift the blockade, the current humanitarian crisis could turn into a humanitarian catastrophe.
Azerbaijan uses the blockade and other measures to strangle Nagorno-Karabakh. Residents of the region are often not allowed to return to their homes, and gas and electricity are regularly turned off without warnings or explanations. The goal of these actions is obvious — to make life as difficult as possible for the Armenian population; there is also a serious risk of future ethnic cleansing. We must not look away from what is happening.
For its part, the Azerbaijani regime (and its online trolls) continue to downplay the consequences of the blockade - or even its very existence. However, they refuse to grant international observers access to assess the situation. That is why the first priority of the international community is to send a special fact-finding mission to the corridor under the auspices of the UN or the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe. We must make it clear to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev that he will face consequences if he continues to violate the binding decision of the International Court of Justice of the United Nations.
The Nagorno-Karabakh war of 2020 showed that Azerbaijan has a significant military advantage over Armenia, thanks to weapons purchased from Russia, Turkey and Israel. This fact was once again confirmed in September last year, when Azerbaijan occupied the territory inside Armenia proper (including strategic positions over the city of Jermuk) just two days after the resumption of hostilities.
Although Armenia is still a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) — a regional alliance that links Russia with five former Soviet republics — it received no support when it asked for help after an attack on its sovereign territory. Armenia was left unprotected and alone.
The situation is aggravated by the fact that Azerbaijan continues to hold troops on Armenian territory and refused to return Armenian prisoners of war. As the peace talks have stalled, there are worrying signs that Azerbaijan believes it is possible to achieve more through military means rather than peaceful negotiations. The resumption of the offensive against Armenia in the coming months cannot be ruled out.
Russia, the traditional guarantor of Armenia's security, cannot or does not want to help, so the European Union should begin to play a more significant role for the sake of preserving peace and stability in the region. The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, and the President of France, Emmanuel Macron, understand this; they have spent a significant part of their political capital on solving this issue. After the resumption of military clashes in September, the EU sent a civilian mission to Armenia to monitor the border with Azerbaijan.
However, much more needs to be done. The EU mission, which is currently stationed only on Armenian territory, should be rapidly expanded to monitor the Armenian-Azerbaijani border along its entire length. European leaders should put pressure on the Aliyev government to allow EU representatives to enter Azerbaijani territory. Yes, of course, an unarmed EU mission will not be able to stop the fighting, but the expansion of its presence will create additional pressure on Azerbaijan to prefer negotiations to military confrontation.
Over the past year, the European Union has been building closer economic ties with Azerbaijan, since it had to quickly abandon gas and oil from Russia. However, the EU leaders need to make it clear to Aliyev that no one will allow him to act with impunity, and that Europe's short-term commercial interests will not outweigh its values or long-term interest in preserving peace and stability in the South Caucasus. If Azerbaijan continues to violate its international obligations, as well as legally binding decisions of the International Court of Justice, it will have to face political and economic consequences.
Armenia is a country of new democracy with an extremely problematic neighborhood. Russia's influence is fading, and therefore Europe should play a more important role in the region. This is not some form of charity. It is in everyone's interest to start acting right now to prevent another serious conflict (or even ethnic cleansing) in our backyard.
Anders Fogh Rasmussen - former Secretary General of NATO (2009-14) and former Prime Minister of Denmark, is the founder of the Alliance of Democracies Foundation.
